Trevor Lawrence 2026 Season Preview — an MVP finalist at QB10 | Muffed

Trevor Lawrence was an MVP finalist last season — the number-four fantasy quarterback in total points, QB1 on a per-game basis down the stretch. He's the tenth quarterback off the board. That's a steep discount on a career year. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The 2025 season was the breakout the draft slot always promised: nineteen-nine a game, QB5 per game and QB4 in total, on four thousand passing yards, twenty-nine touchdowns, twelve picks, plus three hundred fifty-nine rushing yards and nine rushing scores in Liam Coen's first year. The signature was a five-touchdown, forty-four point eruption against the Jets in Week 15. Down the second-half stretch he was the QB1, period.

The arc is a player finally arriving: eleven-seven, seventeen-four, sixteen-four, fourteen-five — and then a career-best nineteen-nine. The Coen system unlocked him, and the comfort should only grow in year two.

Now the honest accounting, because we don't oversell. His rushing share, twenty-seven percent, puts him in the rushing-floor tier — the profile our research says repeats top-six at sixty-one percent versus twenty-four for pocket passers — which is the structural reason the floor is real. But two cautions: nine rushing touchdowns is a number that regresses, and his accuracy was actually mediocre, a completion percentage over expected near the bottom of the league. So this wasn't an efficiency masterpiece; it was a volume-and-rushing-driven QB4 finish. The point is, even granting both caveats, a QB4 finish with a rushing floor priced at QB10 is too cheap.

[[SITUATION]]

The situation, per the reports, is the bull case: a second year in Coen's fantasy-friendly system, a loaded receiver room, and a coach who says there's "so much room to continue to improve." Quarterback and scheme continuity is exactly what carries a breakout forward.

The price: pick eighty-one, the tenth quarterback. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. He finished QB4 with a genuine rushing floor and an ascending offense, and he's priced QB10. The counter: the nine rushing scores regress, the accuracy needs to catch up to the production, and you can wait on quarterback. But the gap between a QB4 finish and a QB10 price is the value, and the floor underneath it is the safe kind.

September watch: the rushing volume — the floor; and whether the accuracy climbs in year two of the system, the thing that would make him elite rather than merely underpriced. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.