Atlanta Falcons — 2026 season outlook, updated Oct 14, 2026.
Atlanta Falcons finished the 2026 season 2-3.
Atlanta Falcons: 8-9 regular season.
Based on verified play-by-play data (nflverse).
By the numbers — 2026
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2026 schedule
- Bye week 11 — see all 2026 byes.
- 4th-hardest schedule — opponents average 8.79 projected wins.
- Falcons backfield and handcuffs — depth chart, refreshed daily.
Falcons players we cover
Falcons 23, Ravens 30 — Week 5: Three Field Goals, One Overtime Pick
Atlanta lost 30-23 in overtime at home to Baltimore on Sunday night after leading 23-15 with 2:35 left; the passing game was worth +6.2 expected points and the offense converted 9 of 17 third downs, but the offense reached the end zone once, the run game finished at -7.5, and Kyle Hamilton intercepted Tua Tagovailoa to end it.
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More episodes
- Camp · Sep 3, 2026
Falcons Camp — Sep 3: Harrison Waived Monday, Back Wednesday
Atlanta claimed three players off waivers Monday — two edge players and a tackle — and paid for them by waiving Zach Harrison, a former third-round pick the beat expected to start on the defensive line. He cleared unclaimed and was back on the practice squad Wednesday. JD Bertrand went to injured reserve the same Monday with Josh Woods promoted, and the quarterback job is still "not yet," per Ian Cunningham.
- Camp · Aug 31, 2026
Falcons Camp — Aug 31: Four Quarterbacks, No Starter
Atlanta set its 53 with four quarterbacks on it, per Pro Football Talk, and no named starter, while Ian Rapoport reports the job is "Michael Penix's job for the taking." The Falcons also traded cornerback Clark Phillips III and a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Bears for defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr., pending a physical — and the edge battle our last episode tracked ended with both contenders off the roster.
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Falcons Camp — Aug 23: Penix Cleared for Team Drills
Michael Penix Jr. is cleared for eleven-on-eleven work for the first time since November knee surgery, with his first team periods set for Monday — and no starter named with one preseason game left. Undrafted rookie Jack Strand threw for two hundred twelve yards in a thirty-four-to-six rout of the Colts, and Tua Tagovailoa's joint-practice week ran from a pick-six to three red-zone touchdowns.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Atlanta Falcons Camp Update — August 16: Tua Starts, Penix Waits, Pearce Gets Eight Games
Tua Tagovailoa started the preseason opener while Michael Penix dressed and watched, still uncleared for team drills with no date attached. Hours before kickoff, the league suspended James Pearce Jr. for eight games — on a defense that already lost Jalon Walker for the year. The bridge scenario is now the schedule, and the pass rush is the new emergency.
- Camp · Aug 9, 2026
Atlanta Falcons Camp Update — August 9: Michael Penix Still Isn't Cleared for Team Drills
The July 29 clearance the whole projection hung on didn't come. Penix is living in seven-on-sevens with no timeline, Tua is taking the probable first team after his own back scare, and the bridge scenario the preview sketched is quietly becoming the plan. Also: Bijan got extended and the pass rush lost Jalon Walker.
- 2026 Preview
Atlanta Falcons 2026 Season Preview — New Regime, Same Defense
Atlanta fired everyone above the defense and kept everything inside it — the division's longest odds are a bet against a knee, not a roster, and the roster is the best one in the South on paper.
- Season Review
8-9 regular season
- Draft Recap
6 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft
- Week 4
Falcons 45, Saints 24 — Week 4: Seven in the Box, 7.5 a Carry
Atlanta won 45-24 at New Orleans on Monday night, running for 207 yards and five touchdowns while the Saints put seven or more in the box on 21 of 33 designed runs; Michael Penix went 15 of 20 for 223 yards with play-action on 38% of dropbacks and no interception-worthy throws.
