Washington Commanders

Jacory Croskey-Merritt finished as a top-twenty rushing-touchdown back as a rookie — eight scores, 805 yards, on a five-and-twelve team. Here's how Washington's ground game stayed legitimately elite while the rest of the operation collapsed, what happened when Jayden Daniels went down, and the one number on defense that explains the whole losing record. Five and twelve. The Commanders missed the playoffs, seventh among NFC teams on the outside looking in. After last year's Cinderella run, this was the hangover — and the data tells you exactly where it came from.

Now the team by the numbers. Washington's offense finished at plus 5.3 in total expected points added — the cumulative measure of how much each snap helped them score — dead middle of the league, eighteenth of thirty-two. Survivable. The defense is where this team got muffed: plus 152.8 expected points added allowed, thirtieth in the league, ninth percentile. On defense you want that number deeply negative — plus 152 is catastrophic. The turnover math made it worse — just eleven takeaways all year, thirtieth in the league. Week to week, the shape was boom-or-bust on offense and consistently bad on defense. They hung 41 on the Raiders in Week 3 and 29 on the Giants in Week 15, but got shut out zero to thirty-one in Minnesota in Week 14 and gave up 44 twice — Dallas in Week 7, Detroit in Week 10. A team that could score, couldn't stop anyone, and couldn't take the ball away.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. The headline is the quarterback room. Washington finished with minus 5.3 in total passing expected points added on 510 attempts — league average, twentieth — and that number hides the real story: the Jayden Daniels injury. Daniels played roughly the first half before going down, Marcus Mariota took over, and the offense morphed from a Daniels-led run-pass option operation into a veteran-managed check-down show. Mariota's adjusted net yards per attempt landed at 6.06, twentieth among qualified starters. Here's the wrinkle — his completion percentage over expected was plus 3.3, ninth in the league, hitting 61.2 percent against an expected 57.9. Accurate on the throws he chose; just not throwing into the high-leverage windows that move expected points. The unit also absorbed 37 sacks on 567 dropbacks, a 6.5 percent sack rate, fifteenth in the league — middling protection, not the disaster you'd expect from a losing record. Deebo Samuel led the receiving room with 72 catches for 727 yards and five scores, the steady possession piece an offense needed after losing Daniels.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where Washington genuinely smashed. The Commanders ran for 134.8 yards a game on 4.7 yards a carry — fourth in the league in yards per carry, ninety-first percentile — and posted plus 4.7 in total rushing expected points added on 487 attempts, eighth in the league. Steady floor, high ceiling, week after week. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt carried it 175 times for 805 yards and eight touchdowns, plus 138.1 rush yards over expected. The signature moment came in Week 7 in Dallas: third quarter, first and ten from their own 28, Washington down 24 to 10 — Croskey-Merritt took a handoff right tackle and went 72 yards for a touchdown, a single play worth plus 5.46 in expected points. They lost the game 22 to 44 anyway. That's the season in microcosm — the run game was real, the run game was efficient, and the run game could not save them.

Next up, the pass defense. This is the wound. Washington allowed 257.1 passing yards a game, 33 passing touchdowns, and posted plus 117.1 in passing expected points added allowed — bottom of the league, ninth percentile. Steady, week-after-week leaky — not boom-or-bust, just bad. The pass rush was actually fine: 42 sacks, twelfth in the league, sixty-sixth percentile. Everything behind it was the problem. Eleven total takeaways all season, sixth percentile, meant even when the rush got home, the back end couldn't finish. Mike Sainristil was the lone bright spot with interceptions in Weeks 4, 5, and 9 — but three or four splash plays from one corner cannot drag a unit that gave up explosive throws in fifteen of seventeen games.

And the run defense. Washington allowed 142.6 rushing yards a game on 4.96 yards a carry and posted plus 35.6 in rushing expected points added allowed — again, that positive number on the defensive side is the bad direction. Sixteenth percentile, and steady-bad rather than boom-or-bust. Eighteen rushing touchdowns surrendered. It wasn't the worst unit on the roster — that's the secondary — but it offered no leverage on early downs, nothing that forced opposing offenses into the obvious passing situations where the 42-sack pass rush could've eaten. When you can't stop the run and you can't take the ball away, every opposing drive feels twelve plays long. That, more than anything, is why this season ended at five and twelve.

