Ravens 2025 Season in Review

Derrick Henry ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns at age 31, and the Ravens still missed the playoffs. That's the headline. Here's how the league's number one rushing attack got dragged down by a passing game in the bottom third of football, why a defense that couldn't get to the quarterback bled out in the first six weeks, and the one stat that explains an 8-and-9 season better than any other. Eight and nine. No playoffs. The number one team in the AFC's non-playoff pile. The Ravens didn't get muffed by one thing — they got muffed by a slow start they spent the rest of the year trying to outrun.

Team-level numbers first. Baltimore finished plus 32.5 in total offensive expected points added — 12th in the league, 66th percentile. Solid, not spectacular. The defense allowed plus 26 expected points added, ranking 20th — and on defense you want that number deeply negative, so plus 26 is a below-average year. The schedule tells the rest. They opened 1-and-5, with losses by 17 to the Chiefs, 34 to the Texans, and 14 to the Rams. Then five straight wins, Week 8 through Week 12. Then three losses in four. Boom-or-bust doesn't capture it — this was a contender for one month and a bottom-feeder for two.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. This is where the season cratered. Baltimore's passing expected points added came in at minus 16.7 on 469 attempts — negative 0.04 per dropback, 23rd in the league, 31st percentile. Below average, full stop. Lamar Jackson's completion percentage over expected was minus 2.2, 29th among qualified starters. The Ravens also gave up 45 sacks on 503 dropbacks — a 9 percent sack rate, fourth-worst in football. A quarterback completing fewer passes than expected, a line getting him hit constantly, and Jackson missing four games on top of it. Zay Flowers was the lone bright spot: 86 catches, 1,211 yards, 5 touchdowns on 118 targets. When Flowers wasn't open, this passing game had nothing.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because the other half of the story is spectacular. Baltimore finished number one in the league in rushing expected points added at plus 42.2 — 100th percentile, the best ground game in football by that measure. 5.3 yards per carry, second in the league. 156.6 rushing yards per game. Elite from Week 1 to Week 18. The engine was Derrick Henry — 307 carries, 1,595 yards, 5.2 a pop, 16 rushing touchdowns, second in the NFL. His rushing yards over expected came in at plus 340.1 total, plus 1.1 per attempt, third among qualified runners. That's 340 more yards than a league-average back would have managed on the same carries. The problem wasn't the run game. The problem was that you can't run your way out of a 34-point deficit, and Baltimore was in too many of those early.

Next up, the pass defense — and this is where the 1-and-5 start really came from. Baltimore allowed plus 47.76 expected points added through the air, a 31st-percentile pass defense. They generated just 30 sacks all season, 29th in the league, 13th percentile. Almost nobody got to the quarterback less often than the Ravens. The one thing the secondary did well was take the ball away — 21 total takeaways, 11 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries, 13th in the league, and the takeaways could be electric when they came. In the Week 15 shutout of the Bengals, Kyle Van Noy picked off Joe Burrow at the Baltimore 5 with the Ravens up 17-nothing, and the play turned into an 84-yard lateral-and-run touchdown — a negative 11 expected-points swing on a single snap. The kind of moment that wins playoff games. The Ravens just didn't generate enough of them, and without a real pass rush behind it, opposing quarterbacks had all day.

And the run defense was a quiet strength. Baltimore allowed minus 21.79 expected points added on the ground — negative, which is what you want on defense — at minus 0.05 per carry, 81st percentile, steady all year. They held opponents to 107.9 rushing yards a game. So if you're trying to explain how a team with the league's best rushing offense and a top-tier run defense still finished 8-and-9, the answer is right in front of you — the passing game on both sides of the ball got muffed. The Ravens won the line of scrimmage on the ground. They lost it through the air. And in 2025, that math doesn't add up to January football.