Pittsburgh Steelers

Twenty-seven takeaways. Fourth in football. A defense that ripped the ball away nearly every other game while Aaron Rodgers, at forty-one years old, threw twenty-four touchdowns against just seven picks. Here's how the Steelers stole the AFC North as a four seed, why the offense was more middle-of-the-pack than the touchdown total suggests, and the one number on defense that explains how a ten-win team got smoked in the Wild Card. Ten and seven. Division champs. Then Houston walked into the Wild Card and ended it thirty to six. The takeaway machine ran out of takeaways at the worst possible moment.

Let's talk about the team by the numbers. Total offensive expected points added — how much every Steelers snap moved the scoreboard needle — came in at plus twenty-four, sixteenth in the league. Dead middle. The defense allowed plus nineteen point six expected points added, eighteenth, and on defense you want that number going negative — middle of the pack there too. The real separator was the turnover game: twenty-seven takeaways, fourth in football. Third down converted at forty-one percent, solidly above average. The season itself was streaky as anything — they opened three and one, dropped four of six in the middle including a ten to twenty-five muffing at the Chargers and a seven to twenty-six muffing at home to Buffalo, then ripped off four wins in five to steal the division on the final weekend against Baltimore. Boom-or-bust month to month, but the floor was high enough to win the North.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Team passing expected points added was plus sixteen point seven on five hundred and eighty-three attempts — plus zero point zero three per attempt, sixteenth in the league. League average. And that tracks with the tape: Rodgers' completion percentage of sixty-five point seven was one point three below expectation, so he wasn't elevating the offense — he was managing it. Twenty-four touchdowns to seven interceptions is the headline, and it's a real headline — that touchdown total tied for thirteenth in the league. The lead receiver was DK Metcalf: fifty-nine catches, eight hundred and fifty yards, six touchdowns over fifteen games. The signature moment came in Week 4 against Minnesota — first and ten from their own twenty, Rodgers hit Metcalf on a short middle throw and Metcalf turned it into an eighty-yard touchdown, sixty-six yards after the catch. Plus six point four expected points added on one snap. That play was the passing game in miniature — efficient veteran quarterback, one alpha receiver, the occasional bomb papering over the average-ness of everything else.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where the numbers tell a sneakier story. Team rushing expected points added came in at plus three point six on four hundred and seven carries — only plus zero point zero one per attempt, but that still ranked ninth in the league, seventy-fifth percentile. Efficient on a per-snap basis. But four point three yards per carry ranks twenty-sixth, twenty-second percentile — bottom of the league in raw efficiency. How do both things coexist? Situational running. They ran when it mattered and converted. The lead back was Jaylen Warren — two hundred and eleven carries, nine hundred and fifty-eight yards, four point five a pop, six rushing touchdowns. His rushing yards over expected was plus one hundred and eighty point six, eighth among qualified runners. He created yards the blocking didn't give him. Boom-or-bust ground game: productive in spots, but the per-carry average tells you it never truly dictated terms.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where Pittsburgh's identity lived. Forty-eight sacks — sixth in the NFL, eighty-fourth percentile. Twenty-seven takeaways including fifteen interceptions and twelve fumble recoveries, fourth in football. That's the formula. But here's the muffing — defensive expected points added allowed came in at plus nineteen point six, eighteenth, because when they didn't get the takeaway or the sack, they got picked apart. Feast-or-famine. The signature snapshot came in Week 3 against New England, fourth quarter tied at fourteen — Drake Maye dropped back, Nick Herbig got home, the ball came loose, and T.J. Watt scooped it up at the Pittsburgh thirty-eight. That's the season in one play: pressure, takeaway, field flipped. In the Wild Card against Houston, they didn't generate them — and the defense had nothing else to fall back on.

And the run defense. This one's quieter and rougher than the pass defense numbers. Rushing expected points added allowed sat right around even on the year — average — and four hundred and forty-three carries against says teams were comfortable running on them. No single linebacker or interior lineman showed up as the season-long anchor in the splash-play data the way the pass rushers did. The run defense held up enough to win ten games but never became a strength. League-average front, elite pass-rush spikes, takeaway-dependent — and when November and December turned into January, the formula stopped working.

Welcome back to Muffed. The Pittsburgh Steelers walked out of the 2026 draft with ten picks, hosted the whole thing in their own backyard, and turned in a haul that tilted hard toward offense — even if Omar Khan insists that wasn't the plan. The headliner is Max Iheanachor, the Arizona State tackle at pick 21, but this class is bigger than one name. Pittsburgh retooled the passing game on Day 2, doubled down on the offensive line, and closed with a moment you can't script — a hometown kid off the board with their final pick.

