Chicago Bears

Thirty-three takeaways. Number one in the entire National Football League. That's the headline of the 2025 Chicago Bears — a defense that didn't always stop you, but had an unnatural gift for ripping the ball away when it mattered. Here's how Caleb Williams took a real step in year two, how a power-running game finished top five in the league, and the one weakness that ended this thing one overtime short of the Conference Championship. Eleven and six. First NFC North title since 2018. A Wild Card win over the Packers, then a heartbreaker — seventeen to twenty in overtime to the Rams in the Divisional Round. The Cardiac Bears were real, and the numbers say they were no fluke.

Start with the team-level portrait. Chicago's offense finished plus 87.1 in total expected points added — how much every snap improved their scoring chances — landing them eighth in the league, seventy-eighth percentile. The defense allowed plus 18.5, middle of the pack at nineteenth, but the takeaway machine more than papered over it. Thirty-three forced turnovers, first in football. Third down was solid at 42.5 percent, twelfth in the league, and the field goal unit hit 33 of 39. The week-to-week shape was wild — a 52-point beatdown in Detroit in Week 2, a 47-42 shootout win in Cincinnati in Week 9, a Week 15 31-3 dismantling of Cleveland. Boom-or-bust. They learned to win the boom games and steal the close ones.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. The Bears posted plus 47.9 in passing expected points added on 602 attempts — tenth in the league, seventy-second percentile — and threw for 234.8 yards a game. Caleb Williams finished with 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, just 7 interceptions, and only 24 sacks taken behind a pass protection unit that ranked in the ninety-fourth percentile for keeping him clean. Here's the catch — his completion percentage over expected was minus 6.9, one of the lower marks among starting quarterbacks. Translation: boom-or-bust accuracy, great at avoiding disaster and explosive when he hit, but the down-to-down still has another gear. The signature throw of the year tells you everything — Week 9 in Cincinnati, 25 seconds left, Chicago down 42-41, first and ten from their own 42. Williams stepped up and ripped a 58-yard touchdown down the middle to rookie tight end Colston Loveland to steal a 47-42 win. Loveland led the team with 58 catches for 713 yards and 6 touchdowns. Feast or famine — but the feasts won them games.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this is where Chicago really smashed. Plus 33 in rushing expected points added — fourth in the league, ninety-first percentile. 4.8 yards a carry, third in football. 144 rushing yards a game. A top-five ground game any way you slice it, and the steady floor under the offense's volatility — when the pass game sputtered, the run kept the chains moving. D'Andre Swift was the engine: 223 carries for 1,087 yards, 4.9 a pop, 9 rushing touchdowns, and plus 128 rushing yards over expected on the season. The most consistent unit on this team, week in and week out, and it's why even the losses tended to be competitive.

Next up, the pass defense — the unit with the split personality. The raw numbers are mediocre: 239 passing yards allowed per game, 32 passing touchdowns surrendered, plus 17.8 in passing expected points added allowed, right at league average. The pass rush was a real problem — 35 sacks, twenty-fourth in the league, twenty-eighth percentile. They simply did not get home enough. But the ball-hawking? Otherworldly. Twenty-three interceptions, ten fumble recoveries, thirty-three takeaways total — best in football. Safety Tremaine Edmunds was the heartbeat, with a fourth-and-goal interception against Dallas in Week 3 that captured the unit's identity: bend a lot, then take the ball away when the other team gets close. Sustainable? That's the question. In 2025, it worked.

And the run defense. Tighter paragraph because the story's tighter. Chicago allowed 134.8 rushing yards a game and plus 0.68 in rushing expected points added allowed — basically zero per carry. Nineteenth in the league, forty-fourth percentile. Steady floor, low ceiling. Not a strength, not a glaring weakness. They surrendered 15 rushing touchdowns, a fine number, and the splash plays came when the front got disruptive — Andrew Billings and Noah Sewell stripped Ashton Jeanty on fourth-and-one in Week 4 against the Raiders, and Chicago recovered at the 20. Plays like that papered over a unit that, on neutral downs, was just okay. If the Bears want to push past where they finished, the front seven needs to win more snaps before it forces the splash.

