Atlanta's offense had the worst game of the season's 128 by EPA per play in Week 2 and the 4th-best in Week 4, a 45-24 win at New Orleans.
1st of 32 offenses in Week 4, 2nd in Week 3 · 2-2 after an 0-2 start·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: the Falcons ran 33 times for 207 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Bijan Robinson carried 19 times for 145 yards and 2 scores, 27.2 Half-PPR points. Michael Penix Jr. completed 15 of 20 for 223 yards, 2nd of 32 quarterbacks for the week by expected points added (EPA) per dropback at 0.507. In one week the offense climbed from 29th to 18th by EPA per play.
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CeeDee Lamb caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards at Houston, the most catches and the most targets by any player in a game this season.
1st with 498 receiving yards · 31.9% of Dallas's targets through four weeks·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: he drew 48.8% of Dallas's targets in the 34-30 win, scored once and finished with 32.8 Half-PPR points. Across the 1,032 player-games with a target this season, the next-highest marks are 14 catches and 17 targets. His 498 receiving yards lead the league, 7 ahead of Chris Olave.
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Kenneth Walker III leads the league with 537 rushing yards and 211.8 rushing yards over expected through Week 4 of 2026, 92.8 more than any other back.
Kansas City is 4-0 · 87 carries and 4 rushing touchdowns·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026 he ranks 1st of 47 qualifying backs by rushing yards over expected, with Bijan Robinson 2nd at 119.0, and averages 6.17 yards a carry. His 22 carries for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns in Kansas City's 30-27 win at Las Vegas were worth 30.4 Half-PPR points; that game and his 173 yards in Week 1 are two of the season's three biggest rushing days.
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New England's offense went from 30th of 32 by EPA per play in Week 3 to 4th in Week 4, a 29-26 win at Buffalo that handed the Bills their first loss.
Buffalo is 3-1 · Maye 22nd of 34 by EPA per dropback through four weeks·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: Drake Maye completed 22 of 37 for 269 yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception and ran 8 times for 54 yards, 26.2 Half-PPR points, the most by any quarterback this week, and ranked 5th of 32 by EPA per dropback. The Patriots are 2-2 and their offense has climbed from 28th to 23rd. FTN charting still has 8 of his 127 charted dropbacks interception-worthy, 6.3%, 2nd-highest of 29 qualifiers.
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Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns against Detroit, 38.2 Half-PPR points, the most by any offensive player in Week 4.
385 receiving yards, 6th in the league · Carolina is 2-2·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026 it is the third-highest receiving total in a game this season, behind Davante Adams's 195 and Drake London's 194, and it came on 41.0% of Carolina's targets in a 32-26 win. Bryce Young completed 29 of 41 for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns, 4th of 32 quarterbacks for the week by EPA per dropback, as the Panthers' offense ranked 2nd for the week against a Lions defense that ranks 31st on the season.
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Philadelphia's offense ranked 32nd of 32 by EPA per play in Week 3 and again in Week 4, and has fallen from 19th to 29th on the season.
Eagles 2-2 · -16.6 EPA on 58 plays against the Rams·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: in the 24-20 home loss to the Rams, Jalen Hurts completed 12 of 27 for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, took 4 sacks and ranked 27th of 32 quarterbacks for the week by EPA per dropback, while the Rams' defense ranked 1st of 32. FTN charting has Hurts blitzed on 40.5% of his charted dropbacks, 3rd-most of 29 qualifiers, at -0.281 EPA per dropback against the blitz and 0.022 without it.
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Brock Purdy ranks 1st of 34 qualifying quarterbacks by EPA per dropback through Week 4 of 2026 at 0.566, with San Francisco 4-0.
Success rate 62.3%, 1st of 34 · 122 dropbacks·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: he completed 19 of 30 for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 24-14 win over Denver, 8th of 32 quarterbacks for the week. San Francisco's offense ranks 1st by EPA per play at 0.291, their +58 point differential is the league's best, and his 11 touchdown passes are tied with Kirk Cousins for the most.
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Minnesota has blitzed on 72.5% of charted dropbacks through Week 4 of 2026, 25.1 points above any other defense, and is 4-0 with the top-ranked defense.
1st of 32 by EPA per play allowed · 70% blitz rate against Miami·Verified Oct 7, 2026
FTN charting counts 111 blitzes on 153 charted dropbacks; Washington is next at 47.4%. In the 15-10 win over Miami the Vikings blitzed on 14 of 20 dropbacks, and the Dolphins' passing game lost 12.4 expected points on 19 pass plays, -0.653 per play, the 3rd-worst of the season's 128 team passing games. Through Week 4 of 2026 Minnesota allows 12.8 points a game, the fewest in the league, and -0.184 EPA per play.
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Tampa Bay is 0-4 with all four losses by one score, while Cleveland is 3-1 with a -14 point differential through Week 4 of 2026.
