Caleb Williams 2026 Season Preview — a top-5 finish on bottom-tier accuracy | Muffed

Caleb Williams finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in total points last season — and graded as one of the least accurate passers in the league. Both are true, and together they're why his price is almost exactly right. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The 2025 season was a real step forward in fantasy terms: seventeen games, eighteen-six a game, QB8 per game and QB5 in total, on thirty-nine forty-two passing yards, twenty-seven touchdowns, seven picks, plus three hundred eighty-three rushing yards. The signature was a thirty-nine point eruption against Cincinnati in Week 9. Year two under Ben Johnson, and the points went up.

The arc is encouraging on the surface: fifteen a game as a rookie, eighteen-six in year two. Ascending, with an offensive-minded head coach and a young receiving corps growing up around him.

But here's the number that holds the call at neutral, and it's the one we trust most. Williams's completion percentage over expected was minus six-point-nine — thirty-sixth in the league, near the very bottom. His QB8 fantasy finish was built on volume, scrambling, and scheme, not on accurate passing. His adjusted net yards per attempt was better, around eleventh, so it isn't all bleak — but a quarterback completing nearly seven percent below expectation is not yet efficient, and that's the engine that has to improve for the points to hold.

[[SITUATION]]

The situation, per the reports, is the bull case for why the accuracy could come — and the team has put a number on it: it's year two in Ben Johnson's system, and Johnson has publicly set a seventy-percent completion goal for a quarterback who completed fifty-eight percent last season — the staff is literally tracking accuracy daily at OTAs, citing "80 or 90 throws on tape that could have been completions." Williams calls year one "drowning" and year two "starting what we finished." The young weapons — Odunze, Burden, Loveland — are a year better, even with DJ Moore traded away. Continuity, scheme, and a stated accuracy project are exactly what a developing quarterback needs.

The price: pick sixty-six, the sixth quarterback. [pause] Verdict: NO CALL — he finished QB5 in total points and he's priced QB6, and that one-spot gap is the market fairly pricing an ascending quarterback whose underlying accuracy still says "prove it." The counter cuts both ways: if the Johnson scheme fixes the accuracy, QB6 is cheap; if the minus-seven CPOE is who he is, the fantasy points regress and the price is right, maybe a touch high. A fair number on a fascinating, unfinished player — pay it knowing the accuracy is the swing.

September watch: the completion percentage over expected — the entire question of whether the QB5 finish is real; and the rushing volume, the points that travel regardless. [[CLOSE]] He's one of your guys? This show covers your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.