The Bears spent a first-round pick on a safety — from an offensive head coach who admits safeties almost never scare him. That's where this class starts: Dillon Thieneman at 25, a tight end and receiver on day two for Caleb Williams, and a center the staff was, in Ben Johnson's word, smitten with. Seven picks, no edge rusher, and a very clear identity.

Start with Thieneman, because the Bears do. The 2025 Bears pass defense gave up 32 passing touchdowns and 4,067 yards through the air — they didn't need a luxury pick at safety, they needed a problem-solver. Thieneman put up 92 tackles, 44 solo, three and a half for loss, a sack, and five passes defended at Oregon, the third straight year of starter-level production going back to Purdue. The athletic profile pushes him from solid to special: a 9.71 Relative Athletic Score for a strong safety — the 0-to-10 grade comparing combine and pro-day testing to every player at the position since 1987. Top three percent ever measured. Johnson's point on the podium: as an offensive guy, it's rare to see a safety you actually have to worry about. He thinks Thieneman is one.

Day two is where the offense got its toys. At 57, Iowa center Logan Jones — a 9.70 Relative Athletic Score, top three percent of every center tested since 1987. Johnson acknowledged the Bears ask more of their center mentally than most NFL offenses, and Jones gets to learn behind the incumbent before the room turns over. Then at 69, Stanford tight end Sam Roush, who quietly posted plus 24.71 total predicted points added in the ACC — the college version of NFL expected points added — at plus 0.37 per play on 49 catches, 545 yards, and two scores. Johnson flagged a text from a Stanford coach: Roush will crush himself to help the football team. The tape and the testing agree — a 9.95 Relative Athletic Score at tight end, the top half-percent ever measured. That's a smashed combine card.

Twenty picks later, the Bears grabbed Zavion Thomas out of LSU, and this one's a Johnson special. Thomas had 41 catches for 488 yards and four scores, added 99 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, and even threw a couple of passes — plus 0.39 predicted points added per play, plus 21.96 on the SEC season. The Relative Athletic Score is 8.86, top fifteen percent at receiver. Johnson called him a 4.2 guy whose backfield and return versatility complements Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Cole Kmet. In an offense that ran 52 percent shotgun in 2025 and posted plus 48.13 total passing expected points added, Thomas is the chess piece, not the centerpiece.

The pass defense got reinforcement on day three too. Pick 124, Texas corner Malik Muhammad — 30 tackles, two and a half for loss, a sack, four passes defended, and a 9.74 Relative Athletic Score, top three percent of corners ever tested. Poles flagged the cover skill and play style, with room to grow behind the existing room.

The run-defense investments came later, and they're the interesting ones. Round five, pick 166, Arizona State linebacker Keyshaun Elliott — 98 tackles, 14 for loss, seven sacks. Those tackles for loss ranked third in his conference and 33rd nationally; the sacks were fifth in the league. Pair it with an 8.74 Relative Athletic Score, top fifteen percent at linebacker, plus special teams value to lock down a roster spot. Then at 213, Georgia Tech defensive lineman Jordan van den Berg — and this is where the building got loud. Poles called him a pro-day riser the staff identified late, with the d-line coaches genuinely fired up. Forty-two tackles, 11 for loss, four sacks. And a 9.99 Relative Athletic Score at defensive tackle. That's not top one percent. That's the top of the chart of every defensive tackle ever measured since 1987. In the sixth round.

Pick of the draft has to be Thieneman, and not just because he went first. You can argue Jones — top three percent athlete at a premium position in this scheme. You can argue van den Berg as the value play of the entire class. But Thieneman is the answer because of what he solves. The 2025 defense allowed 32 passing touchdowns while forcing 33 takeaways — getting the ball, getting cooked. A safety with three years of starter-level production, top-three-percent testing, and the tackling Johnson kept circling back to moves the math in both directions. Coordinators have to account for him. That's the differentiator.

The 2026 season tests one bet specifically: that the Bears can fix their pass rush from within. They generated 35 sacks and 80 quarterback hits in 2025 and didn't draft an edge rusher. Johnson was direct — better coaching, better health from Dominique Robinson and Shemar Turner, another step from Montez Sweat and Austin Booker. If the front holds, this class hands Caleb Williams a third tight end with violent finishing, a 4.2 chess piece who can line up anywhere, a future center, and a safety who plays like a problem. If the rush doesn't come, Thieneman and Muhammad are cleaning up plays that shouldn't have lasted that long.