Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor led the entire NFL in rushing touchdowns with eighteen. Eighteen — on a team that missed the playoffs. Here's how the Colts built one of the best rushing attacks in football, why Daniel Jones quietly had the best year of his career before going down, and the defensive number that explains how a seven-and-one start turned into eight and nine. Second among AFC teams on the outside looking in. They started seven and one, all but one of those wins by double digits, and the wheels came off — but the offense was real, and the data tells you exactly where it broke.

Start with the team-level picture. The Colts finished plus seventy-two point nine in total offensive expected points added — ninth in the league, seventy-fifth percentile. The defense? Plus four point seven expected points added allowed, and remember, on defense you want that number deeply negative — so plus four point seven is middle of the pack, sixteenth. Third down was a real strength: forty-three percent conversion rate, eighth in the NFL. The schedule tells the variance story by itself — seven wins in the first eight games, then seven losses in the final nine, including a forty-eight to twenty-seven home blowout to the Niners in Week 16. This was not a steady team. This was a team that smashed the front half and got muffed the back half.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Daniel Jones threw for thirty-one hundred and one yards, nineteen touchdowns, and only eight interceptions in thirteen games before injury took him out around Week 15. His completion percentage was sixty-eight against an expected of sixty-four point six — plus three point four over expectation, sixth-best among qualified starters. His adjusted net yards per attempt of seven point three also ranked sixth. Genuinely the best stretch of Jones's career. As a unit, the passing game finished plus thirty-two point nine in passing expected points added on five hundred and eighty-two attempts, twelfth in the league — but boom-or-bust, with a clear cliff at the quarterback position once Jones went down. The unit had a top-ten ceiling with Jones healthy. Without him, it fell off a cliff.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this is where the Colts genuinely smashed. Plus thirty-four expected points added on the ground — third in the entire NFL, ninety-fourth percentile. Two thousand and nine rushing yards, a hundred and eighteen point two per game, four point five a carry, twenty-seven rushing scores as a team. Jonathan Taylor was the engine: three hundred and twenty-three carries, fifteen hundred and eighty-five yards, four point nine a pop, and the league-leading eighteen rushing touchdowns. Unlike the passing game, this was the steady floor — even after Jones went down, Taylor kept eating, including an eighty-three-yard touchdown up the middle against the Falcons in Week 10 to flip a 16-17 fourth-quarter deficit. That one run was worth plus six point four expected points by itself. When the rest of the season fell apart, Taylor's production did not. That's the identity of this offense.

Next up, the pass defense — where the math gets uncomfortable. The Colts allowed plus twenty-six expected points added through the air, and on defense you want that number deeply negative, so a positive number means opposing passing games were moving the ball on you. Two hundred and sixty-two and a half passing yards allowed per game. Thirty-nine sacks, sixteenth in the league, fifty-third percentile — middle of the pack pressure. The one thing this unit did well was take the ball away: twenty-two total takeaways including fourteen interceptions, tenth in the NFL, seventy-second percentile. But the back half of the year exposed the coverage — forty-eight points hung on them by the Niners, thirty-eight by the Texans in the finale. Boom-or-bust, and the busts came when it mattered most.

And the run defense was actually the better side of the ball. The Colts allowed minus twenty-one point seven expected points added on the ground — and on defense, that big negative number is exactly what you want. Seventy-eighth percentile in the league. A hundred and two rushing yards a game allowed, sixteen rushing touchdowns surrendered. A quietly good run-stopping unit, steady week after week. Not the loudest stat on the sheet, but the most consistent thing the Colts defense did all year — when teams tried to run on Indy, they generally got nothing.

Welcome into Muffed, your Colts 2026 draft recap. Indianapolis showed up to this draft without a first-rounder — already spent — so the haul starts on Day 2 and runs eight picks deep. The headliner is Georgia linebacker CJ Allen at 53, and the through-line is exactly what Chris Ballard said at the podium: get younger and faster on defense. Six of eight picks landed on that side of the ball, the SEC and Big Ten are stamped all over the board, and the late rounds lean hard into special-teams utility. Defense-first reset. Clear identity.

