Carolina Panthers

Eight and nine, NFC South champs, still playing football in January. Here's how a bottom-quartile offense pulled it off, what Bryce Young actually looked like in year three, and the one defensive number that almost kept them out. The Panthers fell to the Rams thirty-one to thirty-four in the wild card — a game they led in the fourth. Carolina didn't smash. But they didn't get muffed either. They survived.

Let's set the table, because the portrait is messier than the division banner. Carolina's total offensive expected points added — how much every offensive snap moved their scoring chances — landed at minus thirty-nine point one, twenty-sixth in the league. The defense allowed plus sixty-seven point two, twenty-third. Both sides bottom-ten. What bailed them out: takeaways. Twenty-one of them — fifteen interceptions, six fumble recoveries, fourteenth in football. And the fourth-down aggressiveness was off the charts — Carolina went for it on thirty-four of one hundred seventeen competitive fourth downs, twenty-nine percent, second in the league. They had to. Third-down conversion rate was thirty-seven percent, twenty-fifth, so they extended drives by going on fourth. Consistency? Forget it — boom-or-bust all year. Thirty to nothing over Atlanta in Week 3, nine to forty by Buffalo in Week 8, a thirty-one to twenty-eight win over the Rams in Week 13, ten to twenty-seven to Seattle in Week 17. Whatever you saw one week, you couldn't bank on the next.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Minus twenty-seven point seven in total passing expected points added on five hundred fifty-three attempts, twenty-fifth in the league. Bryce Young threw for three thousand eleven yards, twenty-three touchdowns, eleven interceptions, and took twenty-seven sacks. His completion percentage above expectation was minus zero point three — slightly below average, not a disaster, not a leap. The chemistry that did emerge was Young to Tetairoa McMillan: seventy catches, one thousand fourteen yards, seven touchdowns, plus twenty-five point three in receiving expected points added as the clear number one. The play that defined this passing game came in the wild card. Fourth and two, six forty-three left in the fourth, Carolina down twenty-eight to twenty-four. Young dropped back and hit McMillan deep right for forty-three yards and the touchdown — twenty-three air yards, twenty after the catch — to take the lead. That's the version of this offense that almost stole a playoff game. The other version got sacked thirty-five times on five hundred eighty-five dropbacks. You got both, all year.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. One thousand nine hundred seventy-seven yards on four hundred sixty-three carries — four point three a clip, nineteenth in the league, one hundred sixteen a game. Rushing expected points added came in at minus nineteen point four, twenty-third. Volume there, per-carry efficiency middle of the pack, but the unit didn't move the needle. The story underneath: Rico Dowdle was the guy. Two hundred thirty-six carries, one thousand seventy-six yards, four point six a carry, six rushing touchdowns, and plus one hundred forty-six point four in rushing yards over expected — sixteenth among qualified runners and the reason Carolina had a credible ground game at all. As a team, the run game was steady — not explosive, but reliably available — which is exactly why Carolina kept calling its number on those aggressive fourth-down tries.

Next up, the pass defense. This is the unit that got muffed. Carolina allowed plus fifty-six point five in passing expected points added — and remember, on defense you want that number negative. Plus fifty-six is bad. Per dropback they allowed plus zero point one one, bottom-tier in the league. Just thirty sacks, twenty-eighth, with a quarterback hits percentile in the third — meaning twenty-nine teams pressured the passer more often. So how did they survive? Ball production. Fifteen interceptions, and corner Mike Jackson was the spark. In Week 11 against Atlanta, third and goal flipped to fourth and eight, Penix targeted the short left, and Jackson jumped it at the sixteen and took it fifty-four yards the other way. That single play was worth minus five point four five expected points to Atlanta — a complete drive killer. The pass rush didn't scare anybody. The ball hawks kept them in games.

And the run defense — same story, different flavor. Carolina allowed two thousand one hundred fifteen rushing yards, one hundred twenty-four a game, and gave up twenty rushing touchdowns. Rushing expected points added allowed was plus ten point six three, twenty-eighth percentile against the run. Neither front did its job at a starter level. The boom-or-bust pattern showed up here too: they held Atlanta to zero points in Week 3 and then watched the Patriots hang forty-two on them the very next week. When this defense had a plan and a takeaway script, they could choke a game out. When they didn't, they got run off the field. That's a front seven that has to get better up the middle. Full stop.