Tampa Bay lost 17-14 to Green Bay · Cleveland 3-0 in one-score games·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026 the Buccaneers' defense ranks 6th of 32 by EPA per play allowed, and the Browns are 3-0 in games decided by 8 points or fewer. Across 288 team-seasons from 2016 to 2025, one-score win percentage repeated from one season to the next at r = 0.104, the least repeatable of 10 team measures, while point differential per game repeated at 0.408.
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The Chargers are 0-4 and their offense ranks 32nd of 32 by EPA per play through Week 4 of 2026.
-0.159 EPA per play on offense · 16.8 points a game, 29th·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: FTN charting marks 9 of Justin Herbert's 131 charted dropbacks interception-worthy, 6.9%, the highest rate among 29 qualifying quarterbacks, and he ranks 30th of 34 by EPA per dropback. In the 30-23 loss at Seattle he threw 2 interceptions and took 4 sacks, and the Chargers lost 3 turnovers. Their -39 point differential is 31st in the league.
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Derrick Henry's 7 rushing touchdowns through Week 4 of 2026 tie Josh Allen for the league lead, and his 17 chances inside the 10 are the most.
Baltimore is 3-1 · Kenneth Walker III next with 15 chances inside the 10·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: 6 of the 7 came from inside the 10, where he has 65.4% of Baltimore's 26 opportunities, the largest share among 30 qualifying players. In the 24-18 win over Tennessee he ran 23 times for 73 yards and a touchdown. Allen's 7 came on 33 carries; Henry has 374 rushing yards on 89.
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Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards against Jacksonville, the most passing yards in any game this season, and Cincinnati still lost 22-17.
Burrow 15th of 34 by EPA per dropback through four weeks · Bengals 2-2·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026: he completed 39 of 54 with 1 touchdown pass, 2 interceptions and a rushing touchdown, 14th of 32 quarterbacks for the week by EPA per dropback. Jared Goff's 412 at Carolina was next. Jacksonville is 3-1 with a +51 point differential, 2nd in the league, and an offense ranked 4th by EPA per play.
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From Week 3 to Week 4, receivers' target share repeated at r = 0.37 and running backs' carry share at 0.69, while team defense repeated at 0.22.
2025 offense tracked Week 4 at 0.22 · 2026's first three weeks at 0.21·Verified Oct 7, 2026
Through Week 4 of 2026, across the 109 receivers and tight ends with at least 3 targets in Week 3 and the 57 backs with at least 3 carries in Week 3, all of whom played in Week 4. Team offense repeated from Week 3 to Week 4 at 0.43, after 0.05 from Week 2 to Week 3. On defense, 2025 tracked Week 4 at 0.06 and the first three weeks of 2026 at 0.1. Pearson correlations, not forecasts.
What stickiness means
Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games in 2024 and 1-9 in them in 2025 — a 6-11 team with a Pythagorean projection of 9.5 wins.
11-0 to 1-9 in one-score games · 3.5 wins under Pythagorean·Verified Oct 3, 2026
Two rules from the 2016–2025 record point the same way: teams that won under 35 percent of their one-score games gained 2.44 wins on average the next year and improved 69 percent of the time across 71 cases, and teams 1.5 or more wins under their Pythagorean projection gained 2.07 and improved 68 percent of the time across 44. Patrick Mahomes played 14 games in 2025.
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Blitzing bought pressure but not points in 2025 — offenses averaged more EPA per dropback against five rushers than against four.
Sacks on 7.4% of five-rusher dropbacks, 6.0% on four·Verified Sep 30, 2026
On 3,940 charted five-rusher dropbacks in 2025, pressure rate jumped to 38.3 percent from 26.2 with four rushers, yet offenses gained 0.064 EPA per dropback against the blitz versus 0.033 against four. Team blitz rate and EPA allowed were nearly uncorrelated at r = -0.09.
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Denver won 11 one-score games in 2025 — the only two teams to do that since 2016 fell to 7-10 and 6-11 the next season.
11-2 in one-score games · median next-year decline of 3.19 wins·Verified Oct 2, 2026
Teams that won at least 65 percent of their one-score games declined by about three wins the following year and improved just 11 percent of the time across 62 cases from 2016 to 2025. As of August 18, 2026, Denver also carries the league's largest Pythagorean overshoot at 3.0 wins.
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A receiver's touchdown rate barely repeats from season to season; his depth of target is the stickiest receiving number in the 2016–2025 record.
aDOT explains 81% of the next season's variance; touchdown rate explains 4%·Verified Sep 30, 2026
Across 745 consecutive-season pairs from 2016 through 2025, touchdown rate per target repeats at r = 0.205, while average depth of target repeats at r = 0.898 and air-yards share at r = 0.785. Chasing last year's touchdowns is chasing the least repeatable part of the profile.
What stickiness means
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