Kansas City Chiefs — 2026 season outlook, updated Oct 6, 2026.
Kansas City Chiefs finished the 2026 season 4-0.
Kansas City Chiefs: 6-11 regular season.
Based on verified play-by-play data (nflverse).
By the numbers — 2026
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2026 schedule
- Bye week 5 — see all 2026 byes.
- 27th-hardest schedule — opponents average 8.21 projected wins.
- Chiefs backfield and handcuffs — depth chart, refreshed daily.
Chiefs players we cover
Chiefs 30, Raiders 27 — Week 4: Thirteen Points in Thirty-Three Seconds
Kansas City won 30-27 in Las Vegas after trailing 19-17 with 3:35 left, scoring 13 points in 33 seconds of game clock on a 55-yard Tyquan Thornton catch, a recovered kickoff fumble and two Kenneth Walker touchdowns. Walker ran 22 times for 177 yards, and the run game gained 7.9 yards per designed run against the lightest boxes it has seen this season.
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More episodes
- Camp · Sep 3, 2026
Chiefs Camp — Sep 3: Harris Cut and Back in Two Days
Kansas City spent the ninth waiver priority on two defensive front players — edge rusher Jack Pyburn and defensive tackle Bryson Eason — and paid with two men off its own fifty-three; one of them, Marcus Harris, cleared waivers and was back on the practice squad by Wednesday. The Associated Press reported Wednesday that Patrick Mahomes appears on track to start against Denver, with no contact clearance announced and Andy Reid saying he will keep practicing as he has. The counterweight: left tackle Josh Simmons has not practiced since the last week of camp and a specialist's look at his back was not conclusive.
- Camp · Aug 31, 2026
Chiefs Camp — Aug 31: Mahomes Practicing Fully, Not Yet Cleared for Week 1
The Chiefs cut to 53 with the only question that matters still open: Patrick Mahomes is practicing fully approaching the nine-month mark of his knee rehab but has no clearance for game contact, and Justin Fields starts against Denver if that doesn't change. Around the quarterback, the front office traded for two offensive linemen in a week, kept a three-man backfield with rookie Emmett Johnson in it, and waived a receiver coming off what one beat writer called a killer preseason.
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Chiefs Camp — Aug 23: Butker Hits From 69, Then Gives It Back
Harrison Butker hit a 69-yard field goal on the last play of the first half in Tampa, then missed a 43-yarder and an extra point in a 16-15 loss played almost entirely by reserves. Rookie Emmett Johnson scored again, Garrett Nussmeier ran the touchdown drive, and first-round corner Mansoor Delane made his debut — while Eric Bieniemy returned to the building and camp closed with the starting receivers still waiting on their first preseason snap.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs Camp Update — August 16: Worthy and Rice Are Back With Mahomes
The receiver room that spent last week sitting out padded practices spent this week catching passes from Mahomes. Xavier Worthy returned early in the week, Rashee Rice looked fully integrated Thursday, and the Bieniemy absence turned out to be a family tragedy, not a football mystery. The preseason loss to the Rams involved almost nobody who matters in September.
- Camp · Aug 9, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs Camp Update — August 9: Xavier Worthy Hasn't Practiced Since the First Padded Day
Mahomes is on schedule — brace under the pants, mobility improving weekly, chippy-camp quotes. It's everything around him that's complicating: Worthy's shoulder has cost him the whole padded phase, Rice keeps ducking out for maintenance, and the pass-game coordinator has quietly run the offense for over a week.
- 2026 Preview
Kansas City Chiefs 2026 Season Preview — the Bounce Is Priced, the Book on Mahomes Isn't
The 6-11 was a coin-flip season and the rebound is real — the question nobody's pricing is whether KC solved the man-coverage book on Mahomes.
