San Francisco 49ers

Fifty-point-seven percent on third down — best in the NFL across all seventeen games. Here's how San Francisco built the league's most reliable money-down offense, why a quarterback room of Brock Purdy and Mac Jones somehow stayed afloat, and the one defensive stat that turned a twelve-win team into a Divisional Round blowout. Twelve and five. Wild card berth as the six seed. And then a thirty-five-point loss in Seattle that turned a really fun regular season into a really empty January.

Start with the team-level picture. The offense finished at plus ninety-three-point-seven total expected points added — how much every snap added to their scoring chances — sixth in the league, eighty-fourth percentile. The defense gave up plus seventy-one-point-eight, and on defense you want that number negative, so positive seventy-one-point-eight means twenty-fourth, twenty-eighth percentile. That gap is the whole story. The Niners outscored people because the offense was elite on early downs and lethal on third down — not because they were stopping anybody. And this was a steady-trend team, not boom-or-bust: twenty-plus points in fourteen of seventeen games, with only the Week 4 home loss to Jacksonville and the Week 18 finale against Seattle as real offensive no-shows. Even the forty-two to twenty-six beating from the Rams in Week 10 came with twenty-six on the board.

Now let's talk about the passing offense, because this is where the season was won. Plus ninety-five-point-four total passing expected points added on six hundred and six attempts — plus zero-point-one-six per dropback, sixth in the league. Two hundred and fifty-four yards a game, thirty-three passing touchdowns, and they did it splitting the year — Purdy for nine games, Jones for eleven. Purdy's completion percentage over expected was plus five-point-one, second among qualified starters. Jones posted plus three-point-zero himself. Two different quarterbacks, both completing the ball well above what the average passer would on those throws. That's a Kyle Shanahan offense doing Kyle Shanahan things. The downside: twenty-seven sacks allowed, a four-point-three percent sack rate, twenty-ninth in the league — protection got muffed up front. But the bigger story is how third down powered everything, and one play tells it. Week 16 in Indianapolis, fourth quarter, third and nine from the Colts' nine, Niners up seven. Purdy hits Christian McCaffrey on a short left checkdown, McCaffrey walks it in — plus three-point-two-one expected points on a single snap. Third down, money down, ball in the back's hands, drive ends in seven.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, which is the inverse story. Minus eighteen-point-five total rushing expected points added on four hundred and eighty-one carries — minus zero-point-zero-four per attempt, twenty-first. Three-point-eight yards a carry, twenty-fourth, twenty-eighth percentile. One hundred and six-point-nine yards a game, but it was volume, not efficiency — steady floor, low ceiling. McCaffrey carried three hundred and eleven times for twelve hundred and two yards at three-point-nine a clip with ten rushing touchdowns. But his rushing yards over expected — how many yards he gained above what an average back would on those same carries — came in at minus one hundred and sixty-six total, minus zero-point-five per attempt. Forty-sixth among qualified runners. The volume was there. The touchdowns were there. The per-carry juice wasn't. His real value came as a receiver — one hundred and two catches, nine hundred and twenty-four yards, seven more scores. The rushing attack was a closer, not a driver.

Next up, the pass defense, and this is where the season cracked. Plus sixty-seven-point-six expected points added allowed through the air, plus zero-point-one-one per dropback — and on defense, positive is bad. Twenty-fifth percentile. Two hundred and forty-one yards a game, twenty-nine passing touchdowns. But the pass rush is the headline: twenty sacks all season. Twenty. Dead last in the NFL, thirty-second of thirty-two, third percentile. Fifty-seven quarterback hits — sixth percentile. They simply could not get to the passer, and in the modern NFL every other defensive number suffers when you can't. Fifteen total takeaways, twenty-second percentile. Deommodore Lenoir delivered the signature moment — Week 11 in Arizona, third quarter, he jumped a Jacoby Brissett throw and took it sixty-four yards the other way, a minus nine-point-two expected points swing on one snap. Plays like that papered over the structural problem during the regular season. They didn't paper over it in January.

And the run defense was the more stable side of the ball — but stable doesn't mean good. Plus four-point-two total rushing expected points added allowed, league average at plus zero-point-zero-one per carry. One hundred and eight-point-six rushing yards a game, thirteen rushing touchdowns on four hundred and sixteen attempts. Thirty-fourth percentile. A unit that held the line without ever winning the line — and paired with a pass rush that couldn't get home, you get a defense that hung around all year and then got walked through the building in the Divisional Round. Twelve wins is a great regular season. The defensive numbers are why it wasn't more.

