One page, updated in place. These are the reads Muffed's analysis surfaces from the full 2026 data picture — not a news feed, and not a back catalogue of takes.
As of July 28, 2026, the verified record says: Denver's 11-2 one-score season has two precedents since 2016 and both teams fell to 7-10 and 6-11 the next year; Drake Maye led all primary starters in EPA per dropback, including the pressured and blitzed snaps; Justin Jefferson still carries a top-five wide receiver price after finishing 2025 as the WR34 in Half-PPR points per game; blitzing in 2025 raised pressure rates but offenses averaged more EPA against five rushers than four; Quinshon Judkins beat the expected-yards model against the league's highest stacked-box rate; a receiver's touchdown rate barely repeats year over year while his depth of target does; and DJ Moore is the only measured player with perfect availability across the 2021–2025 seasons.
11-2 in one-score games · 62 precedents since 2016·Verified Jul 28, 2026
Teams that won at least 65 percent of their one-score games declined by about three wins the following year and improved just 11 percent of the time across 62 cases from 2016 to 2025. As of July 28, 2026, Denver also carries the league's largest Pythagorean overshoot at 3.0 wins.
1st of 32 in EPA per dropback · 0.28 on unstable snaps·Verified Jul 28, 2026
His 0.32 EPA per dropback led the league across 601 dropbacks in 2025, and on the unstable slice — pressured, blitzed, or third and fourth down — he averaged 0.28 while 18 of the 32 primary starters went negative.
WR5 price, WR34 finish · No. 9 overall on Jul 28, 2026·Verified Jul 28, 2026
He averaged 9.4 Half-PPR points per game across 17 games in 2025, yet sits ninth overall and WR5 in the July 28, 2026 FantasyPros snapshot. Every other top-15 pick finished within 11 spots of his positional price; Jefferson finished 29 spots below.
38.3% pressure vs 26.2% · 3,940 blitzes charted in 2025·Verified Jul 28, 2026
On 3,940 charted five-rusher dropbacks in 2025, pressure rate jumped to 38.3 percent from 26.2 with four rushers, yet offenses gained 0.064 EPA per dropback against the blitz versus 0.033 against four. Team blitz rate and EPA allowed were nearly uncorrelated at r = -0.09.
45.2% of carries vs 8-plus boxes · 1st of 49 qualified backs·Verified Jul 28, 2026
Eight-plus-man boxes made up 8.8 percent of NFL rushes in 2025; Judkins saw one on 45.2 percent of his 230 carries — the highest rate among 49 qualified backs — and still finished 69 rushing yards over expectation.
aDOT r = 0.898 vs TD-rate r = 0.205 · 745 season pairs·Verified Jul 28, 2026
Across 745 consecutive-season pairs from 2016 through 2025, touchdown rate per target repeats at r = 0.205, while average depth of target repeats at r = 0.898 and air-yards share at r = 0.785. Chasing last year's touchdowns is chasing the least repeatable part of the profile.
85 of 85 games, 2021–2025 · 1 of 471 measured players·Verified Jul 28, 2026
The 2021–2025 availability table requires at least three measured seasons and 20 games; Bijan Robinson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba also sit at 100 percent, but across three seasons each. Moore's streak is 85 of 85 possible games, and he carries it to Buffalo in 2026.
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