New England Patriots

Drake Maye finished the season as the most accurate quarterback in football against expectation — plus 9.1 percent over what he was supposed to complete. Number one in the league. Here's how a second-year quarterback turned into the most efficient passer in football, how a two-headed backfield ran for over two thousand yards, and the one defensive number that explains why the Super Bowl slipped away. Fourteen and three. AFC East champs. Two seed in the AFC. Three playoff wins to get to Glendale — and then a twenty-nine to thirteen loss to Seattle in the Super Bowl. The Patriots smashed all year. They just got muffed on the biggest stage.

Let's set the table. The offense posted plus one hundred sixty point nine total expected points added — how much every snap pushed New England's scoring chances above league average — number one in football. The defense came in at minus forty five point five expected points added allowed, and remember, big negative on defense is good — that ranked eleventh. They converted forty three point six percent of their third downs, sixth in the league, and finished drives: sixty seven point five percent of their scoring drives ended in touchdowns, not field goals. And the variance read was steady. Outside of the Week One stumble against the Raiders and the Week Three loss to Pittsburgh, this team won twelve in a row, scored at least twenty four points in fifteen of seventeen games, and lost just one regular season game after October. Not a boom-or-bust roster. A floor team that kept raising its ceiling.

Now let's talk about the passing offense — the number one passing attack in the league. Plus one hundred fifty eight point three expected points added through the air on five hundred fifty one attempts, plus zero point two nine per dropback. Maye threw for forty three hundred ninety four yards and thirty one touchdowns against eight interceptions, completing seventy two percent of his throws against an expected completion percentage of sixty two point eight. Said simply — he was completing nine percent more passes than he was supposed to, every single week. Stefon Diggs was the lead target with eighty five catches for ten thirteen and four scores, the kind of veteran possession threat that lets a young quarterback play on schedule. The one wart: forty eight sacks allowed at a seven point eight percent sack rate. Protection was a soft spot — but Maye's processing covered for it most weeks. The defining throw came in Week Ten in Tampa, third quarter, Patriots fourteen Bucs seven — Maye dropped one in the bucket short right to Kyle Williams, who took it seventy two yards for the touchdown, a plus five point seven three expected points play. That's the offense in miniature: accuracy and explosive finish.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. Twenty one hundred ninety five rushing yards, one hundred twenty nine point one a game, four point four a carry, sixth in the league. But the expected points number tells the truth — minus fourteen point four on the ground for the season, nineteenth in football. Translation: a lot of yards, not always in the right spots. The two-back rotation carried it. TreVeyon Henderson took the bigger workload — one hundred eighty carries for nine hundred eleven yards, nine touchdowns, five point one a clip, and plus one hundred forty nine rushing yards over expected on the season. Boom-or-bust on the ground: eighty five explosive plays on offense, but stretches where the run game was just collecting four-yard gains on first down.

Next up, the pass defense — and this is where the season gets quietly impressive. The Patriots allowed minus thirty two point one expected points added through the air and gave up just two hundred six point six passing yards a game — sixty ninth percentile against the pass. But here's the catch: they only got home for thirty five sacks all season, twenty sixth in the league. The pass rush did not consistently win one-on-ones. What saved the unit was opportunism — nineteen total takeaways including ten interceptions, and the secondary made big plays in big spots. The one that mattered most came in Week Five in Buffalo, third quarter, Bills down three at the Patriots' own nineteen — Josh Allen tried to fit one to Khalil Shakir over the middle and Marcus Jones jumped it in the red zone, a minus three point seven two expected points swing that flipped the game. Patriots won twenty three to twenty. That's the pass defense's identity: you'll move the ball, but they'll take it from you when it matters.

And the run defense — tighter story here. They allowed one hundred two point one rushing yards a game and posted minus thirteen point five expected points added against the run, slightly better than league average, fifty sixth percentile. They gave up just eleven rushing touchdowns all season — the number that matters most. When offenses got to the red zone, the Patriots made them throw it. The front held its ground week to week with very little variance. Steady floor, low ceiling — and combined with the takeaway-heavy secondary, enough to win fourteen regular season games.

Welcome to Muffed, your New England Patriots 2026 draft recap. Nine picks for Eliot Wolf and Mike Vrabel, and the headline is loud: a tackle at 28, another tackle later, then three swings at the pass rush and secondary — including a Day 2 edge with double-digit college sacks. Trenches and pass-rush, top to bottom. Offense got the splash up front and some lottery tickets late; the defensive front and secondary got the volume. One wrinkle worth flagging: Vrabel wasn't in the building on Day 3, by design. Wolf said the time away "really needs to be time away," and the scouting staff ran the back half of the board.

