Washington Commanders

Let's talk Washington Commanders 2025, and there's no soft way to say this — 5 and 12, third in the NFC East, eliminated in Week 14 on a shutout in Minnesota. Twelve months earlier, this team was playing in the NFC Championship Game. Twelve months later, they became the first NFL team since the 2002 Cardinals to lose four straight games by 21 or more. The defense couldn't get off the field, Jayden Daniels couldn't stay on it, and a Week 6 Monday night collapse to the Bears — 25 to 24, botched handoff under three minutes left — kicked off an eight-game losing streak. Bright spots existed: a 41-point eruption against the Raiders, a road thumping of the Chargers, a season-closing win in Philadelphia. But the arc was a sophomore-year faceplant that cost both coordinators their jobs two days after the finale.

Now to the team-level numbers, because this is where the regression comes into focus. Washington scored 18.8 points per game and surrendered 26.5 — that ten-point gap is the whole season in one stat. Total expected points added on passing plays — how much each snap improved their scoring chances — came in at minus 3.8, while the run game was a modest plus 9.1. Treading water on offense, drowning on defense. The defensive number is brutal: plus 117 expected points added allowed in the passing game, ninth percentile league-wide — bottom four. Third downs went their way only 38 percent of the time on offense and 42 percent against them. And the gut punch — just nine takeaways all season, sixth-percentile territory, against 21 giveaways. Boom-or-bust all year: three games over 27 points, four shutout-adjacent showings of 14 or fewer, including a 0 to 31 wipeout in Minnesota.

Now let's talk about the passing offense, because this is where the season's biggest disappointment lives. Washington averaged just 195.8 passing yards per game on 19 passing touchdowns across 17 games, with passing expected points added at minus 3.8. The headline is Jayden Daniels — seven games, 1,262 yards, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and his completion percentage over expected dropped to minus 3 after a sizzling rookie year. Deebo Samuel was the one constant target at 72 catches for 727 yards and 5 scores. The sack number — 37 allowed — was actually manageable, which tells you protection wasn't the problem. The problem was who was throwing and who was catching it, week to week. Boom-or-bust: 41 on the Raiders one week, zero in Minnesota later.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense, because this was the one functional piece of Washington's season. They averaged 135.5 rushing yards per game on 27.9 carries, scored 20 rushing touchdowns, and posted rushing expected points added of plus 9.1 — 75th percentile, a top-eight ground game. The breakout was undrafted rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 805 yards on 175 carries, 8 touchdowns, and a rush-yards-over-expected of plus 252, meaning he gained 252 more yards than an average back on those same carries. His 72-yard touchdown run in Week 7 against Dallas — a third-quarter right-tackle burst that scored the moment he hit the second level — was the season's single biggest offensive play by expected points added. Steady floor: productive in good weeks and bad.

Next up, the pass defense — and listener, this is the unit that broke the season. Washington allowed 4,371 passing yards and 33 passing touchdowns, and that plus 117 expected points added allowed sits in the ninth percentile — bottom four. On defense, you want that number deeply negative. Theirs was sharply positive. Catastrophic. They generated only 26 percent pressure and sent an average of just 2.1 pass rushers — almost no blitz, almost no heat, and quarterbacks carved them up. Nine takeaways all year, sixth percentile, was the kill shot. The one bright spot was Mike Sainristil, who delivered multiple interception-return moments, including a red-zone pick of Justin Herbert in Week 5 to seal the Chargers win. Individual flashes couldn't paper over a unit that ranked dead last in yardage allowed — a 42 percent third-down conversion rate against them tells you opponents stayed on schedule all season.

And the run defense was every bit as muffed as the pass defense. Washington allowed 142.6 rushing yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry, gave up 18 rushing touchdowns, and posted rushing expected points added allowed of plus 35.6 — 16th-percentile, bottom-third league-wide. Steady-bad rather than boom-or-bust: opponents ran on them effectively almost every week, and the four 21-plus-point losses were largely the ground game and play-action bleeding Washington dry. Can't stop the run, can't generate pressure — you get exactly the season Washington just had.