Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes finished nineteenth in adjusted net yards per attempt. Nineteenth. The guy with three rings, three MVPs, the face of the league — nineteenth among qualified starters. Here's how a top-twelve offense by the numbers ended up six and eleven, why the rushing attack quietly carried more weight than the passing game, and the one defensive number that tells you exactly why this team kept losing close ones. Six wins, eleven losses, no playoffs — fifth in the AFC pecking order of teams sitting home in January. The Chiefs got muffed. The dynasty took a year off.

Let's start with the team by the numbers, because the surface story and the deep story don't agree. Total offensive expected points added was plus thirty-six point six, eleventh in the league, sixty-ninth percentile. The defense was fine too: minus nineteen point eight expected points added allowed, twelfth in the league — and on defense, negative is good. So how does an eleventh-ranked offense and twelfth-ranked defense go six and eleven? The close games. Five losses by three points or fewer — the Chargers in week one, the Eagles in week two, the Jaguars in week five, the Broncos in week eleven, the Chargers again in week fifteen. Never blown out, never dominant. Steady, mediocre, and on the wrong side of every coin flip. Third-down conversion rate was thirty-eight percent, twenty-third in the league. Takeaways: fourteen all season, twenty-seventh. When you don't get off the field on third down and don't generate splash plays on defense, close games tilt against you. That's the season in one sentence.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Total passing expected points added of plus twenty-four point nine on six hundred and thirty-four attempts — thirteenth in the league, sixty-third percentile. Solid. Not elite. Mahomes' completion percentage over expected was minus two point nine — he completed passes at a lower rate than the league model expected given his throws — and that ranked thirty-first among qualified starters. Thirty-first. He threw for three thousand five hundred and eighty-seven yards, twenty-two touchdowns, eleven interceptions, took thirty-four sacks. The receiver group was a committee — Travis Kelce led the team with seventy-six catches for eight hundred and fifty-one yards and five touchdowns. The single play that defines the passing year: week five in Jacksonville, second and three at the Jaguars' three, tied at fourteen, Mahomes throws short middle for JuJu Smith-Schuster, picked at the goal line and returned ninety-nine yards for a touchdown. Negative twelve point six six expected points on one snap. Close to a touchdown, walked off with seven points the other direction. The season in microcosm.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this is the unit that quietly outperformed everything else. Total rushing expected points added of plus eight point five — sixth in the league, eighty-fourth percentile. Genuinely good. The yards per carry tells a different story: four point two, twenty-fifth in the league, twenty-fifth percentile. Per-carry efficiency wasn't there, but the unit added value where it mattered — short yardage, goal line, situational. Kareem Hunt was the lead: eight rushing scores on a hundred and sixty-three carries for six hundred and eleven yards, nineteenth in the league in rushing touchdowns, with rush yards over expected of plus seventeen point seven — slightly above the model. Consistent floor, low ceiling — the Chiefs averaged a hundred and six point six rushing yards per game, almost never explosive, but reliable.

Next up, the pass defense. Total passing expected points added allowed was essentially zero per play — which sounds fine until you look at the splash numbers. Only thirty-five sacks, twenty-second in the league, thirty-fourth percentile. Fourteen total takeaways, twenty-seventh. The secondary did not generate the negative plays a championship defense generates. Third-down stop rate ranked just sixteenth percentile — opponents converted forty-four percent. The bright spot was the quarterback hit rate, five point eight per game, seventy-fifth percentile. The pressure was there. The finish wasn't. The Chiefs needed splash. They got far too little.

And the run defense — this is the unit that actually held up. Total rushing expected points added allowed was minus eighteen point five, seventy-second percentile in the league, and that big negative number is good for defense. The Chiefs allowed a hundred and six point six rushing yards per game, fourteen rushing touchdowns on four hundred and thirty-three carries. Steady week to week, rarely the unit that lost a game. The front held up on early downs; the issue was always pass-rush finish and third-down stops, not the run fits. If you're looking for a piece of the 2025 Chiefs that still plays like the Chiefs, it's the run front.

