Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry ran for 1,595 yards and 16 touchdowns at age 31, and the Ravens still missed the playoffs. That's the headline. Here's how the league's number one rushing attack got dragged down by a passing game in the bottom third of football, why a defense that couldn't get to the quarterback bled out in the first six weeks, and the one stat that explains an 8-and-9 season better than any other. Eight and nine. No playoffs. The number one team in the AFC's non-playoff pile. The Ravens didn't get muffed by one thing — they got muffed by a slow start they spent the rest of the year trying to outrun.

Team-level numbers first. Baltimore finished plus 32.5 in total offensive expected points added — 12th in the league, 66th percentile. Solid, not spectacular. The defense allowed plus 26 expected points added, ranking 20th — and on defense you want that number deeply negative, so plus 26 is a below-average year. The schedule tells the rest. They opened 1-and-5, with losses by 17 to the Chiefs, 34 to the Texans, and 14 to the Rams. Then five straight wins, Week 8 through Week 12. Then three losses in four. Boom-or-bust doesn't capture it — this was a contender for one month and a bottom-feeder for two.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. This is where the season cratered. Baltimore's passing expected points added came in at minus 16.7 on 469 attempts — negative 0.04 per dropback, 23rd in the league, 31st percentile. Below average, full stop. Lamar Jackson's completion percentage over expected was minus 2.2, 29th among qualified starters. The Ravens also gave up 45 sacks on 503 dropbacks — a 9 percent sack rate, fourth-worst in football. A quarterback completing fewer passes than expected, a line getting him hit constantly, and Jackson missing four games on top of it. Zay Flowers was the lone bright spot: 86 catches, 1,211 yards, 5 touchdowns on 118 targets. When Flowers wasn't open, this passing game had nothing.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because the other half of the story is spectacular. Baltimore finished number one in the league in rushing expected points added at plus 42.2 — 100th percentile, the best ground game in football by that measure. 5.3 yards per carry, second in the league. 156.6 rushing yards per game. Elite from Week 1 to Week 18. The engine was Derrick Henry — 307 carries, 1,595 yards, 5.2 a pop, 16 rushing touchdowns, second in the NFL. His rushing yards over expected came in at plus 340.1 total, plus 1.1 per attempt, third among qualified runners. That's 340 more yards than a league-average back would have managed on the same carries. The problem wasn't the run game. The problem was that you can't run your way out of a 34-point deficit, and Baltimore was in too many of those early.

Next up, the pass defense — and this is where the 1-and-5 start really came from. Baltimore allowed plus 47.76 expected points added through the air, a 31st-percentile pass defense. They generated just 30 sacks all season, 29th in the league, 13th percentile. Almost nobody got to the quarterback less often than the Ravens. The one thing the secondary did well was take the ball away — 21 total takeaways, 11 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries, 13th in the league, and the takeaways could be electric when they came. In the Week 15 shutout of the Bengals, Kyle Van Noy picked off Joe Burrow at the Baltimore 5 with the Ravens up 17-nothing, and the play turned into an 84-yard lateral-and-run touchdown — a negative 11 expected-points swing on a single snap. The kind of moment that wins playoff games. The Ravens just didn't generate enough of them, and without a real pass rush behind it, opposing quarterbacks had all day.

And the run defense was a quiet strength. Baltimore allowed minus 21.79 expected points added on the ground — negative, which is what you want on defense — at minus 0.05 per carry, 81st percentile, steady all year. They held opponents to 107.9 rushing yards a game. So if you're trying to explain how a team with the league's best rushing offense and a top-tier run defense still finished 8-and-9, the answer is right in front of you — the passing game on both sides of the ball got muffed. The Ravens won the line of scrimmage on the ground. They lost it through the air. And in 2025, that math doesn't add up to January football.

Welcome back to Muffed. Ravens 2026 draft class on the table: 11 picks, anchored at 14, no trade-up theatrics. Jesse Minter's first draft as head coach in three words — tough and physical. A guard headlines, pass-catchers and trench bodies fill the middle, a defensive backbone holds it together, and Eric DeCosta even let Steve Bisciotti pick one. We'll get there.

