Giants 27, Texans 21 — Week 7: Four Rushing Touchdowns

New York won 27-21 in overtime at Houston, and every touchdown came on the ground: Tyrone Tracy Jr. from 2, Jameis Winston from 1, Cam Skattebo from 16 and Devin Singletary from 30 to end it. The Giants led 14-6 late in the first half and 21-14 with 57 seconds left in regulation, and gave up the tying score both times. They missed field goals from 56 and 44. 11 drives produced four touchdowns, three three-and-outs and no turnovers, after three interceptions a week earlier.

The run game Smashed, and expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, says by how much. Its 34 rush plays were worth +10.2 EPA, +0.30 a play against -0.11 through Week 6, for 188 yards, and half of them were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Skattebo ran 17 times for 124 yards and a touchdown, Singletary 5 for 41, and Winston, used only in short yardage, 4 times for 4 yards with a touchdown and a fourth-down conversion. The go-ahead drive started at the Giants 20, tied 14-14 with 2:13 left in the third, and went 80 yards in 14 plays. Skattebo converted third and 1 with a 19-yard run around the right end and third and 1 again with 2 up the middle; Winston pushed for 1 on fourth and 1 at the Houston 32, +1.68 EPA. On first and 10 at the 16, Skattebo ran through the right side for the touchdown, +2.12 EPA and 18.9 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win, for 21-14.

The passing game hit big without hitting often, and success rate shows the trade: only 30% of its 30 pass plays succeeded, yet they were worth +5.4 EPA, +0.18 a play against +0.04 through Week 6. J.J. McCarthy, in his first start of the season, completed 20 of 27 for 252 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, and was sacked three times. Malik Nabers caught 7 of 9 targets for 111 yards. His 42-yarder deep right on the first drive reached the Houston 2, and Tracy scored on the next snap. Malachi Fields caught 4 of 5 for 83, three of them for first downs on second and 17, third and 4 and third and 9. Thomas Fidone II's 29-yard catch set up Winston's touchdown.

The pass defense held Houston under its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: the Texans' 29 pass plays were worth -0.05 a play, against +0.00 allowed through Week 6. On defense a negative number is good. C.J. Stroud completed 17 of 28 for 153 yards and two touchdowns, and only 34.5% of the pass plays succeeded. Nico Collins caught 2 of 5 targets for 6 yards. On Houston's first drive the Giants challenged a Xavier Hutchinson catch on third and 5 at their 40 and won it, and the Texans settled for a 58-yard field goal. The breakdowns came together late in the half: up 14-6, Andru Phillips was flagged for a 21-yard pass interference on third and 4, Tank Dell caught a 43-yarder on first and 20, and Ar'Darius Washington's 11-yard interference moved the ball to the 19 before Marvin Harrison Jr.'s 6-yard touchdown and a two-point conversion tied it.

The run defense beat its standard, and total EPA allowed gives the size: Houston's 25 rush plays were worth -3.0, -0.12 a play against +0.04 allowed through Week 6, for 84 yards. Here, too, negative is good. Woody Marks ran 19 times for 66 yards. Kayvon Thibodeaux stopped him for no gain on third and 1 at the Houston 42 in the third, and Washington stopped him at the 3 with a minute left in regulation, a snap before the tying touchdown.

The game turned in overtime, after Houston went three-and-out from its own 35. Charlie Jones returned the punt 9 yards to the Giants 19. Nabers caught 9 on first down. On second and 1 at the 28, Skattebo went up the middle for 42 yards to the Houston 30, +2.43 EPA and 28.8 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game, and Singletary ran 30 yards up the middle on the next snap. The offense scored on 3 of its 4 red-zone snaps and converted 5 of 12 third downs; the defense stopped 9 of Houston's 12.

Last week's notebook asked whether the interception-worthy rate would come back down and whether play-action would return. Both measures wait for the charting. The result is in: no interceptions in 27 throws, after three against New Orleans. The one to watch next: whether a run game at +0.30 a play here, after -0.11 through Week 6, was a turn or a one-week spike.

That's your Giants, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Giants on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._