Welcome to Muffed. The Kansas City Chiefs just turned in their most defense-forward draft in years — and they did it without trading up or getting cute. Seven picks, four on defense, headlined by cornerback Mansoor Delane at pick six. The theme, in the GM's own words, is speed on defense. The verdict: this front office decided the offense was fine and the defense needed teeth, length, and a 4.38 corner to chase wideouts around the AFC. Let's get into it.

Start with the pass defense, where Kansas City spent three picks including the top one. The unit held up on paper in 2025 — minus 1.28 in expected points added allowed — but 35 sacks and just 13 takeaways across 17 games told the front office to upgrade cover and rush at the same time. Enter Delane out of LSU: 45 tackles, 11 pass breakups, a number that led the SEC and ranked 12th nationally. The Chiefs zoomed him last week and the GM called him as consistent a cover guy as Kansas City has scouted in five years. At pick 40, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas — 6.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss, a 7.25 Relative Athletic Score (the 0-to-10 grade comparing combine and pro-day testing to every player at the position since 1987). The real headline is the 4.65 forty at 245 pounds. The GM was blunt: Kansas City has missed a true speed rusher off the edge, and Thomas's job is to make tackles turn their hips quick so the interior can clean up. Round four added Oregon corner Jadon Canady — 39 tackles, six pass breakups, a 6.50 Relative Athletic Score — as depth behind Delane.

The run defense was already a quiet strength — minus 18.51 in rushing expected points added allowed, 4.2 yards per carry surrendered — and Kansas City doubled down at the back of round one with Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods. A 7.60 Relative Athletic Score puts him in the upper third of defensive tackles tested since 1987. He's 21. He posted 29 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks — and got eight goal-line carries for two rushing touchdowns, which tells you everything about his lower-body power. The GM called him a prototype three-technique who can slide to nose, heavy-handed, ascending. That's how you keep a strength a strength.

On the passing offense, Kansas City waited until day three and bet on production. Round five, pick 176, Cincinnati receiver Cyrus Allen: 50 catches, 660 yards, 12 receiving touchdowns — that touchdown total led the Big 12 and ranked 8th nationally. His predicted points added (the college equivalent of NFL expected points added) was plus 0.62 per play, plus 40.94 on the season. That's loud for a fifth-rounder. The Relative Athletic Score sits at 8.69 — top-15-percent athleticism at the position. At pick 249, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier — 1,927 yards, 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception split, plus 66.18 in total predicted points added in the SEC. A developmental room add behind the franchise quarterback, and the value at 249 is real.

The rushing offense got one swing, and it was a good one. The 2025 ground game averaged just 107 yards a game and barely cleared zero in per-carry expected points added — so at pick 161, Nebraska's Emmett Johnson. 251 carries, 1,451 yards, 12 touchdowns on the ground, plus 46 catches for 370 out of the backfield. That rushing total led the Big Ten and ranked 11th nationally. The 5.76 Relative Athletic Score is middle-of-the-road, but a dual-threat back at 22 in the fifth is exactly the swing this offense needed.

Pick of the draft is Delane, and the case isn't just that he went sixth. You can argue Woods. You can argue Thomas. Delane is the one because of positional scarcity and the GM's conviction. Premium man-coverage corners who run 4.38, transfer up to the SEC, and get more consistent — not less — don't fall to you twice. The GM said Delane answered every question about his speed at his pro-day, and the front office had been tracking him since 2024 at Virginia Tech. Edge rushers like Thomas come through every draft. Three-techniques like Woods come through most drafts. A locked-in cover corner who steps up to LSU and ascends? Rare. First card in.

Looking ahead to 2026, the biggest thing to watch is whether this defense actually plays faster — because that was the stated mission of the entire class. A 4.38 corner, a 4.65 edge, and a 7.60-Relative-Athletic-Score interior disruptor are all in the building. The question is whether 13 takeaways across 17 games turns into a real turnover number when those three share the field. The offense got depth and a touchdown-machine slot receiver but no premium investment, so the pressure on this defense to carry games is real. If the speed shows up on Sundays, this class smashed. If takeaways stay at 0.8 a game, the conversation gets harder. Kansas City picked a lane and went all the way down it.