Houston Texans

Houston's defense finished minus one hundred and twenty-nine in expected points added allowed — first in the entire league. Out of thirty-two. Here's how the league's best defense dragged this team to twelve wins, why the offense couldn't punch it in close, and the one stat that explains how the season ended. Twelve and five, a wild card berth, a thirty to six demolition of the Steelers, then a sixteen to twenty-eight divisional exit in New England. This was a defense-wins-football season — until it wasn't.

Let me set the team-level table. The defense led the league at minus one hundred and twenty-nine in expected points added allowed — that's how much Houston lowered opponents' scoring chances per snap, and nobody did it more. The offense? Minus thirteen point nine in expected points added, twenty-first, thirty-eighth percentile. Houston also led the NFL in field goal percentage at ninety-two point three percent — forty-eight of fifty-two. And here's where the story sharpens: only forty-two point two percent of their scoring drives ended in touchdowns. Dead last. That mix tells you everything. After an oh-and-three start with losses to the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars where the offense couldn't break twenty, this team rattled off twelve wins in fourteen games. The defense was the steady floor every week. The offense was a parade of field goals.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. C.J. Stroud and the passing game finished plus twenty-one point nine in expected points added on six hundred and eighteen attempts — a hair above league average, fifteenth, fifty-sixth percentile. Stroud himself: two hundred and seventy-three of four hundred and twenty-three for three thousand forty-one yards, nineteen touchdowns, eight interceptions across fourteen games, with completion percentage over expected of plus zero point eight — right at expectation. The headline number isn't a counting stat though. It's thirty-one sacks allowed on six hundred and forty-eight dropbacks, a four point eight percent sack rate, twenty-sixth in the league. Stroud absorbed twenty-three himself. Nico Collins led the receiving room — seventy-one catches, eleven hundred and seventeen yards, six touchdowns on a twenty-four percent target share. Boom-or-bust on a weekly basis: in week five at Baltimore, in a forty-four to ten beatdown, this passing game looked top-five. Most other weeks it looked exactly like the numbers say — average, sack-prone, and reliant on Collins to manufacture explosives.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where the season got muffed. Houston finished minus forty-four point nine in expected points added on four hundred and seventy-six carries — thirtieth, ninth percentile. A bottom-three rushing attack by efficiency. Three point nine yards per carry, twenty-second. Woody Marks led the team with one hundred and ninety-six carries for seven hundred and three yards — three point six a pop — and two rushing touchdowns. Low floor, low ceiling, almost every week. And it shows up in the worst place — the red zone. Houston scored touchdowns on just fifty point seven percent of red-zone trips, thirty-first in the league, sixth percentile. When you can't run it inside the twenty, you settle for three. Which is exactly why that kicker led the league in field goal percentage.

Next up, the pass defense. This was the unit that smashed. Houston allowed minus one hundred and nine in expected points added across the season — minus zero point one nine per dropback. Forty-seven sacks, seventh in the league, eighty-first percentile. Twenty-eight takeaways including nineteen interceptions, third in the league, ninety-fourth percentile. An opportunistic, ball-hawking, quarterback-hunting unit working in concert all year. The defining moment came in week eleven at Tennessee, fourth quarter, third and ten, Texans up ten to six. Will Anderson Jr. arrived on Cam Ward, stripped the ball, recovered it himself at the Tennessee thirty-four. One play, one sack, one fumble, one recovery — minus four point four expected points for the Titans. That's the identity in a single snap: get home, get the ball, change the game. Consistent week to week — even in losses to Seattle and Denver, the defense kept Houston in striking distance. This is the engine that made twelve wins possible.

And the run defense matched the standard. Houston allowed ninety-four point one rushing yards per game and posted a rushing expected points added allowed of minus nineteen point seven — seventy-fifth percentile, top-eight in the league. Per carry, opponents managed just minus zero point zero five in expected points. Nothing easy on the ground all year. Thirteen rushing touchdowns allowed across seventeen games, right around the league benchmark. No single hero story here — a collective front-seven effort that complemented the pass rush. Steady, disciplined, and largely uneventful in the best way a run defense can be.

Welcome back to Muffed. The Houston Texans walked into the 2026 NFL Draft with eight picks and walked out with a class that screams trenches, trenches, trenches. No quarterback drama, no flashy skill swing — Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans doubled down on the lines of scrimmage. The headliner: Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge at 26, followed by Ohio State defensive tackle Kayden McDonald early in the second. Add a freak-athlete tight end, two linebackers, and a possession receiver, and the theme writes itself: build the walls on both sides, then layer in character guys who fit DeMeco's locker room.

