Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love threw twenty-three touchdowns to just six interceptions and finished fifth in the league in adjusted net yards per attempt — and the Packers still watched the Wild Card from their couch by the second weekend. Here's how Green Bay's passing game smashed at a top-three level, why the run game and the takeaway defense quietly muffed the whole operation, and the one moment that sums up a nine-and-seven-and-one season that ended in Chicago. The Packers limped in as the seven seed and lost twenty-seven to thirty-one to the Bears in the Wild Card — a fitting finish for a team with the talent of a contender and the inconsistency of a pretender.

Let's start with the team by the numbers. Green Bay's offense finished at plus one hundred and fourteen point one in total expected points added — a measure of how much every snap improved their scoring chances — ranking fourth in the league, ninety-first percentile stuff. The defense allowed plus thirty-five point one, and on that side you want that number deep in the negatives. Plus thirty-five was twenty-second. Third down was the identity stat: one hundred conversions on two hundred and six tries, forty-eight point five percent, second in the entire NFL. But week to week? Boom-or-bust. This team hung forty on Dallas in Week 4, smashed Minnesota twenty-three to six in Week 12, then mustered three points in Minnesota in Week 18. Floor and ceiling were nowhere near each other.

Now let's talk about the passing offense, because this is where Green Bay genuinely smashed. Team passing expected points added came in at plus one hundred and eighteen point eight on five hundred and twenty attempts — plus zero point two three per dropback, third in the league, ninety-fourth percentile. Jordan Love completed sixty-six point three percent against an expected sixty-two point five, putting his completion percentage over expected at plus three point eight, fifth among qualified starters. The headline line: two hundred and ninety-one of four hundred and thirty-nine for three thousand three hundred and eighty-one yards, twenty-three touchdowns, six interceptions across fifteen games. The variance came from the supporting cast. Tucker Kraft was a force through eight games before disappearing, Christian Watson only played ten, and Romeo Doubs carried the receiver room with fifty-five catches for seven hundred and twenty-four yards and six touchdowns. When Love had everyone, this looked like a top-five unit.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this is where the story flips. Team rushing expected points added: minus fifteen point two on four hundred and ninety-two carries, minus zero point zero three per attempt, twentieth in the league, forty-first percentile. Four point one yards per carry looks fine on the surface — the advanced numbers say Green Bay wasn't winning at the line of scrimmage. Josh Jacobs ran two hundred and thirty-four times for nine hundred and twenty-nine yards and thirteen touchdowns, fourth in the league in rushing scores, but his rush yards over expected was minus seven point three, meaning he cashed in designed touchdowns rather than creating yards on his own. Steady floor, low ceiling — a red-zone touchdown-conversion machine and not much else, every single week.

Next up, the pass defense. Green Bay allowed plus forty-four point two six in passing expected points added — on defense you want that number negative, and plus forty-four is the secondary handing out scoring chances all year. Per dropback they allowed plus zero point zero eight, thirty-fourth percentile league-wide. Thirty-six sacks was twenty-first, thirty-eighth percentile. The takeaways were the real killer: thirteen total all season, seven interceptions and six fumble recoveries combined, twenty-eighth in the NFL. Sixteenth-percentile ball-hawking. When this defense did create a moment, it changed games — like the Week 12 strip-sack on Max Brosmer at the goal line that Brenton Cox recovered to keep Minnesota off the board in that twenty-three to six win. But those moments were the exception. Most weeks, opposing quarterbacks could drop back and operate.

And the run defense was, honestly, the one thing on this side of the ball that mostly held up. Green Bay allowed two thousand and eight rushing yards at one hundred and eighteen point one a game, and the run defense expected points added allowed came in at minus nine point one eight — a small negative, but on defense negative is what you want, and it landed right at the fiftieth percentile. Per carry they allowed minus zero point zero two, so opposing backs averaged nothing extra. Steady floor all year. Fifteen rushing touchdowns surrendered over seventeen games is workable. It wasn't a wall, but it wasn't the leak. The leak was the pass defense, the leak was the lack of takeaways, and against a Bears team that could lean on its quarterback, that combination is what ended the year.