Start up front. Baltimore's 2025 offense surrendered 45 sacks and 83 quarterback hits — almost five a game — so the interior was where the math told them to spend. Enter Olaivavega Ioane at pick 14, who Minter called the best interior offensive lineman in the entire draft. That's a hell of a statement for a mid-first. He starts at guard, with the door open to center work this offseason — because Tyler Linderbaum's departure left a real hole, and the center class fell off a cliff after round two. DeCosta admitted he looked hard at trading up and decided the freight — second, third, and fourth — was prohibitive. Way down at 253, they grabbed Evan Beerntsen out of Northwestern, a Midwest-grit guard with a 7.34 Relative Athletic Score — that's a 0-to-10 grade comparing every combine and pro-day test to every player at the position since 1987. Deep-depth flier with a real athletic baseline.

The passing game got the deepest investment of any unit — four picks. Ja'Kobi Lane from USC at 80 is the headliner. Just 49 catches, 745 yards, 4 touchdowns in the Big Ten, but the efficiency screams: plus 0.79 predicted points added per play — the college version of expected points added — and plus 54.37 on the year. Then the testing: a 9.40 Relative Athletic Score at receiver. Top-six-percent territory since the 80s. Minter called him a big matchup guy — size, speed, length, catch radius. At 115, Baltimore doubled up with Elijah Sarratt from Indiana — a producer. 64 catches, 806 yards, 15 touchdowns, first in the Big Ten and second nationally. The 6.27 Relative Athletic Score is middling, but Minter raved about back-shoulder fades and contested catches, and Sarratt has produced at every stop, including JMU. He's also a St. Frances product — Baltimore tie. The tight end room got two. Matt Hibner from SMU at 133 is the athlete: 9.25 Relative Athletic Score at tight end, top-eight-percent, with 31 catches, 436 yards, and plus 0.76 predicted points added per play in the ACC. Minter had history with him from Michigan and called him a really physical blocker. Josh Cuevas from Alabama at 173 — 37 catches, 4 touchdowns, 7.40 Relative Athletic Score, route-runner's profile. DeCosta wanted to leave with two tight ends. Done.

Flip the ball. Baltimore's 2025 pass defense bled plus 47.76 expected points added and generated only 30 sacks — the math was screaming for a rusher. Zion Young at 45 answers: 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss, second in the SEC and 15th nationally, with a 7.69 Relative Athletic Score comfortably above average for a defensive end. Minter's words: big, physical, tough, rugged. Then at 162, Chandler Rivers, the Duke corner. Undersized — DeCosta said it straight up — but 4.3 speed and an 8.98 Relative Athletic Score, top-eleven-percent at corner. 8 pass breakups, 5th in the ACC. The comp DeCosta dropped: Lardarius Webb and Tavon Young. Small, sticky, probably best inside.

Run defense got one shot, late. Rayshaun Benny, Michigan defensive tackle at 250 — coached by Minter in Ann Arbor, called a tough, rugged 5-tech with pass-rush upside who lost 2024 to injury and bounced back this year. 35 tackles, 3 for loss, 1.5 sacks. Modest production, known commodity.

The backfield got the most Baltimore pick of the weekend. Adam Randall from Clemson at 174 — and Steve Bisciotti literally made the selection. 814 yards, 10 touchdowns, 36 catches out of the backfield, and a 9.45 Relative Athletic Score, top-six-percent at running back. DeCosta's word: jackknife. Former wideout, runs routes, catches, returns kicks, physical. Special teams added Ryan Eckley from Michigan State at 211 — top punter in the class per Randy Brown, and the best holder in the draft per DeCosta. Don't sleep on holder grade in late-round punter math.

Pick of the draft. Ioane's the foundational trench piece. Lane's the explosive matchup weapon. The pick is Lane. Day-two efficiency stacked on top-six-percent athletic testing is first-round traits at third-round cost — and a 2025 passing offense that finished minus 16.32 expected points added with 23 passing touchdowns needed a ceiling shifter more than another interior body. Ioane fixes the floor. Lane raises the roof. In a class Minter called tough and physical, Lane is the rare bet on rare traits.

Which leaves one question for 2026: the middle of the offensive line. DeCosta walked through it honestly — center board collapsed in round two, trade-up cost was prohibitive, and the pivot now runs through Drew Pinter, Jovaughn Gwyn, and Corey Bullock competing in camp, with Ioane and possibly Emery Jones Jr. sliding to find the best five. If the interior holds, this class smashed. If the pivot wobbles, the receivers and tight ends get stranded behind a quarterback running for his life. Eleven picks, a physical identity, two pass-catching tandems, an edge, a corner, a jackknife back, and the best holder in the draft. Ravens didn't muff this weekend — they just left the hardest question for September.