Detroit Lions

Jared Goff threw 34 touchdown passes this year — second-most in the entire NFL. Let that sit for a second, because the team that quarterback led missed the playoffs. Here's what happened to the Lions offense when the schedule got serious, why a defense that piled up sacks still got beat in shootouts, and the one unit number that explains a nine-and-eight finish nobody in Detroit saw coming. Nine and eight. Out of the playoffs. First team on the outside in the NFC. The Lions didn't get muffed by a lack of firepower — they got muffed by a back half of the season where the losses kept landing in the same painful way.

Start with the team by the numbers, because the split is the whole story. Detroit's offense finished at plus 85.3 total expected points added — points generated above average across every snap — seventh in the league, 81st percentile. The defense came in at minus 10.3 expected points added allowed, and on defense negative is good — but 14th in the league is just barely better than average. Top-seven offense, middle-of-the-pack defense. The result? A team that hung 52 on the Bears, 44 on the Commanders, 44 on the Cowboys — then lost 41-34 to the Rams, 31-24 to the Packers, 29-24 to the Steelers. Boom-or-bust on one side, leaky on the other. Throw in just 19 takeaways on the season, 19th in the league, and you've got the recipe — explosive when it worked, no margin when it didn't.

Now let's talk about the passing offense, because this is where the Lions absolutely smashed. Total passing expected points added of plus 103.4, fifth in the league, 88th percentile. Per attempt, that's plus 0.17 — elite territory. Goff threw for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions, and his adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.5 ranked third among qualified starters. His completion percentage over expected sat at plus 1.6 — one and a half points higher than the average quarterback on those same throws. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the engine: 117 catches, 1,401 yards, 11 touchdowns on 172 targets, a 32 percent target share. And the passing game powered every signature win — the 52-burger on Chicago in Week 2, the 38-30 road win in Baltimore in Week 3. The nagging number: 39 sacks allowed, a six-point-three percent sack rate. Middle of the pack — and in the losses, it hurt.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this is where the picture flips. Total rushing expected points added: minus 23.5. That's 26th in the league, 22nd percentile. Bottom-of-the-league efficiency, full stop. The raw numbers look fine — 2,043 rushing yards on 443 carries, 4.6 a pop, 120 a game — but expected points added accounts for situation, and on too many early downs the run game stalled drives. The wild part? The talent was there. Jahmyr Gibbs went for 1,223 yards on 243 carries at five yards a clip with 13 rushing touchdowns — fifth in the league in rushing scores — and his rush yards over expected was plus 166.9, meaning he produced 166 more yards than the average back on those same carries. Boom-or-bust shape: the lane that opened up against the Buccaneers in Week 7 was the season in one snap — second quarter, first and ten from the Detroit 22, Gibbs takes it up the middle, 78 yards untouched for the score. He was the run game's ceiling. Everything around him on early downs was the floor.

Next up, the pass defense — the unit that confused people all year. The headline is great: 49 sacks, fourth in the NFL, 91st percentile. Aidan Hutchinson was a wrecking ball, and the front delivered 99 quarterback hits, 78th percentile. But the bottom line was just minus 4 expected points added allowed across the entire season of passing snaps. League average. So how does a defense that gets home that often finish only middle-of-the-pack against the pass? Two reasons. They allowed 31 passing touchdowns. And they generated just 13 interceptions. The takeaway version of the splash play wasn't there often enough. The pressure was elite. The finishing wasn't.

And the run defense — the quiet middle of the road. Detroit allowed 115.6 rushing yards a game and 16 rushing touchdowns, finishing right around league average — minus 6.4 expected points added allowed against the run, 47th percentile. Not gashed, not a brick wall. Week to week, the variance was real: steady in the Cleveland and Tampa wins, worn down late in the losses to Philadelphia and Minnesota. Steady-ish floor, no real ceiling. For a unit complementing a top-five passing offense, average against the run is survivable. Paired with a pass defense that didn't generate enough takeaways, it was just enough leak to cost them the playoffs.

Welcome back to Muffed. The Lions came into the 2026 draft without a third-round pick, made seven selections, and walked out with a class Brad Holmes basically described as a mood. Gritty football players. Run-stoppers. Guys he kept scribbling 'football player' next to in his notes. The headliner is Clemson tackle Blake Miller at 17, but five of seven picks came on defense, and the through-line is unmistakable: Detroit wanted to get harder to run on, harder to push around, a little meaner across the board. Holmes called it meat-and-potatoes. That's exactly what it is.

