Philadelphia Eagles

Seventy-four percent. That's how often the Eagles walked into the red zone and walked out with a touchdown — second in the entire league. We're going to get into how Philadelphia's offense lived on efficiency over volume, why the pass defense quietly became a top-eight unit, and the one nagging weakness that finally caught up with them in January. Eleven and six, NFC East champions, third seed in the NFC — then a 23 to 19 Wild Card loss to San Francisco that ended it before it really started. A good season. Not a great one. The data tells you exactly why.

Start with the team-level picture. Philadelphia's offense finished at plus 25.7 expected points added — a measure of how much each snap improved their scoring chances — ranking 15th, dead average. The defense was the better unit at minus 84.2 expected points added allowed, eighth-best in football (with defense, the big negative is what you want). The signature number: 43 touchdowns on 58 red-zone trips, 74.1 percent, second in the league. And the consistency was real — ten of seventeen games decided by seven points or fewer. This wasn't a boom-or-bust team. It was a grind-it-out team that scored when it mattered, defended when it had to, and lived in the margins all year.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Plus 22.9 expected points added on 534 attempts — 14th in the league, slightly above average, nothing dominant. Jalen Hurts threw for 3,224 yards, 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions across 16 games, with a completion percentage above expectation of plus 3.1, tenth among qualified starters. The efficiency was there. The volume wasn't — Philadelphia averaged just 206 passing yards per game because the offense ran through the red zone and through Hurts' legs, not through 35-attempt aerial assaults. The signature throw says it all: Week 7 in Minnesota, third quarter, second and five, Hurts hits DeVonta Smith down the middle for 79 yards, touchdown — Smith finished as the leading receiver with 77 catches for 1,008 yards. That one play added 6.6 expected points. One swing, one explosive, game flips. That was this passing offense — not constant pressure, but a handful of haymakers a week.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. Here's where the story gets uncomfortable. Philadelphia finished at minus 10.8 rushing expected points added — 16th in the league — on 4.2 yards per carry, 47th-percentile stuff, and boom-or-bust week to week (over 150 yards some games, bottled up in others). For a team built on the run, that's a step back. Saquon Barkley carried it 280 times for 1,140 yards and seven touchdowns, with plus 75.9 rush yards over expected — meaning he was creating yards the blocking wasn't giving him, ranking 31st per attempt among qualified runners. Translation: Barkley was the reason the ground game wasn't worse. The line wasn't winning at the line of scrimmage the way it did a year ago. The rushing identity that won them a championship was no longer the engine. It was the supporting act.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where Philadelphia smashed. Minus 72.4 expected points added allowed through the air — 88th-percentile, elite — with 42 sacks and just 14 passing touchdowns allowed all year. They generated 102 quarterback hits, sixth in the league, and turned pressure into takeaways. The play that sums it up: Week 2 in Kansas City, fourth quarter, Patrick Mahomes in the red zone looking for Travis Kelce, and safety Andrew Mukuba jumps the route for an interception that swung the game. Philadelphia won 20 to 17. That moment repeated all season — eight different snaps in the data set where the defense flipped expected points by six or more. The pass rush, the coverage, the ball-hawking — all of it traveled. When this team won close games, and they won a lot of close games, it was almost always because the back end made a play.

And the run defense. This is the softer side of the unit. Minus 11.8 rushing expected points added allowed — slightly better than league average, 53rd percentile, nothing more. Philadelphia gave up 125 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns on the ground, and against physical run teams they got pushed around. The pass rush masked some of it — when you're getting off the field on third down through the air, you face fewer designed runs — but the run fits weren't always clean, and explosive runs allowed showed up in the losses. Good enough to win a division. Not good enough to stop San Francisco in January. That's the honest read.

Welcome back to Muffed — your Philadelphia Eagles 2026 draft recap. Howie Roseman walked out of this weekend with eight names but really two stories: a passing-game makeover at the top of the board, and a Day 3 bin stuffed with traits bets. The headliner is USC wide receiver Makai Lemon at pick 20, with Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers right behind him in the second. Then a long wait — Roseman himself called it daunting — before the third-round tackle and a fifth-round dart at quarterback. Add a Day 3 trenches lottery ticket, two seventh-round defenders, and a developmental defensive tackle from the International Player Pathway, and the message screams: feed Jalen Hurts new toys, then go hunting for traits.