The run defense got the loudest investment. Indy's 2025 ground unit was actually fine in raw expected points added — minus 21.74 allowed, a positive mark — but it surrendered 16 rushing touchdowns and 102 yards a game, and the front seven needed a younger spine. Enter Allen: 88 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 4 pass breakups, the every-down line you expect from a multi-year starter at the most demanding linebacker factory in college football. Ballard says he's trending toward Mike and the green-dot signal-caller role; Shane Steichen leaned on the leadership and the edge as the culture fit. The Round 4 follow-up is Oregon's Bryce Boettcher — 132 tackles, a 7.14 Relative Athletic Score (the 0-to-10 benchmark grading combine and pro-day testing against every player at the position since 1987, so solidly above average). Ballard called him a blue-card guy, a former Astros draft pick who walked on and earned it, and sees him competing at both Mike and Will. Two linebackers, two résumés of real college snaps — nobody has to project them as plug-ins.

The pass defense is where the speed-and-youth mandate really shows up. Indy generated just 39 sacks in 2025 and watched the AFC South alone hang 24 passing touchdowns on this group. Round 3 brought LSU safety A.J. Haulcy at 78 — 88 tackles, 4 pass breakups, the physical SEC profile Ballard targets, and a name he said climbed the board as they vetted the tape. Round 5 was Florida edge George Gumbs Jr. and a 9.19 Relative Athletic Score — roughly the top 8 percent of edge defenders ever tested. The production is light (31 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks), and Ballard was transparent: walk-on at Northern Illinois, played wideout and tight end before Florida moved him to defensive end, now the Colts will drop him to outside-backer rusher, lean on him on teams, and let the traits cook. The actual pass-rush production came in Round 6 — Ohio State's Caden Curry, a local kid from a Westfield-area state title game Ballard watched in person. Curry posted 16.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks as a senior, 2nd in the Big Ten and 9th nationally in sacks, 3rd in the conference in tackles for loss. Ballard relayed that Larry Johnson texted him calling Curry one of the better football players he's been around. The arm-length conversation is real and Ballard owned it — but top-10 national sack production in the sixth round is a swing you take.

The offensive line investment is a single shot, and it's loud. Indy's 2025 offense allowed only 29 sacks, so Round 4, pick 113 wasn't a panic move — it was a value strike. Kentucky guard Jalen Farmer arrives with a 9.83 Relative Athletic Score, top 2 percent of every offensive guard ever measured. Ballard compared the value to the Bernhard Raimann pick, called Farmer a big, powerful man with swing at tackle, and laid out the plan: start him inside through OTAs and summer camp, then mix and match in training camp.

The offense gets two more swings in Round 7, both with intent. Kentucky's Seth McGowan brings 165 carries for 725 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns — tied for 4th in the SEC — plus a 9.47 Relative Athletic Score, top 4 percent at the position. Ballard openly addressed the off-field history from McGowan's Oklahoma days, said the team vetted it hard through his Kentucky and New Mexico State connections, and called him a real physical element. Then at pick 254 — the last pick of the draft — Indy grabbed Oklahoma wideout Deion Burks, a player Ballard flat-out said they didn't think would be there. The line: 57 catches, 620 yards, 4 touchdowns, plus 0.26 predicted points added per play, and a 9.11 Relative Athletic Score. Steichen called him a 4.2 speed guy who beats press despite his size, with a quick release and real separation at the top of routes. Ballard wants him in the return game too. For the final pick of the draft, that's a smashed value swing.

Pick of the draft is CJ Allen. You could argue Curry on pure college production or Farmer on pure athletic profile — those are real cases. Allen wins because of what he changes about this team. The linebacker room needed a long-term identity, Steichen explicitly framed him as a future leader, and Ballard's already penciling him in at green dot. Day-2 linebackers from Georgia with three-down tape are the rarest commodity in this entire haul. Production, position, role intent — all aligned.

The biggest thing to watch in 2026 is whether the front seven actually plays faster. Six defensive picks, two new linebackers, two developmental edge rushers, a starting-caliber safety — Ballard said the goal was younger and faster, and now the tape has to confirm it against an AFC South that lit this defense up through the air. The offense got value swings but no top-100 investment, so the bet is that Steichen's existing pieces hold while the defense gets its teeth back.