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Muffed on the Broncos

Denver Broncos

14-3 regular season

Denver Broncos — 2026 season outlook, updated Oct 14, 2026.

Denver Broncos finished the 2026 season 4-2.

Denver Broncos: 14-3 regular season.

Based on verified play-by-play data (nflverse).

By the numbers — 2026

12 leaderboards

What these mean: blitz rate · RPO rate · screen pass rate · pre-snap motion rate · no-huddle rate · pass rate over expected · play-action rate · expected points added per play · success rate · team air yards · pythagorean win delta

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2026 — through Week 5
Record
4-2
Off. EPA
#25
−0.08/play
Def. EPA
#12
−0.04/play
Takeaways
11
#1 of 32

2026 schedule

Broncos players we cover

9 players with a page

Week 5Oct 14, 2026

Broncos 23, Chargers 17 — Week 5: Zach Allen's Strip Broke the Tie

Denver won 23-17 in Los Angeles to go to 3-2 while converting 1 of 12 third downs; the defense sacked Justin Herbert five times, forced three turnovers and broke a 17-17 tie with Zach Allen's strip-sack.

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More episodes

  • Camp · Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026

    Broncos Camp — Sep 3: Joly Claimed, Denver Claimed Nobody

    Miami claimed tight end Justin Joly — a pick Denver's front office had said it expected to clear — and cornerback Reese Taylor. Denver claimed no one and signed no one to the 53; the week's only inbound moves were seventeen practice-squad deals, four of them vested veterans, including the long snapper the roster still does not carry. Jarrett Stidham is the second quarterback, and Jonathon Cooper's not-guilty plea brought a November trial calendar that lands in the bye.

  • Camp · Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026

    Broncos Camp — Aug 31: Cooper to the Exempt List on Cut Day

    The league placed outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper on the commissioner's exempt list on cut day, and Jonah Elliss steps into the starting job opposite Nik Bonitto. Sam Ehlinger threw three touchdowns in a 34-6 finale win over the Vikings and made the 53 as a third quarterback, per Mike Klis — a finale Bo Nix sat out after Sean Payton reversed the starters plan we told you about last week.

  • Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

    Broncos Camp — Aug 23: Nix's Ankle Passes Its First Live Test

    Bo Nix returned from his ankle fracture and scored on both of his drives, hitting 6-of-9 for 76 yards and a touchdown — with a 35-yard third-down strike to Jaylen Waddle in the receiver's Broncos debut. The rest of the night went Green Bay's way, 33-13, and Sean Payton answered by extending his starters into the third quarter of Friday's finale.

  • Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 16, 2026

    Denver Broncos Camp Update — August 16: 27-7 in Atlanta, and Bo Nix Never Took a Snap

    The Broncos routed the Falcons 27-7 in Davis Webb's play-calling debut, but the quarterback the whole projection rides on watched from the sideline. Jahdae Barron went 97 yards with a pick-six, Jarrett Stidham ran a clean half, and the real tests — Nix's debut and Waddle's return — both moved to next Friday.

  • Camp · Aug 9, 2026Aug 10, 2026

    Denver Broncos Camp Update — August 9: Sean Payton Doesn't Want to Chase 13 Again

    The head coach just endorsed our regression thesis on the record: the best way to win one-score games is to stop playing so many. Nix's ankle is fully answered, Webb's offense is stretching the field, and the 14-win champion is coaching against its own precedent.

  • 2026 PreviewJul 6, 2026

    Denver Broncos 2026 Season Preview — the Regression Math Everyone Is Doing Wrong

    The record regresses from 14-3 — but the math lands at eleven wins, not nine, and the real risks aren't coin flips.

  • Season ReviewMay 11, 2026

    Broncos 2025 Season in Review

    14-3 regular season

  • Draft RecapMay 11, 2026

    Broncos — 2026 Draft Recap

    7 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft

  • Week 4Oct 6, 2026

    Broncos 14, 49ers 24 — Week 4: Run Defense Held, a Punt Didn't

    Denver lost 24-14 in San Francisco to fall to 2-2 after a 3-3 halftime; the run defense held 33 49ers rushes to minus 0.7 expected points, against plus 0.2 a carry allowed over the first three weeks, but a fumbled punt return broke the tie and a 56-yard George Kittle touchdown with 2:25 left put it away.

  • Week 3Sep 28, 2026

    Broncos 30, Rams 26 — Week 3: Thirty Points After Halftime

    Denver trailed Los Angeles 16-0 at halftime on Sunday night and won 30-26, scoring 30 after the break on four touchdowns, including a 66-yard interception return, two two-point conversions and two extra points, despite being outgained 482 to 257 in net yards — the widest margin any winner has been outgained by in the 47 games played this season.

  • Week 2Sep 21, 2026

    Broncos 20, Jaguars 13 — Week 2: Down Ten, Then Seventeen Straight

    Denver beat Jacksonville 20-13 at home by scoring the final 17 points after trailing 13-3, with 288 passing yards, the third-most of any team so far in Week 2, six days after posting the fewest total yards in the league, and despite getting three points from its first six red-zone snaps.

  • Week 1Sep 15, 2026

    Broncos 10, Chiefs 31 — Week 1: Three Points From the Five

    Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City on Monday night after converting two of twelve third downs, gaining the fewest total yards of any team in Week 1, allowing 224 rushing yards, and turning Brandon Jones' interception return to the Kansas City five into a field goal.

  • Week 3 · What RepeatsSep 30, 2026

    Broncos, Week 3 — What Repeats: Least Catchable in the League

    Denver won while 18 of Bo Nix's 34 throws were charted catchable, 53 percent and the lowest of the 32 offenses this week, with 4 interception-worthy balls, a rate that has risen three weeks running; the Rams sent five or more rushers on only 23 percent of his dropbacks, ending the two-week line in the notebook, and Denver's own defense sent five or more at 41 percent and held Stafford to 34 catchable throws in 53.

  • Week 2 · What RepeatsSep 24, 2026

    Broncos, Week 2 — What Repeats: The Motion Came Back

    Denver used motion on 38 of 74 charted plays, 12th of 32 and above its own 2025 rate, a week after ranking 31st, while its defense sent five or more rushers at the 25th-highest rate yet contested 11 of Jacksonville's 29 throws, the highest share in Week 2 — and opponents have now sent five or more at Bo Nix well above 2025's rate two weeks running.

  • Week 1 · What RepeatsSep 16, 2026

    Broncos, Week 1 — What Repeats: Denver Cut the Motion Way Down

    The charting from Kansas City says Denver used motion on 26.5% of charted plays, 31st of 32 offenses in Week 1 and down from 37% across 2025, with play-action, run-pass options and no-huddle all thinner too, while Bo Nix's ball charting sat close to his 2025 figures. On defense, the Chiefs' designed runs met seven or more in the box 19 times in 31 and went for 197 yards, and Denver sent five or more rushers at the third-highest rate in the league.

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