Start up front, where Khan spent his most expensive chip. The 2025 line gave up 31 sacks and 63 quarterback hits — not catastrophic, but not a unit you ignore when this kind of athletic talent is sitting there. They didn't. Iheanachor at 21 is a Relative Athletic Score monster — quick definition, Relative Athletic Score is a 0-to-10 grade comparing a player's combine and pro-day testing to every prospect at his position since 1987. Iheanachor came in at 9.87 for offensive tackle. Top 2 percent of every tackle ever tested. Mike McCarthy openly said Iheanachor took up football late and there's, quote, a lot of growth to come — the polite coaching way of saying the traits are absurd and the tape is still catching up. Then at pick 96, Pittsburgh added Iowa's Gennings Dunker, a 9.61 Relative Athletic Score at guard — top 4 percent — with McCarthy effusive about the fit. Two linemen, two elite athletic profiles.

The passing game got four picks, and this is where the class gets interesting. Pittsburgh traded up to pick 47 for Alabama receiver Germie Bernard — Khan said the trade-up speaks for how they feel about him. Bernard went 64 catches, 862 yards, 7 touchdowns in the SEC, 7th in the conference in receiving yards, with a predicted points added — the college version of NFL expected points added — of plus 0.56 per play, plus 67.84 on the season. His Relative Athletic Score was 9.18. Top 8 percent of receivers ever tested. A smashed pick on paper. At 76, they grabbed Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. The college line is modest — 103 of 159, 1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 picks, predicted points added of plus 0.25 per play — but McCarthy was unambiguous about intent. Quote, it's about training the whole room together. He called Allar a young man who can throw the ball with the best of them and made clear the Aaron Rodgers question doesn't change the plan. Quarterback room investment, not quarterback controversy. At 121, Iowa's Kaden Wetjen — Khan was blunt that Wetjen is here to fix the return game, quote, the top guy in that area in my opinion. His 6.21 Relative Athletic Score is middle of the pack at receiver, but the role is special teams first. And at 169, Indiana tight end-fullback hybrid Riley Nowakowski, a national-championship captain with a predicted points added of plus 0.58 per play on 32 catches for 387 yards. McCarthy lit up — versatility off the charts, two-back ability, four-core special teamer. A Day 3 pick with a specific job.

Flip to defense. The 2025 pass defense surrendered 30 touchdown passes and 4,437 yards through the air, so when a top 1 percent athletic corner falls to the third round, you take him. Pittsburgh did, at pick 85: Georgia's Daylen Everette, a 9.90 Relative Athletic Score — top 1 percent of every corner measured since 1987 — with real production behind it: 48 tackles and 8 pass breakups for a Georgia defense that finished 8th in the SEC in pass deflections. Then at 224, Oklahoma safety Robert Spears-Jennings — 200-plus pounds, an 8.89 Relative Athletic Score, and Khan specifically flagged the size-and-speed combination plus special teams value.

The run defense got one swing — Notre Dame defensive lineman Gabriel Rubio at pick 210. His Relative Athletic Score was 4.82, below average for an interior lineman. McCarthy didn't flinch: quote, he's a Pittsburgh Steeler defensive lineman, an outstanding fit for the 3-4, called it a no-brainer. That's the coach telling you scheme and tape outvoted the testing number.

And then the moment of the weekend. With pick 230, Pittsburgh took Navy fullback Eli Heidenreich — a Pittsburgh native — and the building came unglued. Heidenreich is a wild profile: 77 carries for 499 yards, 51 catches for 941 yards — 4th in the AAC in receiving yards as a fullback — a predicted points added of plus 0.58 per play, plus 83.51 on the season, and a 9.28 Relative Athletic Score that grades him as a receiver, not a fullback. McCarthy said they're opening the playbook, that he can align in the slot or in the backfield, and invoked Randall Cobb as a positional comp. Rushing offense pick on paper. Chess piece in practice.

Pick of the draft. You can argue Bernard — they traded up, and the SEC profile is the most polished offensive piece in the class. You can argue Everette — a top 1 percent athletic corner in the third round is the kind of value teams build secondaries around. The pick is Iheanachor. The other two are excellent additions to functioning rooms. Iheanachor is a 21st overall investment in a tackle whose ceiling — by the coaching staff's own admission — hasn't been approached yet. You don't find 9.87 athletic tackles in free agency, and the developmental runway is the whole point. Bernard and Everette are plug-in contributors. Iheanachor is the multi-year bet that reshapes the line of scrimmage if the development lands.

Looking ahead, the question isn't whether the skill talent improved — Bernard, Wetjen, Nowakowski and Heidenreich answer that. The question is whether the offensive line coalesces fast enough to make it work. McCarthy spent real time at the podium on positional flexibility up front, left side versus right side, how the rookies integrate. Two elite athletic linemen are now in the building alongside a quarterback room he says he'll coach the hell out of. A lot of new pieces, one offseason. If the front holds, this class ages beautifully. If it doesn't, all the receiver and quarterback investment in the world won't matter.