Welcome back to Muffed. The 49ers walked into the 2026 draft without a first-round pick — that chip was already spent — so John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan opened for business at pick 33 and didn't stop moving. Eight players, five trades, and a 2027 sixth-rounder shaken loose in the shuffle. The headliner: Ole Miss wide receiver De'Zhaun Stribling at the top of round two. The flavor: defense-heavy, trait-obsessed, with six of the eight picks testing in the 90th percentile or better at their position. This was a board that hunted athletes.

A 49ers passing game that posted plus 95.69 expected points added through the air in 2025 is still navigating the Brandon Aiyuk question — and pick 33 was the answer. Stribling went 55 catches, 811 yards, 6 touchdowns at Ole Miss, with a predicted points added per play of plus 0.61 and plus 42.98 on the season. That's top-shelf separation-and-production math against the best conference in college football. Then the testing: a Relative Athletic Score of 9.57 — the 0-to-10 grade comparing combine and pro-day numbers to every player at the position since 1987 — putting him in the top 5 percent of receivers ever measured. Big body, SEC tape, elite athletic profile on day two. Sturdy bet.

The Niners' 2025 ground game finished at minus 2.03 expected points added on 462 carries — league-average inefficiency — and Shanahan's been through too many four-back seasons not to reinvest. Enter Indiana running back Kaelon Black at pick 90: 187 carries, 1,039 yards (6th in the Big Ten), 10 touchdowns, plus 17.41 predicted points added, and a 9.14 Relative Athletic Score. Shanahan's pitch was a true starter's traits — hitting the right hole, breaking tackles, getting five when it's blocked for three — with pro-day speed stapled on top.

The offensive line surrendered only 27 sacks in 2025, so day three was about developmental darts, not panic. Washington's Carver Willis at 127 brings an 8.09 Relative Athletic Score at guard — roughly 80th-percentile testing — and Shanahan said flat out they'll start him inside and let him fight for left guard. Then at 179, Kansas tackle Enrique Cruz Jr. — and this is where the profile gets loud. A 9.84 score at offensive tackle, top 2 percent ever measured. Lynch said Cruz posted the fastest 20-yard time and highest vertical of any offensive lineman in the class. Thin production, monster traits.

Here's where the class tilts. The 2025 pass defense generated only 20 sacks and surrendered plus 67.62 expected points added through the air with just 14 takeaways — nowhere near where this scheme wants to live. The Niners spent three picks rebuilding it. At 70, Texas Tech edge Romello Height: 37 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks (4th in the Big 12, 15th nationally), and an 8.83 Relative Athletic Score. At 139, Washington corner Ephesians Prysock: 48 tackles, 7 pass breakups, and a 9.74 score — top 3 percent of corners ever tested, exactly the length-and-ball-skills profile the boundary needed. At 154, Louisiana linebacker Jaden Dugger: 124 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, a 9.60 score, and an 84-and-a-half-inch wingspan Lynch couldn't stop talking about — versatile enough for MIKE, WILL, or SAM. Three defenders, three athletic scores north of 8.8. Not an accident.

The run defense allowed plus 4.15 expected points added on the ground in 2025 — break-even — but the Niners want defenders who live in the opposing backfield. Oklahoma defensive tackle Gracen Halton at pick 107 fits the brief: 33 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, an 8.46 Relative Athletic Score, and a 36-inch vertical. Lynch said they were surprised he lasted. Halton started his Oklahoma career on the edge before kicking inside, and the get-off shows up on tape.

Pick of the draft is Stribling, and the argument is scarcity. You can make a case for Height as a pure pass rusher or Prysock's length on the boundary, but pick 33 is a late-first investment in a receiver room with real uncertainty at the top of the depth chart. SEC-level efficiency plus a 9.57 athletic score is the kind of swing that becomes the foundation if Aiyuk moves on. The other premium picks fill depth on units that already had answers. Stribling fills a question.

The question that defines this class heading into 2026: does the pass defense actually transform? Three of eight picks went to that side of the ball, stacking length and athleticism at every level — Height off the edge, Prysock on the boundary, Dugger bending the geometry of the second level. A defense that managed 20 sacks and 14 takeaways across 17 games needs that infusion to mean something on Sundays. Lynch and Shanahan went trait-hunting in every round and the athletic scores back it up. Now the staff has to turn eight high-testing prospects into football players.