Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott threw thirty touchdown passes and finished fourth in the entire league. Fourth. On a seven-win team. Here's how this offense climbed into the top five in expected points added, why the defense dragged the whole thing into the ditch, and the single number that explains why Dallas watched January from the couch. Seven and nine and one. Missed the playoffs, fifth among NFC non-playoff teams. The offense smashed. The defense got muffed. That's the 2025 Cowboys in one breath.

The team-level split is almost cartoonish. The offense finished plus one hundred seven expected points added — fifth in the league, eighty-eighth percentile. The defense? Plus one hundred seventy-one point nine expected points added allowed. Dead last. Thirty-second of thirty-two — and remember, on defense you want that number negative. A big positive means you got carved up. Turnover differential tells the same story: just eleven takeaways all season, thirty-first in the league. The week-to-week ride was pure boom-or-bust — a forty-forty tie with Green Bay, a forty-four to twenty-two demolition of Washington, a forty-four to twenty-four loss in Denver, a thirty-four to seventeen flop at the Giants to close it out. When the offense was on, Dallas could beat anybody. The rest of the time, it was a track meet they couldn't win.

Now let's talk about the passing offense, because this is where Dallas lived. Plus one hundred seven point three expected points added on six hundred fifty-eight dropbacks — fourth in the league, ninety-first percentile. Two hundred sixty-seven point eight passing yards a game. Prescott's completion percentage over expected was plus four point four, third among qualified starters, and the protection held up — thirty-one sacks allowed, eighty-fourth percentile. Prescott went four hundred of six hundred for four thousand five hundred fifty-two yards, thirty touchdowns, ten interceptions. The moment that captured it: Week 7 against Washington, third and eleven from their own fourteen, Prescott hit KaVontae Turpin in stride for an eighty-six-yard touchdown — plus seven point nine seven expected points on a single snap. That's a top-five passing offense doing top-five passing offense things, and the chemistry with George Pickens — ninety-three catches, fourteen hundred twenty-nine yards, nine touchdowns — was the engine all year.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because nobody saw this unit coming. Four point six yards a carry, ninth in the league, seventy-fifth percentile. Twenty-one hundred thirty-six rushing yards, one hundred twenty-five point seven a game. The expected points added was a hair below water — minus nine point three on four hundred sixty-five carries, league-average efficiency — but the volume, the yards per carry, and the red-zone punch were all real. Javonte Williams carried this group: two hundred fifty-two attempts, twelve hundred one yards, four point eight a clip, eleven rushing touchdowns — eighth in the league in rushing scores, with plus one hundred fifty-six point five rush yards over expected. Steady floor, not boom-or-bust. Williams gave Dallas a real second gear on early downs and finished drives at the goal line.

Next up, the pass defense — and brace yourself, because this is where the season fell apart. Plus one hundred thirty point eight expected points added allowed through the air. Sixth percentile, near the floor of the league. Thirty-five sacks, thirty-first percentile. Just six interceptions all year, part of the eleven total takeaways that ranked thirty-first. Two hundred sixty-five point nine passing yards allowed a game, thirty-five touchdown passes surrendered. Third-down stop rate was sixth percentile — they could not get off the field. Sam Williams forced a Jalen Hurts fumble in the Week 12 win over Philadelphia that flipped a tie game, but the season-long verdict is the verdict: worst pass defense in football by expected points added, and there's no spin that fixes it.

And the run defense was no better. Plus forty-one point one expected points added allowed on the ground — ninth percentile, near the bottom of the league. Two thousand one hundred fifty-three rushing yards allowed, one hundred twenty-six point six a game, twenty-four rushing touchdowns surrendered. Per carry, opponents averaged plus zero point zero nine expected points every time they handed it off. No standout, no anchor, no week where the front held up against a real rushing attack. Forty-four to Denver, forty-four to Detroit, forty to Green Bay in that wild tie, thirty-four three different times in losses. When you can't stop the run and you can't stop the pass, a top-five offense gets you seven wins. That's where Dallas landed.

