Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes finished nineteenth in adjusted net yards per attempt. Nineteenth. The guy with three rings, three MVPs, the face of the league — nineteenth among qualified starters. Here's how a top-twelve offense by the numbers ended up six and eleven, why the rushing attack quietly carried more weight than the passing game, and the one defensive number that tells you exactly why this team kept losing close ones. Six wins, eleven losses, no playoffs — fifth in the AFC pecking order of teams sitting home in January. The Chiefs got muffed. The dynasty took a year off.

Let's start with the team by the numbers, because the surface story and the deep story don't agree. Total offensive expected points added was plus thirty-six point six, eleventh in the league, sixty-ninth percentile. The defense was fine too: minus nineteen point eight expected points added allowed, twelfth in the league — and on defense, negative is good. So how does an eleventh-ranked offense and twelfth-ranked defense go six and eleven? The close games. Five losses by three points or fewer — the Chargers in week one, the Eagles in week two, the Jaguars in week five, the Broncos in week eleven, the Chargers again in week fifteen. Never blown out, never dominant. Steady, mediocre, and on the wrong side of every coin flip. Third-down conversion rate was thirty-eight percent, twenty-third in the league. Takeaways: fourteen all season, twenty-seventh. When you don't get off the field on third down and don't generate splash plays on defense, close games tilt against you. That's the season in one sentence.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Total passing expected points added of plus twenty-four point nine on six hundred and thirty-four attempts — thirteenth in the league, sixty-third percentile. Solid. Not elite. Mahomes' completion percentage over expected was minus two point nine — he completed passes at a lower rate than the league model expected given his throws — and that ranked thirty-first among qualified starters. Thirty-first. He threw for three thousand five hundred and eighty-seven yards, twenty-two touchdowns, eleven interceptions, took thirty-four sacks. The receiver group was a committee — Travis Kelce led the team with seventy-six catches for eight hundred and fifty-one yards and five touchdowns. The single play that defines the passing year: week five in Jacksonville, second and three at the Jaguars' three, tied at fourteen, Mahomes throws short middle for JuJu Smith-Schuster, picked at the goal line and returned ninety-nine yards for a touchdown. Negative twelve point six six expected points on one snap. Close to a touchdown, walked off with seven points the other direction. The season in microcosm.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this is the unit that quietly outperformed everything else. Total rushing expected points added of plus eight point five — sixth in the league, eighty-fourth percentile. Genuinely good. The yards per carry tells a different story: four point two, twenty-fifth in the league, twenty-fifth percentile. Per-carry efficiency wasn't there, but the unit added value where it mattered — short yardage, goal line, situational. Kareem Hunt was the lead: eight rushing scores on a hundred and sixty-three carries for six hundred and eleven yards, nineteenth in the league in rushing touchdowns, with rush yards over expected of plus seventeen point seven — slightly above the model. Consistent floor, low ceiling — the Chiefs averaged a hundred and six point six rushing yards per game, almost never explosive, but reliable.

Next up, the pass defense. Total passing expected points added allowed was essentially zero per play — which sounds fine until you look at the splash numbers. Only thirty-five sacks, twenty-second in the league, thirty-fourth percentile. Fourteen total takeaways, twenty-seventh. The secondary did not generate the negative plays a championship defense generates. Third-down stop rate ranked just sixteenth percentile — opponents converted forty-four percent. The bright spot was the quarterback hit rate, five point eight per game, seventy-fifth percentile. The pressure was there. The finish wasn't. The Chiefs needed splash. They got far too little.

And the run defense — this is the unit that actually held up. Total rushing expected points added allowed was minus eighteen point five, seventy-second percentile in the league, and that big negative number is good for defense. The Chiefs allowed a hundred and six point six rushing yards per game, fourteen rushing touchdowns on four hundred and thirty-three carries. Steady week to week, rarely the unit that lost a game. The front held up on early downs; the issue was always pass-rush finish and third-down stops, not the run fits. If you're looking for a piece of the 2025 Chiefs that still plays like the Chiefs, it's the run front.