Start up front, because that's where this class plants its flag. The Patriots gave up 48 sacks in 2025 and absorbed 89 quarterback hits — over five a game. You don't fix that with magic; you fix it with bodies who can move. Enter Caleb Lomu, the Utah tackle at 28, with a 9.90 Relative Athletic Score. Quick definition: Relative Athletic Score is a 0-to-10 grade comparing a prospect's combine and pro-day testing to every player at his position since 1987. A 9.90 puts Lomu in the top 1 percent of every tackle ever measured. Then at pick 196, Dametrious Crownover out of Texas A&M — 6-foot-7, 320 pounds, a 7.82 Relative Athletic Score, and Wolf openly surprised he was there: "He's played a lot of football… he's really light on his feet." Two tackles for the second straight year. Wolf flat-out said you never end up with enough.

The passing-game additions came on Day 2 and Day 3. The Patriots ran shotgun on 55 percent of their snaps in 2025, and they needed a movement piece — enter Eli Raridon, the Notre Dame tight end at 95. Raridon caught 32 balls for 482 yards, fourth among tight ends in his conference, with plus 0.57 predicted points added per play and plus 23.48 total. That's elite per-snap efficiency. Pair it with a 9.52 Relative Athletic Score — top 5 percent of tight ends ever measured — and the fit is obvious. Then at pick 234, a quarterback: Behren Morton from Texas Tech. The case is production and toughness — 2,780 yards, 22 touchdowns to 6 picks, plus 104.89 total predicted points added in the Big 12. Wolf paraphrased the pitch: live arm, smart, played through injuries, fits the offense Josh McDaniels wants to run. The 5.66 Relative Athletic Score is middle of the pack, and Wolf was honest that going from Texas Tech's spread to McDaniels' system is "night and day." Developmental swing.

The defensive haul is where this class earns its volume. The Patriots' 2025 defense generated 35 sacks — middle of the pack — and the bet to push that number up is Gabe Jacas, the Illinois edge at 55. Jacas put up 11 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss in 2025. Second in the Big Ten. Ninth nationally. That's not good production, that's outlier production. Layer on a 9.59 Relative Athletic Score — top 5 percent of defensive ends ever tested — and you've got a Day 2 swing with the production and the traits. At pick 171, Karon Prunty, a Wake Forest corner with an 8.66 Relative Athletic Score and 8 pass breakups in 2025, tied for fifth in his conference. Real ball-skills signal from a Day 3 corner. And at pick 247, the local kid: Quintayvious Hutchins, Boston College edge. The 5.15 Relative Athletic Score is muffed-the-measurables territory, but Wolf was specific — physical, long, special-teams tape, and he impressed Vrabel at the local day with his strength on the pad. Eyes-open traits pick.

Run defense got its dart at pick 212: Namdi Obiazor, the TCU linebacker — 88 tackles in 2025 and a 9.13 Relative Athletic Score, top 10 percent of linebackers ever tested. That's exactly the movement profile you want on a late-round flyer. And at pick 245, Jam Miller, the Alabama running back, with a 7.44 Relative Athletic Score — a solid athletic baseline for a backfield dart.

Pick of the draft. You can argue Lomu at 28 for positional value and historic testing. You can argue Raridon for per-snap efficiency at a premium spot. The pick is Jacas at 55. Day 2 edge rushers who finish top-10 nationally in sacks AND test in the top 5 percent athletically are the rarest combination in any draft class. Production-plus-traits overlap is what separates hits from misses at the position. Lomu is the bigger name, but tackles in the back half of round 1 are a known commodity. Jacas at 55, with this profile, is where this class makes its bones — or doesn't.

Looking ahead to 2026, the front-seven investment has to show up on Sundays. The 2025 defense was already quietly competent — minus 32.06 total passing expected points added allowed, minus 13.48 rushing — but the sack number needs to climb, and Jacas and Obiazor are the swings. On offense, Lomu and Crownover have to stabilize a line that gave up 48 sacks, full stop. Wolf admitted the receiver board fell away from them, so they're banking on undrafted free agents to fill that room — that's the soft spot to watch. But trenches and edge? They smashed the assignment.