Vikings 16, Colts 10 — Week 7: Murray's 35-Yard Scramble

Minnesota beat Indianapolis 16-10 at home on Sunday, its first game back from the bye, to go 6-0. The Vikings trailed 7-0 and 10-6 at halftime, took the lead two snaps into the fourth quarter, and held it because the Colts missed from 56 and 48 and threw an interception on their last drive. Eight drives produced a touchdown and three field goals, with a blocked field goal, a turnover on downs and no turnovers.

The passing game edged past its own standard. Expected points added (EPA) measures what a play is worth given down, distance and field position, against what the situation was already worth. Minnesota's 27 pass plays were worth -0.07 EPA, -0.003 a play against -0.093 through its first five games, and 40.7% were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Kyler Murray completed 14 of 24 for 150 yards and a touchdown without an interception, and was sacked three times. Justin Jefferson caught 4 of 7 targets for 44, including a 21-yarder on second and 10 from the Minnesota 4. T.J. Hockenson caught 4 of 5 for 35 and the touchdown.

The run game went backward, and success rate says how often: 33.3% of its 27 rush plays succeeded, for 138 yards and -4.28 EPA, -0.159 a play against -0.114 through Week 5. Murray's two scrambles gained 40 of those yards; the 25 designed runs gained 98 and were worth -6.87 EPA. The first drive set the tone. Myles Price's 46-yard kickoff return started it at the Indianapolis 47, Aaron Jones was stopped for no gain on third and 1 at the 38, then lost a yard on fourth and 1, -3.92 EPA. Jones ran 8 times for 26 and was hurt on his 17-yard run in the fourth quarter. Jordan Mason ran 15 times for 68.

The pass defense Smashed, and the sack count leads it: four sacks on 27 Indianapolis dropbacks, after 17 on 179 in the first five games. Those 26 pass plays were worth -7.77 EPA, -0.299 a play against -0.245 allowed through Week 5; on defense, a negative number is good. Daniel Jones completed 13 of 22 for 108 yards, no touchdowns and an interception, and his longest completion went 13 yards. Blake Cashman had two sacks and four passes defensed. Midway through the third quarter, up 10-6, Jones was sacked on consecutive snaps, by Eric Wilson and Jalen Redmond for 10 and by Cashman for 13, leaving third and 33 at his own 9. The play that ended it came with 1:15 left, Minnesota up 16-10: first and 10 at the Indianapolis 44, no huddle, Jones threw short right for Will Mallory, and Harrison Smith intercepted and returned it 15 yards to the Indianapolis 41. That snap cost the Colts 4.4 EPA and 17.1 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win.

The run defense slipped well below its standard, and EPA per play allowed measures it: Indianapolis's 33 rush plays were worth +0.035 a play, against -0.154 allowed through Week 5, and 45.5% succeeded, for 154 yards. One run did most of the damage. On the Colts' first drive, first and 10 at the Minnesota 38, Jonathan Taylor went 38 yards for the touchdown. His other 17 carries gained 57. The stop that mattered came down the stretch: up 13-10 with 5:10 left, third and 2 at the Minnesota 30, Kyle Van Noy and Josh Metellus held Seth McGowan to no gain.

The game turned on the first snap of the fourth quarter. Down 10-6, third and 8 at the Indianapolis 40, Murray scrambled right and was pushed out at the 5 after 35 yards: +3.8 EPA and 18.9 points of win probability, the biggest swing of the game. Hockenson caught a 5-yard touchdown on the next snap for 13-10. Will Reichard's 59-yard try was blocked at 8:38, and the Colts drove to the 30 before Spencer Shrader's 48-yarder went wide right, worth 17.6 points of win probability to Minnesota. Jauan Jennings's 20-yard catch on second and 8 set up Reichard's 52-yarder for 16-10 with 1:44 left, and Smith's interception followed.

The Week 5 notebook asked about ball security inside the 20 and whether the defense would keep winning with a lighter rush. No turnovers this time; the one fumble inside the 20, Aaron Jones's on a catch at the Indianapolis 11, went out of bounds. Five red-zone snaps produced one touchdown. The rush question waits for the charting. The one to watch next: a run game at -0.159 a play here, whose designed runs lost 6.87 expected points on 25 carries, and whether Aaron Jones, hurt on his 17-yard run, is back to carry it.

That's your Vikings, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Vikings on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._