New Orleans Saints

The Saints' leading receiver this year — Chris Olave — also threw a pass. He went zero for one with an interception. That tells you everything about New Orleans in 2025. Here's what the data says about why the offense bottomed out, what the defense quietly did right, and the one player who carried this team when nothing else worked. Six and eleven. Out of the playoffs. A quarterback room that rotated between Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler, a backfield that lost Alvin Kamara by Week 13, and a defense a lot better than the record suggests.

Let's start with the team-level picture. The Saints' offense finished at minus 93.7 total expected points added — how much the unit hurt their scoring chances every snap, all added up — ranking 27th, bottom-six territory. The defense posted minus 60.8 expected points added allowed, and on defense a big negative is a good thing — that's 10th in the league, top third. Above-average defense, offense dragging them under. Takeaways landed at 21 — 10 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries — middle of the pack. And the season was boom-or-bust in the worst way: blown out by 31 in Seattle in Week 3, blown out by 24 by the Rams in Week 9, then four straight wins from Week 14 through 17 once the schedule softened. Steady this was not.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. The headline: minus 51.2 total passing expected points added on 641 attempts — minus 0.08 per dropback, 27th in the league. Bottom-six by the metric that matters most. The sack problem is part of why: 49 sacks allowed on 671 dropbacks, a 7.3 percent sack rate. The quarterback room split with neither side moving the needle — Shough started 11 games at an adjusted net yards per attempt of 5.9 (25th among qualified starters); Rattler got nine starts at 5.2 (30th). The bright spot was Olave, who genuinely smashed — 100 catches on 156 targets for 1,163 yards and 9 touchdowns on a 29 percent target share. He was the offense. The defining throw came Week 15 against Carolina: third and 8 from their own 38, Saints down 7-3, Shough hit Olave on a deep right go route for 62 yards and a touchdown — plus 6.6 expected points added on one snap. The whole passing game in microcosm: when Olave won deep, this offense worked. When he didn't, it didn't.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where it got ugly. The Saints averaged 3.7 yards per carry, 28th in the league — 16th percentile. Total rushing expected points added of minus 50.2 on 437 attempts ranked 31st. Second-worst in football. And it wasn't a Kamara renaissance — 131 carries, 471 yards, one rushing touchdown at 3.6 a pop, with minus 95.4 rush yards over expected on the season, minus 0.7 per attempt. That's 48th among qualified runners. He played through Week 12 and was gone. The run game was a steady drag, not boom-or-bust — bad almost every single week.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where the Saints quietly had a season worth talking about. They allowed minus 24.5 expected points added through the air across 17 games — 66th percentile, comfortably above average. The pass rush was the engine: 45 sacks, 10th in the league, 72nd percentile. And the third-down stop rate was elite — opponents converted just 35 percent, 91st percentile. Top-five in football at getting off the field. The signature moment was Week 5 against the Giants, fourth quarter, Saints up 19-14: Cam Skattebo took a handoff at the 12, Bryan Bresee punched the ball out, Jordan Howden scooped it at the 14 and ran 86 yards the other way for a touchdown. Nearly 12 expected points on one snap. That play turned a one-score game into a comfortable win, and it captured the defensive identity all year — when this unit got their hands on the ball, they made it hurt.

And the run defense was the single best thing on this football team. Minus 36.3 total rushing expected points added allowed — 97th percentile, top of the league. Yards per carry allowed sat at 4.2 across 498 opponent carries, and only 12 rushing touchdowns surrendered all year. This unit consistently set the edge and forced opponents into obvious passing downs week after week. Steady, not flashy — and the reason the defense as a whole graded out as well as it did. When the offense was getting muffed and the quarterback room was a coin flip, the front seven against the run was the one thing you could count on.

Welcome back to Muffed — Saints 2026 draft recap. Mickey Loomis walked out with eight picks, a top-ten headliner, and a clear mission: get faster, get bigger at the catch point, rebuild the offense around the new quarterback. Four of eight selections went to pass-catchers. Loomis said it himself — both free agents were on offense, and 'there was just more on offense as it turned out.' This is a pass-game reset, full stop.

