Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane finished plus 242 rushing yards over expected — fifth among qualified runners in the entire league. That's the stat that survives a 7-and-10 year in Miami. Here's how the Dolphins' identity flipped from a Tyreek Hill vertical passing attack to an Achane-led ground game, why the defense became the anchor that sank the season, and the one number that explains why this team kept losing winnable games. Seven and ten, third in the AFC East, no playoffs — and five losses by one score. The Dolphins didn't get blown out of contention. They got muffed in the margins.

Let's start with the team by the numbers. Miami's offensive expected points added — the metric that captures how much each snap improved their chances of scoring — landed at minus 15.8, twenty-second in the league. The defense was worse: plus 89.6 expected points added allowed, and on defense you want that number negative, so plus 89.6 is a bottom-quarter result, twenty-sixth. Third down was where drives went to die — 35.4 percent, twenty-second percentile. And the turnover math told the story: just 19 takeaways, twenty-first in the league, against an offense that gave it away constantly. Week to week, boom-or-bust in the ugliest way — 34 on the Falcons in Week 8 and 30 on the Bills in Week 10, then 6 against Cleveland in Week 7 and 6 against Baltimore in Week 9. You never knew which team was showing up.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Tua Tagovailoa's adjusted net yards per attempt — yards per dropback after baking in touchdowns, picks, and sack yardage — came in at 5.29, twenty-ninth among qualified starters. That's the number that frames the year. The Dolphins threw for just 195.4 yards per game, total passing expected points added came in at minus 4.5 on 520 attempts, and Tagovailoa's completion percentage above expectation was minus 0.3 — slightly below baseline given his throw difficulty. The story underneath: Tyreek Hill played four games and disappeared, leaving Jaylen Waddle as the lead receiver with 64 catches for 910 yards and 6 touchdowns. Tua's line — 260 of 384 for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, 15 picks — is the line of a quarterback running an offense that lost its vertical threat in September and never replaced it. Protection told on itself too: 38 sacks on 533 dropbacks, a 7.1 percent sack rate, twelfth in the league. The passing game wasn't disastrous. It just never broke through.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where the Dolphins actually had something — 4.7 yards per carry, 120.2 rushing yards per game, and Achane's plus 242 rushing yards over expected, plus 1 yard over expected per attempt, fifth among qualified runners. He carried 238 times for 1,350 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns, with another 67 catches for 488 yards. The verdict the tape and the numbers agree on: Achane was the offense. The best illustration came in the Week 10 win over Buffalo — a 59-yard touchdown worth over five expected points that flipped a divisional game. The frustration is that rushing expected points added still landed at minus 12.4, because outside of Achane the room produced almost nothing — Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright combined for fewer than 500 yards on 140 carries. Boom-or-bust by design: Achane or nothing. When defenses sold out to stop him, the offense had no second answer.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where the Dolphins got muffed. The secondary and pass rush combined to allow 229.6 passing yards per game, 29 passing touchdowns, and a passing expected points added allowed of plus 69.7 — again, you want that number negative, so plus 69.7 is a deeply red mark, twenty-second percentile. The pass rush got home for 39 sacks, seventeenth in the league, but the pressure didn't translate — just 18 takeaways on the year. When the defense did create a turnover, it tended to be massive: Bradley Chubb's strip-sack and recovery on Bryce Young swung over five and a half expected points on a single snap. Those moments were the exception. Week to week, this defense let opposing quarterbacks dictate tempo — 41 percent third-down conversion rate allowed, and the worst stretches came in chunks: 33 to the Colts in Week 1, 45 to the Bengals in Week 16, 38 to the Patriots in Week 18. When it cracked, it cracked all the way open.

And the run defense was just as leaky. 133.5 rushing yards per game allowed, 18 rushing touchdowns surrendered, and rushing expected points added allowed of plus 19.94 — nineteenth percentile, bottom third by any measure. The per-carry number was plus 0.04 expected points added allowed per rush, meaning opposing offenses generated positive expected value on the ground almost every snap. Steady leak, not boom-or-bust. There were flashes — a strip-and-recover against Atlanta's Bijan Robinson worth over five expected points — but the season-long pattern was a front that got moved off the ball. When you can't stop the run and you can't stop the pass, you finish 7-and-10, even with a top-five rushing-yards-over-expected back in your backfield.

Welcome back to Muffed. The Miami Dolphins walked out of the 2026 draft with 13 picks and one theme General Manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and Head Coach Jeff Hafley kept circling back to: physicality and versatility. No top-ten selection, no first-round edge, no quarterback — Sullivan said the board didn't fall that way and he likes the room with Malik Willis and Quinn Ewers. What Miami got instead was a trenches-and-receivers haul with a clear identity. Bigger. Faster. Tougher.