Start up front, because that's where the first-round capital went. Detroit allowed 39 sacks and 119 quarterback hits in 2025 — seven hits on the passer every single game — and Blake Miller is the answer. Quick definition: Relative Athletic Score is a zero-to-ten grade comparing a prospect's combine and pro day testing to every player at his position going back to 1987. Miller's 9.91 puts him in the top one percent of offensive tackles ever measured. Smashed-the-combine territory. Detroit didn't just want depth on the edge of the line — they wanted a tested athletic profile to build around, and Miller is the rare tackle who tested elite at every measurement that matters.

The pass rush got the biggest defensive investment at pick 44: Michigan edge Derrick Moore. His 9.5 sacks ranked 4th in the Big Ten and 15th nationally, with 10 tackles for loss and 29 total — premium pass-rush production against premium competition. Holmes said his staff had been watching Moore a long time, and when edges started flying off the board, they moved up to grab him. The other pass-defense swing came in the fifth at 157 — Arizona State corner Keith Abney the Second. His calling card is ball production: 12 pass breakups last year, 2nd in his conference, 8th nationally. The 6.63 Relative Athletic Score is average, but Holmes was emphatic the tape is the story. Sticky. Instinctive. A trigger-and-tackle corner Holmes said might tilt to the nickel at the NFL level, even though he played outside in college. They had him ranked a couple of rounds higher than where he fell.

Run defense got the heaviest volume — three picks, all aimed at making teams one-dimensional. The headliner is Michigan linebacker Jimmy Rolder in the fourth at 118. Rolder posted 73 tackles, 7 for loss, 2 sacks, and his 9.53 Relative Athletic Score lands in the top five percent of linebackers ever tested. Holmes was effusive: highly instinctive, doesn't miss tackles, stronger than you'd think, sets edges on request. His phrase — 'plays with his hair on fire.' Day three added two interior pressure bets, not run-down anchors. Sixth-rounder Skyler Gill-Howard out of Texas Tech tested at a below-average 5.61, but Holmes raved about the motor and quickness as a sub-package rusher. Then at 222, Tennessee's Tyre West — 7.5 tackles for loss and 4 sacks in a rotational role on a stacked Volunteers front, with a much cleaner 7.42 Relative Athletic Score. West was a pre-draft visit guy.

The passing offense got one swing: Kentucky receiver Kendrick Law at pick 168. The number that jumps off the page is his predicted points added — the college version of NFL expected points added — at plus 0.31 per play and plus 20.20 total across an SEC season on 53 catches for 540 yards and 3 touchdowns. That's genuinely efficient receiver play in the best conference in college football. Layer on a 9.66 Relative Athletic Score — top three percent of receivers ever tested — and you've got a fifth-round prospect with first-round traits. Holmes pushed back on the easy gadget narrative: Law was a four-phase special teams contributor in college, including gunner work, not just a return man. Holmes called him a dog. The role intent is multi-phase contributor, not pigeonholed gimmick.

Pick of the draft. You can argue Miller on round-one capital and a historic athletic profile. You can argue Moore — edges with that sack production rarely fall to the middle of round two. The pick here is Jimmy Rolder. Linebackers who test in the top five percent athletically AND grade as elite instinctual processors are the rarest archetype in this draft class, and Detroit got one in the fourth. Holmes said the quiet part out loud: you can be as big and explosive as you want at off-ball linebacker, but if you can't process, it doesn't translate. Rolder checks both columns. Miller and Moore were premium-priced premium picks. Rolder is the value pick that could end up looking like the best player in the class.

So what does this mean for 2026? The defense got five new bodies aimed squarely at being harder to move — an edge, a ball-skills corner, an instinctive linebacker, two interior pressure pieces. That's a clear identity reset after a year that ended with Detroit watching the playoffs from home. The open question is whether one premium swing on Miller is enough to fix a line that surrendered seven quarterback hits a game. If he settles in and the front seven plays the way Holmes is describing, this class ages really well. Meat and potatoes. That's the draft. That's Muffed.