One page, updated in place. These are the reads Muffed's analysis surfaces from the full 2026 data picture — not a news feed, and not a back catalogue of takes.
Two rules from the 2016–2025 record point the same way: teams that won under 35 percent of their one-score games gained 2.44 wins on average the next year and improved 69 percent of the time across 71 cases, and teams 1.5 or more wins under their Pythagorean projection gained 2.07 and improved 68 percent of the time across 44. Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025.
Among receivers with at least 50 targets, no other 2025 receiver cleared 43.3 percent and the best previous season in the ten-year files was DJ Moore's 47.6 in 2022; Smith-Njigba turned 163 targets into 119 catches and 1,793 yards.
He averaged 21.5 Half-PPR points per game on 311 carries for 1,202 yards, 3.86 a carry, and finished 165 yards below the expected-yards model; he also took 52.1 percent of San Francisco's carries and targets inside the 10, the largest goal-line share by any player in the 2016–2025 files.
His 0.32 EPA per dropback led the league across 602 dropbacks in 2025, and on the unstable slice — pressured, blitzed, or third and fourth down — he averaged 0.28 while 18 of the 32 primary starters went negative.
He completed 62.8 percent against a 65.4 percent expectation on 502 attempts in 14 games; the one positive season in that span is 2018, at plus 1.5. The expectation is Next Gen Stats' model of each throw, so the number reads the throws he chooses as much as the ones he misses.
On 3,940 charted five-rusher dropbacks in 2025, pressure rate jumped to 38.3 percent from 26.2 with four rushers, yet offenses gained 0.064 EPA per dropback against the blitz versus 0.033 against four. Team blitz rate and EPA allowed were nearly uncorrelated at r = -0.09.
Teams that won at least 65 percent of their one-score games declined by about three wins the following year and improved just 11 percent of the time across 62 cases from 2016 to 2025. As of August 18, 2026, Denver also carries the league's largest Pythagorean overshoot at 3.0 wins.
Yards per carry went from 5.81 to 4.07 on 345 and then 280 attempts, and among qualified backs his rushing yards over expected went from 2nd of 46 to 24th of 49; eight of 2024's ten leading rushers ran for fewer yards in 2025.
His minus 6.7 over expectation in 2025 was the only mark below minus 5, with the next-worst qualifier at minus 4.9; on 173 late-and-close dropbacks he averaged 0.29 EPA per dropback, behind only Brock Purdy and Jordan Love among the 32 primary starters, and he ranked 4th of 32 on pressured snaps.
Eleven of the 14 came on targets inside the 10-yard line, where his 23 targets were the most of any player, and his 1.95 yards after the catch per reception ranked 77th of 78; he did it in 14 games in 2025.
Their turnover margin of minus 18 was the league's worst, and the 2016–2025 record says bottom-five turnover-margin teams went from an average of minus 14.1 to minus 0.7 the following year, gaining 2.7 wins on average across 42 cases.
Miami led 2022 at 59.5 percent with the next team at 45.6; in 2025 San Francisco led at 56.0 with 13 teams at 45 percent or higher, and the lowest, the Giants at 30.8, would have sat between Minnesota's 31.4 and Tennessee's 30.7 in 2022.
McCarthy completed 51.9 percent of his throws to Jefferson at an average depth of 10.1 yards, costing Minnesota 26.4 expected points on those plays; Jefferson ranked 3rd of 30 qualified receivers in weighted opportunity and 34th among receivers in Half-PPR points per game. As of September 3, 2026, Minnesota has named Kyler Murray its starter.
In 2025 FTN charted 19 interception-worthy throws and 19 quarterback-fault sacks on his 506 charted dropbacks, 3.8 percent each; only Tua Tagovailoa, at 4.8, was charted worse on interception-worthy throws.
The Texans turned 83 scoring drives into 35 touchdowns and 48 field goals, the only 2025 team with more field goals than touchdowns on scoring drives, and their offense ranked 21st in EPA per play at minus 0.013 while the defense allowed minus 0.131.
He ran for 1,621 yards in 2025, 346 above expected on 309 carries, and fumbled six times on 342 touches, the most of the 49 qualified backs and the second-worst rate among them; three of the six were lost.
San Francisco was 5-1 in one-score games and finished 1.9 wins above their Pythagorean projection of 10.1; teams that overshot Pythagorean by 1.5 or more wins lost 2.86 wins on average the next year and improved 17 percent of the time across 47 cases from 2016 to 2025.
Across 745 consecutive-season pairs from 2016 through 2025, touchdown rate per target repeats at r = 0.205, while average depth of target repeats at r = 0.898 and air-yards share at r = 0.785. Chasing last year's touchdowns is chasing the least repeatable part of the profile.
He caught 88 of 118 targets for 928 yards across 17 games in 2025, a 22.7 percent target share and 20.7 percent of Atlanta's intended air yards, at minus 0.84 yards after the catch over expected per reception, behind Zach Ertz at minus 0.77.
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