Start up front. Miami's 2025 passing offense gave up 38 sacks and finished with minus 4.8 total passing expected points added — league-average inefficiency on a quarterback room that needed help, and pick 12 is the help. Kadyn Proctor, Alabama tackle, 21 years old, Relative Athletic Score of 8.79 — that's a zero-to-ten grade comparing combine and pro-day testing to every player at his position since 1987, and 8.79 puts Proctor in the top 12 percent of offensive tackles ever measured. Hafley was explicit that Proctor gets looks at both guard and tackle in the spring — quote, the job is to get the best five on the field, end quote. Texas guard DJ Campbell followed at pick 200, a 7.89 Relative Athletic Score for interior competition.

Then Miami absolutely smashed the pass-catching room — three receivers, two tight ends, and the Day 2 trio is where the money went. Pick 75, Texas Tech's Caleb Douglas: 53 catches, 830 yards, 7 touchdowns, fifth in the Big 12 in receiving yards, and a 9.49 Relative Athletic Score — top five percent at the position. Pick 87, Ohio State tight end Will Kacmarek — modest box score at 15 catches for 168 yards, but a predicted points added per play of plus 0.80, the college equivalent of NFL expected points added. Specialist role, high leverage. Pick 94 is the production headliner: Louisville's Chris Bell, 72 catches, 917 yards, 6 touchdowns, a total predicted points added of plus 57.07 — smashed-it territory in the ACC, fourth in the conference in receptions and 28th nationally. Day 3 piled on. Missouri's Kevin Coleman Junior at 177 — 66 catches, 732 yards in the SEC, taken specifically for explosiveness and return ability. Mississippi State tight end Seydou Traore at 180 — 35 catches, 372 yards, 5 touchdowns, a 9.42 Relative Athletic Score, and a Sullivan quote that does the work: a, quote, raw, athletic ball of clay, end quote.

Flip to defense. Miami's run defense gave up 2,269 rushing yards and a positive 19.94 rushing expected points added allowed in 2025 — real points bleeding on the ground — and the answer was three linebackers. The headliner is pick 43, Texas Tech's Jacob Rodriguez: 122 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, a 9.61 Relative Athletic Score, top four percent ever tested. Sullivan called it best player available over need, established starters be damned. Day 3 added Texas's Trey Moore at 130 with a 9.47 Relative Athletic Score, and Pittsburgh's Kyle Louis at 138 with 79 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks. Hafley's framing was the tell — quote, can he play outside backer, can he play inside backer, can you insert him in different spots on the field, end quote. Tweeners by traditional scouting. Weapons in this scheme.

The pass defense got three picks, headlined by the other first-rounder. Miami's 2025 pass defense allowed a positive 69.7 passing expected points added even with 39 sacks — a real hole — and pick 27 is the down-payment: San Diego State corner Chris Johnson, 21 years old, 47 tackles, 7 pass breakups, ninth in his conference in deflections, and a Relative Athletic Score of 9.85. Top two percent of corners ever measured. Hafley said Johnson was one of his favorite players in the class, wouldn't have been surprised to see him go earlier, and emphasized he can win at all three levels and play inside. Texas safety Michael Taaffe came at 158 — 70 tackles, a 7.85 Relative Athletic Score, tone-setter without elite ball production. The final selection, pick 238, was Iowa edge Max Llewellyn: 9 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, an 8.53 Relative Athletic Score, and a Hafley callout for, quote, toughness and rugged play style, end quote. That's the right swing that late.

Pick of the draft. Make the case for Proctor at 12 on position value. Make the case for Bell on per-snap production. The pick is Chris Johnson at 27. Cornerback is the position where athletic profile most reliably translates to NFL impact, and a 9.85 is a different stratosphere — the testing band that historically separates high-end starters from depth. Pair that with a Hafley defense built on versatility, and a three-level corner who can also play inside is the rare piece you don't have to scheme around. Youngest of the premium picks, highest athletic grade in the class, tightest value-versus-need overlap on the board. Foundational.

The biggest thing to watch in 2026 is whether the front seven can cash the check Sullivan and Hafley wrote. Three linebackers and one Day 3 edge, but no premium pass rusher on Days 1 or 2 — and that positive 69.7 passing expected points added isn't going away on vibes. The bet is that Hafley's scheme generates pressure from disguise and movement with Rodriguez, Moore, and Louis rather than from a single dominant edge. If it works, this class is a foundation. If it doesn't, Johnson is going to be asked to cover for a pass rush that didn't get the resources. Either way, Sullivan got his wired-right players, Hafley got his chess pieces — now they coach it up. That's the Dolphins 2026 draft. See you next week on Muffed.