Welcome back to Muffed, your draft-class recap for the Dallas Cowboys' 2026 haul. Seven picks, one through-line: defense-first reset, full stop. Five of the seven went to the pass defense — two first-rounders in Caleb Downs at 11 and Malachi Lawrence at 23, a Day 2 edge in Jaishawn Barham at 92, and two more defensive backs and edges on Day 3. Jerry Jones said it from the podium and the board confirms it: between trades and the draft, Dallas added five first-round defensive bodies that weren't here a year ago. The bones got rebuilt on purpose.

The pass defense is the whole show. Start at the top: Dallas allowed plus 130.82 expected points added through the air in 2025 — one of the worst marks in football — and Jones was blunt about the cause. Communication. Enter Caleb Downs, the Ohio State safety at 11. The line — 68 tackles, 45 solo, 5 tackles for loss, a sack, a pass breakup — isn't the case. The brain is. Brian Schottenheimer described a player who drove the defense at Alabama under Saban and then at Ohio State under two different coordinators without missing a beat. Jones called him "built to communicate." That's the bet. Eleven picks later, Dallas grabbed Central Florida edge Malachi Lawrence, and the testing tape sings — a 9.95 Relative Athletic Score, a 0-to-10 grade comparing combine and pro-day numbers against every player at the position since 1987. Top half of one percent of every edge ever measured. He produced, too: 7 sacks, fifth in his conference, and 11 tackles for loss, seventh. The staff's own comp was that Lawrence does "a lot of what OSA does, for what we could afford." Day 2 brought Michigan edge Jaishawn Barham at 92 — 10 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 4 pass breakups, and an 8.83 Relative Athletic Score, top 12 percent of edges historically. Schottenheimer named Barham as a player he'd have been "heartbroken" not to land, citing power, violence, and the ability to play on or off the ball. Day 3 doubled up: Florida corner Devin Moore at 114, a long press-and-off corner with an 8.54 Relative Athletic Score and 3 pass breakups, and Alabama edge LT Overton at 137. Be honest about Overton — a 2.47 Relative Athletic Score, bottom 25 percent of edges historically. The bet there is positional versatility along the line, not athletic profile.

The offensive line got exactly one swing: Penn State tackle Drew Shelton at 112. Shelton brings 34 college starts and an 8.76 Relative Athletic Score — top 13 percent of tackles. Schottenheimer praised the smooth footwork, the play in space, the feel for angles, and laid out a left tackle competition with Tyler Guyton and Nate Thomas plus guard and right-side versatility. A Day 2 athlete on Day 3, dropped into a competition rather than handed a job.

At receiver, one shot — and it's a doozy. Anthony Smith out of East Carolina at 218, the second-to-last pick of the seventh round, with production that's absurd for the address. Smith caught 64 balls for 1,053 yards and 7 touchdowns, the yardage ranking second in the American Athletic Conference, plus a 45-yard rushing touchdown on his one carry. His predicted points added — the college equivalent of NFL expected points added — was plus 51.56 on the season, plus 0.56 per play. His Relative Athletic Score: 9.20, top 8 percent of receivers historically. Schottenheimer said the quickest path to the field is special teams, and Smith has done it at a high level. For a seventh-round flier, this stack smashed the value chart.

Pick of the draft. You can argue Lawrence on the 9.95 and the pass-rush projection. You can argue Barham as the Day 2 steal Schottenheimer flagged by name. It's Downs. And the argument isn't ceiling — it's scarcity. Dallas didn't just need a safety; they needed a defensive quarterback to fix the single thing Jones identified as the unit's worst sin a year ago: getting lined up. Safeties who can run a defense at 21, across two programs and three coordinators, don't exist on the open market. You draft them or you don't have one. Jones said the quiet part out loud — if he'd planned on landing this archetype, he'd have given the whole draft away to get there. He didn't have to. The player came to 11.

The thing to watch in 2026 is whether the rebuilt secondary and front actually solve the communication problem that gutted the 2025 defense. Dallas spent five of seven picks on that side and now has to coach it up. The offensive investment was a developmental tackle and a special-teams receiver — not nothing, but not a reshaping. If Christian Parker's new scheme clicks and Downs is the conductor Jones and Schottenheimer described, the math on a 48-percent third-down rate allowed and 35 passing touchdowns surrendered gets a lot friendlier in a hurry. If it doesn't, the offense has to carry a defense with nine new players and nine new coaches all at once.