Start up front on offense, because that's where this class is anchored. Houston spent 2025 watching its quarterback absorb 31 sacks and 78 hits — four and a half shots on the passer every single game — while the rushing offense posted minus 36 expected points added on the season. Enter Rutledge at 26, who smashed the combine with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.52 at guard. Quick definition: Relative Athletic Score is a 0-to-10 grade comparing a prospect's combine and pro-day testing to every player at his position since 1987. A 9.52 puts Rutledge in the top 5 percent of every guard ever tested. Caserio doubled back in the fourth at 106 for Oklahoma's Febechi Nwaiwu — a more modest 6.04 score, but real positional flex at guard and center. Caserio's words: quote, sturdy as hell, he's thick, he's really, really strong, end quote. Houston had Nwaiwu circled at 91. They got him fifteen picks later. Board win.

Flip to the defensive front, and McDonald at 36 tells you exactly how Houston wants this defense to feel. The 2025 run defense was already solid — 94 rushing yards a game, minus 0.05 expected points added allowed per carry — but Ryans framed McDonald as a philosophy shift. Houston's had success with smaller, explosive tackles, he said, but lost snaps in the run game. McDonald is, quote, a bonafide defensive tackle who's stout versus the run. He brought 65 tackles, 9 for loss, and 3 sacks out of Ohio State as a young interior player. In round four at 123, Houston grabbed Clemson linebacker Wade Woodaz — 70 tackles, 7 for loss, 3 pass breakups, and an 8.64 Relative Athletic Score that lands in the top 15 percent of linebackers ever measured. Caserio said the staff had, quote, a vision and a role for him. They closed the run-defense investment in round seven at 243 with Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher, whose 95 tackles, 10.5 for loss, and 4.5 sacks were the most productive line in the class. A 6.30 Relative Athletic Score keeps him in the depth-and-special-teams conversation, but the college tape did work.

The passing-game additions came in rounds two and six, headlined by Michigan tight end Marlin Klein at 59. Counting numbers are modest — 24 catches, 248 yards, one touchdown in the Big Ten — but his per-play predicted points added, the college equivalent of NFL expected points added, was plus 0.21, totaling plus 8.10 on the season. Elite efficiency on limited volume. Stack the athletic profile on top: a 9.01 Relative Athletic Score at tight end, top 10 percent ever. Ryans said Klein was one of his first interviews at the combine and the tape sold him from the jump. In round six at 204, Houston added Boston College receiver Lewis Bond — 89 catches for 1,010 yards, fifth nationally, third in the ACC. Testing came in at 5.82, muffed-the-measurables territory, but Caserio leaned into the football traits, calling Bond, quote, one of the smartest players McDaniels ever talked to in the process.

The lone pass-defense addition: USC safety Kamari Ramsey in round five at 141. Houston's 2025 pass defense already allowed minus 0.19 expected points added per play — opponent passing offenses were losing value against them. So Ramsey is depth and developmental athleticism behind a unit that doesn't need saving. The college line is light — 21 tackles, 1.5 for loss, no interceptions, 2 pass breakups — but the sell is an 8.65 Relative Athletic Score, top 14 percent of free safeties ever tested.

Pick of the draft. You can argue McDonald for the philosophical reset on the defensive front. You can argue Klein for the athletic-plus-efficiency combo at a premium position. The pick is Rutledge. Houston took eight swings and only one inside the top 25 — the player they put first-round capital on has to anchor the class. A top-5-percent athletic profile on the interior, in front of a quarterback who took 78 hits, behind a rushing offense that posted minus 36 expected points added. Guards with 9.5-plus testing at his size don't come around every cycle. Rutledge changes the math on both problems at once.

Going into 2026, the question is whether the trench investments show up where it counts: the run game on offense, early downs against the run on defense. Houston's 2025 rushing offense was minus 0.08 expected points added per carry — that's the unit that needs Rutledge and Nwaiwu to land. And McDonald changes how this defense looks on first and second down, full stop. Caserio called this class full of, quote, big smile, big energy guys who love football. The data says they're also bigger, more athletic, and built for the lines. Trenches draft. Buckle up.