Welcome back to Muffed. Seven picks, no quarterback drama, no skill-position fireworks — Dan Morgan and Dave Canales spent Carolina's 2026 draft reinforcing the trenches and rebuilding the back end. The headliner is Georgia tackle Monroe Freeling at 19, and the theme is physicality on both lines plus a secondary makeover. Morgan said it himself: length, toughness, competitors. This class is built in that image.

Start up front. Carolina's 2025 offense surrendered 35 sacks and 86 quarterback hits — over five a game — and Freeling at 19 is the kind of swing that makes you stop and stare at the testing sheet. His Relative Athletic Score — a zero-to-ten grade comparing combine and pro-day testing to every player at his position since 1987 — came in at 9.99. That's not a typo. That's effectively the ceiling of the entire historical sample of offensive tackles. In round five at pick 144, they doubled up with Kansas State center Sam Hecht, who posted a 7.76 — comfortably above average. Morgan zeroed in on Hecht's initial quickness, hand placement, and comfort pulling to the second level, and flat-out said getting younger inside was a priority. Bonus: Hecht reportedly finished his college career without a single penalty. Clean and athletic on the interior. Win.

One pass-catcher, but it's a juicy one. Carolina's passing offense posted minus 27.46 in total passing expected points added across 2025 and managed just 24 passing touchdowns — they needed drive-finishers. Enter Tennessee receiver Chris Brazzell II at pick 83: 62 catches, 1,017 yards, and 9 touchdowns that led the entire SEC. His receiving yardage ranked second in the conference, and his per-play predicted points added — the college equivalent of expected points added — was plus 0.71, totaling plus 58.5 on the year. That's a real arrow.

Now the run defense, where Carolina spent its highest non-tackle pick. The 2025 Panthers allowed 2,115 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns — more than a ground score per game. Their answer at pick 49: Texas Tech defensive tackle Lee Hunter, with 11 tackles for loss (7th in his conference) and 3 sacks. His Relative Athletic Score? 4.12. Below average for an interior lineman. The bet is production and play strength over testing — the tape has to carry it. Way down at pick 227, they grabbed Miami of Ohio linebacker Jackson Kuwatch — 101 tackles, 10 for loss, 5 sacks (10th in his conference), and an 8.86 Relative Athletic Score, top 12 percent of linebackers ever tested. Morgan called him instinctive, fast, and a Day-1 special teamer.

The pass defense got two picks, one archetype: long, physical, tackle-first. At pick 129, Texas A&M corner Will Lee III — 50 tackles, 7 pass breakups, 2 tackles for loss, a sack, and a 9.38 Relative Athletic Score that puts him in the top 7 percent of corners ever tested. Morgan loved his press ability and the, quote, swag he plays with; Canales emphasized that Carolina's corners have to tackle and fit the run, which is exactly Lee's game. Then at pick 151, Penn State safety Zakee Wheatley — 74 tackles, 51 solo, and a 7.64 Relative Athletic Score, solidly above average at free safety. Canales called him one of his favorite guys in the entire process: angles, downhill instincts, range from the post to the box. Like Hecht, Wheatley reportedly closed his college career penalty-free. Morgan admitted he was surprised Wheatley was still there.

Pick of the draft. You can argue Brazzell's SEC-leading touchdowns. You can argue Lee's testing in round four. It's Freeling. Tackles who test at 9.99 don't exist — that number is the ceiling of the historical database. On a line that gave up sacks at a two-a-game clip, landing that kind of athletic rarity at 19, without trading up, is the swing that defines the class. Smashed.

So what's the 2026 stress test? Whether this defense actually tightens. Four of seven picks went to a unit that surrendered plus 56.54 in pass-defense expected points added and nearly 125 rushing yards a game in 2025. If Hunter wins with hands and leverage despite the testing, and if Lee and Wheatley deliver the physicality Canales keeps preaching, this back seven looks different in a hurry. Add a generational athletic profile at tackle and a touchdown-finisher on the outside, and Carolina got exactly what Morgan promised: competitors, length, and toughness at every level.