The 2025 Eagles passing offense produced just plus 23.2 expected points added across 17 games and plus 0.04 per play — middle-of-the-pack — and this draft is the bet to move that number. Lemon at 20 is the alpha-route-runner profile: 79 catches for 1,156 yards and 11 touchdowns at USC, second in the Big Ten in both yards and grabs, 11th nationally in receiving yards, with a predicted points added — the college version of NFL expected points added — of plus 0.58 per play and plus 63.67 on the season. Sirianni leaned into the separation piece — quickness in and out of the break, what he does after the catch — and Roseman pointed to a year Lemon spent buried on the depth chart playing some corner as proof of work ethic. Stowers at 54 is the more analytically delicious pick: 61 catches for 765 yards from the tight end spot, eighth in the SEC in receptions, plus 0.61 per play in predicted points added and plus 46.91 on the season — a higher per-play number than Lemon's. Pair that with a 9.44 Relative Athletic Score — the 0-to-10 grade against every combine and pro-day number at the position since 1987, putting Stowers in the top six percent of tight ends ever tested — and you've got a movable middle-of-the-field weapon. Sirianni said the two together let the offense attack deep, intermediate, middle, and outside the numbers. Then in the fifth at 178, the Eagles took North Dakota State quarterback Cole Payton — and yes, they already have three. Payton completed 72 percent for 2,719 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 4 picks, and ran for 777 yards and 13 scores, fifth in his conference. His Relative Athletic Score is 9.86, top two percent of quarterbacks ever measured. Sirianni charted him hurdling defenders four separate times. Roseman was blunt: best player on the board at an important position, same philosophy as keeping eleven offensive linemen.

The 2025 Eagles offense surrendered 35 sacks behind a unit that's getting older — so a third-round tackle and a sixth-round freak-athlete guard isn't panic, it's depth and competition. Miami tackle Markel Bell goes at 68. Then the long wait. At 207, Georgia guard Micah Morris is the athletic story: a 9.96 Relative Athletic Score at guard, top one percent of interior offensive linemen ever tested. Roseman noted Morris started every game in the SEC and the testing is through the roof — now it's about applying it.

The pass defense additions both came on the final day. The 2025 Eagles pass defense finished top five — minus 72.42 expected points added allowed, 42 sacks — so this is reinforcement, not overhaul. At 252, New Mexico edge Keyshawn James-Newby brings real production teeth: 9 sacks (first in his conference, 20th nationally), 15 tackles for loss (second in the conference, 21st nationally), on a 7.55 Relative Athletic Score. Roseman said it plainly — turn on the tape in must-pass situations, and James-Newby gets off the ball and bends the edge. One pick earlier at 244, Texas Tech safety Cole Wisniewski: 75 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 6 pass breakups. Roseman compared him to a Super Bowl-winning Eagles safety from years back — instinctive, physical, real ball skills — and acknowledged the safety room looks different than the public thinks. Make of that what you will.

The run defense pick is the most Howie pick of the weekend. With the 251st selection, the Eagles took defensive tackle Uar Bernard out of the International Player Pathway program, sight largely unseen in major college football. The hook: a 9.90 Relative Athletic Score at defensive tackle, top one percent of interior defensive linemen ever measured. Scouts flagged him after the combine, coach Jeremiah Washburn flew down to work him out personally, and the Eagles signed his IP training partner as an undrafted free agent too. Roseman called it a passion project. Translation: a multi-year developmental swing on a rare body with rare testing.

Pick of the draft is Eli Stowers. You can argue Lemon at 20 — top-15 national receiver, premium round, premium position. You can argue James-Newby as the steal. But Stowers is where the math meets the scarcity: a tight end in the top six percent of the position all-time, with a higher per-play predicted points added number than the team's first-round receiver, available in the back half of round two. The Eagles flat out do not get that combination every year. Lemon is the headliner. Stowers is the unlock.

The biggest thing to watch in 2026: can that top-five pass defense hold serve while the front office pours resources into the passing game? Two pass catchers in the top 54, no defender until the seventh round. Roseman admitted not every hole got filled, said the safety room will sort itself out, and reminded everyone there's no allocation draft. The bet is that Lemon, Stowers, and a healthier offense lift Hurts back into MVP air while the existing defensive core absorbs minimal reinforcements. If the offense pops, this class ages beautifully. If the back end of the defense cracks, the Day 3 traits bets had better hit fast.