Welcome to Muffed, your Washington Commanders 2026 draft recap. Six picks, one headliner who defines the whole class: Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles at pick seven. After that, it's a Day 3 grab bag — a receiver in the third, an edge in the fifth, a back and a lineman in the sixth, a quarterback in the seventh. The theme: defense first, athletic upside everywhere else. Lance Newmark said the quiet part out loud — they wanted to be 'free to go after athletic, fast players wherever they might be.' The board reflects it.

Start where they started. Washington's 2025 run defense gave up 2,425 rushing yards and a plus 35.64 expected points added — the run game was actively scoring on this defense, snap after snap. The answer at pick seven: Sonny Styles, a 21-year-old off-ball linebacker with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.99. Quick definition — Relative Athletic Score is a zero-to-ten grade benchmarking combine and pro-day testing against every player at the position back to 1987. A 9.99 isn't top decile. It isn't top one percent. It is functionally the most athletic linebacker ever tested. The tape backs it: 83 tackles, 46 solo, six and a half for loss, three pass breakups. Only one sack, so he's not a blitz-artist — but as a sideline-to-sideline run-and-hit defender dropped into a run unit that bled yards, the fit is exactly what you want in the top ten. You take the outlier and build around him.

Washington's passing offense averaged 195.8 yards a game with 19 touchdowns against 21 turnovers in 2025 — middle-of-the-pack volume, below-the-line efficiency. The third-round answer at pick 71 is Clemson's Antonio Williams, a swiss-army-knife receiver: 55 catches for 604 yards and four scores, 13 carries for 78 and a touchdown, plus a 75-yard touchdown pass on his only attempt. His predicted points added — the college version of expected points added — was plus 0.45 per play, plus 37.21 total in the ACC. Genuine production. Pair it with a Relative Athletic Score of 8.55, top 15 percent of receivers ever tested, and you've got a player who can win on more than one route tree. Late in the seventh at 223, they added Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis — 3,124 yards and 20 touchdowns against just seven picks, fifth in the Big Ten in passing yards. With Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, and Sam Hartman already in the room, Newmark said Kaliakmanis 'just made sense' as a developmental arm. That's exactly what a seventh-round pick should look like.

The ground game was one of the few things working in 2025 — plus 9.11 expected points added, 20 rushing touchdowns — so pick 187 didn't have to save anyone. Enter Penn State's Kaytron Allen: 1,303 yards and 15 touchdowns, both second in the Big Ten and top 25 nationally, with predicted points added of plus 0.20 per carry and plus 45.23 total. That's Day 2 production at a Day 3 price. He just has to compete.

One offensive line pick: Michigan State's Matt Gulbin at 209. Relative Athletic Score of 3.46 at center, bottom third ever tested. Developmental interior depth, full stop.

The Commanders forced just nine takeaways in all of 2025 — barely one every other week. The fifth-round bet on that problem is Tennessee edge Joshua Josephs at 147. The college numbers are modest — 33 tackles, five for loss, two sacks — but he tested at a Relative Athletic Score of 8.56, top 15 percent of defensive ends, and Newmark spent more time on him than almost anyone. The pitch was the arm length: 'when someone has that kind of upper body range and length that it does tend to create turnovers.' Length-and-athleticism bet aimed directly at the takeaway hole.

Pick of the draft is Styles, and it isn't close. You can argue Williams on value at 71, or Allen as the steal at 187 — but a Relative Athletic Score of 9.99 doesn't have peers. It's the ceiling of the scale. Marry that to a top-ten pick spent on the unit that hemorrhaged the most expected points in 2025, and you've got alignment between the biggest hole on the roster and the biggest swing on the board. Day 3 hits would be nice. Styles becoming a cornerstone is what makes this class.

Going into 2026, the question is whether one linebacker — even a historically athletic one — can drag a run defense that allowed plus 35.64 expected points added back to respectability, and whether a secondary Newmark acknowledged didn't get touched holds up against the 33 passing touchdowns it surrendered last year. Newmark says he feels good about those rooms. The schedule will tell us if that confidence is earned. Small class. One massive swing at the top. If Styles is what the testing says he is, the Commanders smashed pick seven and the rest is gravy.