Jordan Mason — Week 1: Fifteen Carries, Forty in the Fourth

Nine oh nine left in the fourth quarter, first and 10 at the Green Bay 39, Minnesota down 22 to 17. Jordan Mason went around left end for 28 yards to the 11. The run was worth +1.7 expected points added — expected points added is what a play was worth given down, distance and field position — and 11 points of win probability, the chance of winning the game after the play against before it, the largest gain in win probability any Vikings offensive play produced all afternoon. Three plays later Aaron Jones scored from the three and Minnesota led for the first time.

The line: 15 carries, 59 yards, one touchdown, two first downs, three of the 15 successful, −3.0 expected points on the carries. Through three quarters it was nine carries for 19 yards and a longest of eight; in the fourth it was six for 40. The touchdown was one yard, and the one the game had just handed him: first and goal at the Green Bay one, four 52 left, up 25 to 22, right guard, one yard, +0.6 and 3.5 points of win probability, on the snap after Andrew Van Ginkel recovered Jordan Love's fumble at the eight and carried it to the one. 32 to 22. The first-half carries were eight for 19: −4 around left end on his first, one yard, four, four, then eight behind the right guard to open the second quarter, one, one and four. His one third-quarter carry was second and one at the Green Bay 19 with four 23 left, up the middle, no gain; Jones converted the third and one on the next snap. The other goal-line carry went nowhere, second and five at the six with seven 36 left, right guard, no gain; Jones scored on the next play that stood. He was not targeted.

The split: Mason 15, Jones 12, Carson Wentz two, Kyler Murray two, both of Murray's scrambles. Minnesota ran 15 designed runs before halftime and 13 after, against 17 pass plays and 10, and the ground game gained a hundred 10 yards. The two rushing touchdowns went to different backs, Mason from the one and Jones from the three, and Mason's 15 carries were the most on the team.

Back in June the preview made no call on Mason: the 30-ninth running back at pick one 17, the frontrunner in a committee nobody in Minnesota would declare, with the early-down split and who gets the goal-line series as the honest ballot to watch. Sunday's ballot read 15 carries to 12, one goal-line touchdown each, and 40 of Mason's 59 yards in the fourth quarter, 28 of them on the run that turned the game. One game does not declare a committee any more than a June depth chart does; it does say the lead carry count was his on the first Sunday. Minnesota is at the Bears on Sunday the twentieth. The number to watch is 15 against 12.

_Data via nflverse._