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Muffed on the Bills

Buffalo Bills

12-5 regular season

Buffalo Bills — 2026 season outlook, updated Oct 15, 2026.

Buffalo Bills finished the 2026 season 4-1.

Buffalo Bills: 12-5 regular season.

Based on verified play-by-play data (nflverse).

By the numbers — 2026

12 leaderboards

What these mean: expected points added per play · success rate · play-action rate · pre-snap motion rate · RPO rate · blitz rate · screen pass rate · pass rate over expected · team air yards · pythagorean win delta · no-huddle rate

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2026 — through Week 5
Record
4-1
Off. EPA
#1
+0.21/play
Def. EPA
#30
+0.13/play
Takeaways
5
#21 of 32

2026 schedule

Bills players we cover

7 players with a page

Week 5Oct 15, 2026

Bills 37, Rams 34 — Week 5: Allen and Cook Run It, Bass Wins It

Buffalo won 37-34 in overtime at Los Angeles on 234 rushing yards, with Josh Allen running for 121 and James Cook scoring twice; Tyler Bass won it with a 45-yard field goal after Greg Rousseau blocked the Rams' try, on a night the pass defense allowed 383 yards.

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More episodes

  • Camp · Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026

    Bills Camp — Sep 3: Cleveland Claimed the Corner Buffalo Cut

    Cleveland claimed seventh-round cornerback Toriano Pride Jr. off Buffalo's cuts on Monday — the only member of the ten-player draft class released on cutdown day, and a claim the Browns' coach traced to the August 20 joint practice. The Bills were awarded no claims. Fourteen of Sunday's cuts came straight back on a seventeen-man practice squad, joined by Greg Dortch, Shaq Thompson and Jedrick Wills Jr.

  • Camp · Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026

    Bills Camp — Aug 31: Hairston Named Starting Corner, Doman Wins Punter

    Joe Brady named first-round pick Maxwell Hairston the starting cornerback, seventh-round punter Tommy Doman Jr. took the job from veteran Mitch Wishnowsky, and Kyle Allen is the backup quarterback — Shane Buechele was released three days after starting and winning the preseason finale. The initial 53 carries five wide receivers, per the team's website, two of them coming off injury-limited weeks, and the depth receivers who produced in August — Trent Sherfield, Dante Pettis, Ja'Mori Maclin — all went out in the cuts.

  • Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

    Bills Camp — Aug 23: Kyle Allen Presses His Case at 24 of 28

    Kyle Allen went 10 of 12 in one half of a 31-7 walkover in Cleveland and has one beat writer declaring the backup job settled while another insists Shane Buechele's 71-yard touchdown night keeps it open. The starters got their real work at Thursday's joint practice, where Josh Allen threw four touchdowns to his tight ends — and the injury file turned over again, with Keon Coleman in a walking boot and Khalil Shakir and Ed Oliver new to the out list.

  • Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 16, 2026

    Buffalo Bills Camp Update — August 16: Allen Christens the Stadium, Moore Limps Off

    Josh Allen christened the 2.1-billion-dollar building going 6 of 8 for 111 yards and a touchdown, DJ Moore looked like the July thesis for two drives — and then Moore and Keon Coleman both left injured. Behind them, the Leonhard defense passed its first live audition — an interception, stacked sacks, three straight three-and-outs forced — against a Carolina line missing both starting guards.

  • Camp · Aug 9, 2026Aug 10, 2026

    Buffalo Bills Camp Update — August 9: Josh Allen Says the New Defense Is "Flying Around"

    We spent July skeptical of trading a known defensive floor for a theoretical ceiling. Two weeks of camp are arguing with us: Leonhard's 3-4 is the story of Pittsford, Allen keeps praising the thing that's beating him, and the DJ Moore connection is building on schedule.

  • 2026 PreviewJul 6, 2026

    Buffalo Bills 2026 Season Preview — The Floor Got Fired

    The cleanest luck ledger in the AFC East belonged to the team that fired its coach anyway — Buffalo kept the offense that earned 12 wins and tore down the defense that helped.

  • Season ReviewMay 11, 2026

    Bills 2025 Season in Review

    12-5 regular season

  • Draft RecapMay 11, 2026

    Bills — 2026 Draft Recap

    10 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft

  • Week 4Oct 6, 2026

    Bills 26, Patriots 29 — Week 4: First Loss on the Last Throw

    Buffalo lost 29-26 at home to New England, its first loss of the season, after Keon Coleman's 34-yard touchdown put it ahead 26-21 with 4:33 left; Drake Maye's 23-yard touchdown pass and two-point throw retook the lead, and Josh Allen was intercepted at the New England 19 with 1:14 left.

  • Week 3Sep 28, 2026

    Bills 24, Chargers 16 — Week 3: Five Giveaways, Still Unbeaten

    Buffalo beat the Chargers 24-16 at home to reach 3-0 despite five turnovers, taking its first lead with 7:37 left on a drive that survived three offensive holding penalties, behind 177 yards on 32 rush plays and three rushing touchdowns.

  • Week 2Sep 18, 2026

    Bills 41, Lions 31 — Week 2: Six Touchdowns on Nine Drives

    Buffalo beat Detroit 41-31 at Highmark Stadium on Thursday night behind 206 rushing yards on 33 rush plays, nine of eleven third downs converted, touchdowns on six of nine drives with no turnovers and no three-and-outs, and a pass defense that allowed 327 yards and four touchdowns.

  • Week 1Sep 13, 2026

    Bills 36, Texans 31 — Week 1: Two Touchdown Drives From the Four-Yard Line

    Buffalo took over at its own four-yard line twice in Houston and scored a touchdown both times — three plays before halftime, and seven plays to Josh Allen's thirty-four-yard throw to Josh Palmer with one forty-one left, down thirty-one to thirty. Greg Rousseau's second strip-sack of the day, at the Buffalo eighteen with sixteen seconds left, ended it. The passing game produced plus fifteen expected points; the run game and the red zone did not.

  • Week 3 · What RepeatsSep 30, 2026

    Bills, Week 3 — What Repeats: The Light Box Finally Came

    The Chargers showed six or fewer in the box on 17 of 31 Buffalo designed runs, 55 percent after 32 and 29 the first two weeks and 37 across last season, and James Cook ran 24 times for 154, while the defense faced the most interception-worthy passing day in the league, 5 of Justin Herbert's 34 throws, and turned one into an interception.

  • Week 2 · What RepeatsSep 24, 2026

    Bills, Week 2 — What Repeats: Motion Went From 29th to 2nd

    After a Week 1 in Houston that charted as a simpler offense, Buffalo used motion on 68% of charted plays against Detroit (2nd in the league, from 29th) and play-action on 42% of dropbacks (3rd), ran 28 designed runs for 157 yards against a lower light-box share than in 2025, and Josh Allen threw no interception-worthy balls on 31 throws, one in 61 across two games.

  • Week 1 · What RepeatsSep 16, 2026

    Bills, Week 1 — What Repeats: One Blitzer, One Contested Ball

    Houston sent a charted blitzer on 1 of Buffalo's 33 dropbacks and five or more rushers on 5, after Buffalo faced five-or-more on 28.7 percent of dropbacks across 2025 — and Josh Allen threw into a contested window once in 30 throws, 3.3 percent against 12.8 percent last season, for 334 yards with no quarterback-fault sacks; meanwhile Buffalo's motion rate fell to 36.1 percent, 29th in the league, from 49.2 percent last year.

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