- Week 3
Falcons 35, Packers 14 — Week 3: Penix Starts, Five Hundred Yards
Atlanta beat Green Bay 35-14 at Lambeau Field on Thursday night in Michael Penix's first start of the season, with 500 total yards, 244 rushing yards on 39 rush plays — more than in any game last season — 14 snaps inside the 20 after none in Weeks 1 and 2, and no sacks allowed.
- Week 2
Falcons 3, Panthers 34 — Week 2: Two Games, No Red-Zone Snap
Atlanta lost 34-3 at home to Carolina on Sunday with five turnovers, a pick-six, the least valuable passing game of the 28 teams that have played Week 2 by expected points, and, for the second straight game, no offensive snap inside the opponent's 20.
- Week 1
Falcons 13, Steelers 20 — Week 1: Not One Snap Inside the Twenty
Atlanta did not run a single play from scrimmage inside the Pittsburgh twenty-yard line, converted two of twelve third downs, and threw two interceptions, the second returned thirty-five yards by T.J. Watt for the touchdown that decided a thirteen-to-ten game. The defense allowed sixty-one rushing yards and a thirty-three percent success rate — the best of the sixteen teams in Sunday's early games — and lost.
- Week 3 · What Repeats
Falcons, Week 3 — What Repeats: Light Boxes Finally Showed Up
Green Bay showed six or fewer in the box on 25 of Atlanta's 39 designed runs, 64 percent and 7th in the league after 29 and 36 percent the first two weeks, and the 39 runs gained 244 yards at 6.3 a carry; play-action climbed to 28 percent of dropbacks and the interception-worthy rate fell from 9 percent to one ball in 25.
- Week 2 · What Repeats
Falcons, Week 2 — What Repeats: Opposite Rush, Same Loose Balls
Pittsburgh sent five or more rushers on 8% of Atlanta's dropbacks in Week 1, the league low; Carolina sent them on 51% in Week 2, 5th-most — and Atlanta threw interception-worthy balls at a top-two rate both weeks (3 of 32 this week, the highest), all three of this week's against four-man rushes, while the defense held opposing throws to 61% catchable for the second straight week.
- Week 1 · What Repeats
Falcons, Week 1 — What Repeats: Ten Uncatchable Balls for Rush
Cooper Rush's 22 throws in Pittsburgh were charted 55 percent catchable — 30th of 32 in Week 1 — with 2 interception-worthy balls (tied for 2nd-highest rate) and 2 interceptions, while Pittsburgh sent five or more rushers on just 2 of 26 dropbacks and stacked the box against the run, showing 6 or fewer on 9 of 31 designed runs after Atlanta saw a light box 64 percent of the time last year.
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From The Muffed Read
- Which records are telling the truth? Minnesota's 5-0 with the 28th-ranked offense, San Francisco's win in Seattle, Houston's first win, Atlanta's fifth game and the ten 3-2 teams, run through a ruler built for five games.
At five games, a team's record, its point differential and how well it plays snap to snap predict the rest of its season about equally well. When they disagree, believe the play: 3-2 teams ranked top ten by net EPA per play reached the playoffs 25 times in 39 over the last ten seasons, and 3-2 teams in the bottom half 12 times in 33.
- Which first-month signals are real? San Francisco's offense, Atlanta's run game, Minnesota's blitz, the five 0-4 teams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's targets, run through a ruler built for four games.
Four games in, how a team plays repeats far better than how well it plays: blitz rate, run-pass lean and target share all carry into the rest of the season at 0.51 or better, defensive results at 0.29 and touchdowns at 0.19. And no 0-4 team in ten seasons has reached the playoffs; this season has five.
- Which three-game patterns are worth believing? San Francisco's offense, Minnesota's blitz, the Raiders' 3–0, Houston's 0–3 and the receivers who kept their shares, run through a ruler built for three games.
Three games in, this season's offense now outweighs last season's. Defense still doesn't. Minnesota, the Raiders, Houston's 0–3, and the receivers whose shares held.
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