Rams 35, Raiders 21 — Week 7: Four Straight Touchdown Drives

Los Angeles won 35-21 at Las Vegas, and built the margin before halftime. After a three-and-out to open, the Rams scored touchdowns on four straight possessions, the last with 1:25 left in the second quarter, for a 28-3 lead. Two second-half giveaways let the Raiders back within 28-18 early in the fourth, and a 12-play, 70-yard drive that ended on Blake Corum's 4-yard touchdown closed it. 11 drives produced 5 touchdowns, 2 turnovers and 2 three-and-outs, with no field goals.

The passing game was efficient more than explosive, and success rate leads the case: 63.3% of its 30 pass plays were successful plays, meaning they gained what the situation asked for. Expected points added (EPA), what a play is worth given down, distance and field position against what the situation was already worth, had them at +5.2, +0.17 a play against +0.08 through Week 6. Matthew Stafford completed 23 of 29 for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception, and was sacked once. Puka Nacua caught 8 of 10 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown, Colby Parkinson 5 of 6 for 48, and Davis Allen scored from 3 and 5 yards. Nacua's touchdown came up 14-3 with 4:20 left in the half: second and 8 at the Las Vegas 11, a short throw to the left, and he was in, +2.55 EPA. The giveaway came on the first Rams snap of the fourth, up 28-12: Nakobe Dean intercepted a short throw for Parkinson at the Rams 34, -5.44 EPA, and Las Vegas scored on its fifth snap from there.

The run game Smashed, and EPA per play shows how far above its standard: 35 rush plays were worth +6.1 EPA, +0.17 a play against -0.02 through Week 6, for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 54.3% successful. Corum ran 17 times for 93 yards and Kyren Williams 16 times for 99. The run of the night came up 21-3 with 1:25 left in the half: second and 7 at the Las Vegas 17, Williams went around left end and scored, +2.8 EPA and 28-3 after the extra point. Corum's 43-yard touchdown in the third came back on Steve Avila's face-mask penalty, and Williams lost a fumble at his own 30 on the first snap of a drive earlier in that quarter, -4.9 EPA. After Konata Mumpfield recovered the onside kick with 4:11 left, Williams carried five straight times for 23 yards and Stafford knelt it out.

The pass defense kept Las Vegas well below its passing standard while falling a little short of its own, and EPA per play allowed opens it: the Raiders' 47 pass plays were worth -2.1 EPA, -0.045 a play against -0.08 allowed through Week 6. On defense a negative number is good, and this was a little less good than usual. Kirk Cousins completed 26 of 44 for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. Braden Fiske and Byron Young sacked him on back-to-back snaps in the fourth. The defense stopped 11 of 14 third downs and three fourth downs: Emmanuel Forbes was on the incompletion for Cody White on fourth and 3 at the Rams 48, a fourth and 2 at the 13 fell incomplete, and the Rams' challenge overturned Jalen Nailor's 16-yard catch on fourth and 5 at the 25. Tre Tucker's 41-yard catch and 37-yard touchdown came on consecutive throws late in the third.

The run defense Smashed, and success rate allowed tells it: only 23.5% of the Raiders' 17 rush plays succeeded, for 48 yards. They were worth -6.7 EPA, -0.40 a play against -0.01 allowed through Week 6; here a negative number is good, and this was far better than usual. Ashton Jeanty ran 8 times for 15 yards. Mike Washington Jr.'s 21-yarder to the Rams 14 in the first quarter was the only run longer than 8 yards, and two snaps later Omar Speights dropped Jeanty for a 5-yard loss at the 12, -1.5 EPA; Las Vegas kicked a field goal.

The game turned on the drive that started the run. Up 7-3 with 10 seconds left in the first quarter, third and 5 at his own 25, Stafford threw short over the middle to Nacua for 11 yards, +1.84 EPA and 5.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. That drive went 80 yards in 12 plays and ended on Allen's 5-yard touchdown. Las Vegas went three-and-out, and the Rams went 81 yards for 21-3.

Last week's notebook asked whether a passing game at -0.16 a play would get the sacks and drops off its ledger, and whether a defense that allowed no red-zone touchdowns would get more help from its offense. Stafford was sacked once and the passing game came in at +0.17 a play; the drops wait for the charting. The help arrived: 5 touchdowns on 16 red-zone snaps, while the defense allowed 1 touchdown on 13. The one to watch next: ball security, after giveaways on two of the first four possessions after halftime, and whether a run game at +0.17 a play, against -0.02 through Week 6, keeps carrying the offense.

That's your Rams, every game, by the numbers. Muffed does the same deep dive for all 32 teams. Follow the Rams on Muffed and next week's episode is waiting the moment it's out. No theater. Just the football.

_Data via nflverse._