- Season Review
6-11 regular season
- Draft Recap
7 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft
- Week 3
Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10 — Week 3: Passing Carries It, the Run Stalls
Kansas City beat Miami 24-10 on the road to go 3-0, as 24 pass plays produced plus 12.9 expected points and the defense held Miami to 7 successful runs in 31, while a run game that ranked 2nd and 3rd in Weeks 1 and 2 was worth minus 6.2 on 25 rush plays.
- Week 2
Chiefs 33, Colts 30 — Week 2: Third and One in Overtime
Kansas City beat Indianapolis 33-30 in overtime at home on Sunday night behind 382 passing yards and 534 total yards, both the most of the 30 teams that have played in Week 2, no turnovers, and a 40-yard Harrison Butker field goal with one second left in overtime.
- Week 1
Chiefs 31, Broncos 10 — Week 1: Sixty Yards on Fourth and One
Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 on Monday night at Arrowhead behind 224 rushing yards on 35 rush plays, the second-most valuable run game of any team in Week 1 by expected points, a defense that stopped ten of twelve third downs, and a fourth-and-one from its own forty that Kenneth Walker turned into a sixty-yard touchdown.
- Week 3 · What Repeats
Chiefs, Week 3 — What Repeats: Twelve for Twelve Off the Fake
Kansas City faked a handoff on 12 of 25 dropbacks in Miami, 48 percent, the highest rate in the league this week and a third straight rise from last season's 15, and Patrick Mahomes completed all 12 play-action throws for 194 of his 246 yards; the run game's heavier boxes repeated, but the yards did not, at 3.6 per designed run after 6.4 and 5.0.
- Week 2 · What Repeats
Chiefs, Week 2 — What Repeats: Play-Action at Double, Again
For a second straight week Kansas City used play-action on roughly double or more its 2025 rate (37 percent of dropbacks, 4th of 32, after 30 percent in Week 1 and 15 percent in 2025), threw screens on 18 percent (2nd of 32; 9 percent in 2025), and its designed runs again met fewer light boxes than last season and still went for 5.0 yards each.
- Week 1 · What Repeats
Chiefs, Week 1 — What Repeats: Heavy Boxes Didn't Stop the Run
The charting says Kansas City's designed runs met seven or more in the box on 19 of 31 and still went for 197 yards — after a light box on 68% of designed runs across 2025, it was 39% on Monday. Play-action doubled to 30% of dropbacks, and Patrick Mahomes' catchable rate was 63% (25th of 32) against the third-highest five-or-more rusher rate of the week.
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From The Muffed Read
- Which first-month signals are real? San Francisco's offense, Atlanta's run game, Minnesota's blitz, the five 0-4 teams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's targets, run through a ruler built for four games.
Four games in, how a team plays repeats far better than how well it plays: blitz rate, run-pass lean and target share all carry into the rest of the season at 0.51 or better, defensive results at 0.29 and touchdowns at 0.19. And no 0-4 team in ten seasons has reached the playoffs; this season has five.
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Chicago scored 59, then 3. The Rams scored 7, then 28. Carolina allowed 59, then 3. The loud numbers flipped. The usage held — for Coker, for Walker, and for the ruler.
- Which Week 1 results should you believe? Chicago's 59, the Rams' 7, Kansas City's defense and the Week 1 hero, run through Issue 5's ruler.
Seven of last year's fourteen playoff teams lost their opener. A 6–11 team beat a 14–3 team by three touchdowns. Two weeks ago this newsletter built a ruler for exactly this. Here's what it says.
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Kansas City won all eleven of its one-score games in 2024, then one all of 2025. Denver just went 11-2 in them. A decade of data on what a record proves — and what it only borrows.
- How are NFL games actually won? The sport under the sport, in 19,811 charted dropbacks.
Pressure turned the league's best passer into a below-average one. Blitzing didn't buy what fans think. And the best pass in football came dressed as a run. The hidden layer of 2025.
- What actually happened in the 2025 NFL season? The year, retold by the data.
Three teams went 14-3 and got there three completely different ways. The champion looked old-fashioned on purpose. And the league's most talked-about defense wasn't one. A look back at what really decided last season — before the next one starts.
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