The 2025 Saints passing offense generated minus 50.46 expected points added with just 19 touchdowns and 49 sacks allowed in 17 games — a unit that needed a real number-one. Enter Jordyn Tyson at pick 8. The Arizona State receiver caught 61 balls for 711 yards and 8 scores in the Big 12 — that touchdown total ranked 5th in the conference — with a predicted points added of plus 0.54 per play and plus 52.67 on the season. Predicted points added is the college equivalent of NFL expected points added. Loomis said a top-ten pick 'better have the whole package,' and ran the traits: fast, twitchy, tough, stops well, and 'a lot of his catches are first downs and touchdowns.' The injury history is the asterisk, but they went deep on the medical and stayed conviction at 8. Round 3, pick 73: Georgia tight end Oscar Delp, and the athletic profile pops — a 9.86 Relative Athletic Score, top 2 percent of every tight end measured since 1987. The college line is modest at 20 catches for 261 yards, but his predicted points added per play was plus 0.54 inside the SEC. Crazy efficient on limited volume. Loomis was direct: 'we were surprised that he was available to us when we took him,' and called Delp a willing, able blocker on top of it. Round 4, pick 136, they doubled up with North Dakota State's Bryce Lance — and Lance is the athletic outlier of the class. A 9.95 Relative Athletic Score at receiver. Top half of one percent ever tested. The production was monster: 51 catches, 1,079 yards, 8 touchdowns — 2nd in his conference, 20th nationally — at plus 0.85 predicted points added per play. Loomis tempered it honestly, calling Lance a 'developmental six-three, two-hundred-pound player' who didn't play power-four football. The raw materials are absurd. They closed the receiver room in round 6 at pick 190 with LSU's Barion Brown — 53 catches for 532 yards plus return ability — and Loomis explicitly tied the pick to replacing the speed-and-return element Rasheed gave them last year.

That 2025 line gave up 49 sacks and 82 quarterback hits — almost five a game. So in round 4 at pick 132 they took Auburn guard Jeremiah Wright, a 'big people mover' Loomis said is going to 'immediately add size and power.' Developmental, yes. But mass up front isn't decorative here. It's necessary.

The 2025 run defense surrendered 2,076 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns — so the front needed bodies. The investment came at pick 42: Georgia defensive tackle Christen Miller. The line — 23 tackles, 4 for loss, 1.5 sacks — isn't gaudy, but Loomis tipped his hand: 'more than anything, Brandon has a vision for him fitting into our defense.' That's the defensive coordinator dictating the pick, not the box score. Scheme fit only works if you trust the projection.

In the secondary, two adds. Round 5, pick 172: Ohio State safety Lorenzo Styles Junior — 30 tackles, 2 pass breakups, and a 9.76 Relative Athletic Score, top 3 percent of safeties ever measured. A developmental traits bet. Round 7, pick 219: Iowa corner TJ Hall, and the production is real — 10 pass deflections led his conference and ranked 20th nationally. Loomis said Hall came back to them after the Tyrann Mathieu trade-down and 'was kind of like a no-brainer pick.' Versatile athlete, but they'll start him at one spot so they don't do him a disservice.

Pick of the draft. You can argue Tyson at 8 — top-ten receivers move franchises. You can argue Miller in round 2 on the Brandon-says-so scheme fit. The pick is Oscar Delp. Here's why: tight end was thin in this class — Loomis specifically said the strength of this draft 'wasn't' the position, which is why tight ends started flying off the board in round 4. The Saints landed a top-2-percent athlete at a premium-scarce position in round 3, and the room around him is the same room they spent three other picks rebuilding. Tyson is the engine. Delp is the multiplier — the piece that makes the whole offense run together, at a position where the league couldn't restock itself.

The 2026 question is simple: can a passing offense that posted minus 50.46 expected points added in 2025 climb to league-average with Tyson, Lance, Delp, and Brown around the new quarterback? Loomis essentially said yes — speed, size at the catch point, two offensive free agents on top. The stress test is the offensive line. One mid-round addition in Wright has to keep the quarterback upright long enough for all that speed to matter. Get it right, this class flips the roster. Get it wrong, and the fastest relay team in the NFC South runs nowhere. That's Muffed for the Saints' 2026 draft — see you next time.