Justin Herbert 2026 Season Preview — a new scheme balances a turnover year | Muffed

Justin Herbert was accurate as ever last season — and threw thirteen interceptions and finished QB11. Now he's got a brand-new offense and a wave of new weapons. The pluses and minuses cancel out almost exactly at his price. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The 2025 season was a tale of accuracy undone by mistakes: sixteen games, seventeen-nine a game, QB11 per game, on thirty-seven hundred passing yards and twenty-six touchdowns — but thirteen interceptions, the number that capped him. His completion percentage over expected ranked eighth, genuinely good; his adjusted net yards per attempt only twenty-fourth, dragged down by the picks and sacks. The signature was a thirty point, three-hundred-yard, two-score game with a rushing touchdown against Dallas in Week 16. The talent's never been the question.

The arc is a slide from an elite start: twenty-two a game in each of his first two seasons, then four straight years in the sixteen-to-eighteen range. He's been a good-not-great fantasy quarterback for a while now, and the early ceiling hasn't returned.

What the data says: he's a pocket passer — about twenty percent rushing share — so he lacks the structural rushing floor that makes the position's safest bets safe, and his fantasy value rides on passing volume and turnovers, the more variable stuff. The accuracy says the talent is intact; the interceptions and the middling efficiency say the production has a leak.

[[SITUATION]]

The situation, per the reports, is the bull case that balances it: a new coordinator in Mike McDaniel — whose scheme has produced big passing numbers — plus a wave of added weapons and a healthy elite offensive line. There's real "bounce-back" buzz, even MVP talk. New scheme, better protection, more help.

The price: pick seventy-seven and a half, QB8. Verdict: NO CALL — he finished QB10-to-11, he's priced QB8, and the modest premium is the market fairly pricing the McDaniel-scheme upside against a turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor profile. The counter both ways: if McDaniel unlocks the efficiency, QB8 is cheap; if the interceptions persist, the price is a touch high. A fair number on a high-variance bet — and one you can wait on at quarterback.

September watch: the interception rate — the one thing that has to improve; and the passing efficiency in McDaniel's scheme, the source of any leap. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.