2026 season · Running backs

Rushing Yards Over Expected Leaders

Through Week 7

Rushing Yards Over Expected — 2026 NFL leaders, updated Oct 25, 2026. Kenneth Walker III (KC) led the league in rushing yards over expected at 277.4, ahead of 38 other qualifying players. Based on verified 2026 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through Week 7 of the 2026 season.

Rushing yards over expected asks a simple question: given the blocking, the box count, and where the defenders actually were at the handoff, how many yards should this carry have gained — and how many did the back get? A positive number is yardage the runner created that the play did not give him. It separates backs who are good from backs who are behind a good line.

Rushing Yards Over Expected, 2026 NFL season
#PlayerΔ WKGAttYdsRYOERYOE/AttTDRead
1Kenneth Walker IIIKCNo change5106665277.42.696Read
2Bijan RobinsonATLNo change6111641170.51.624Read
3Jaylen WarrenPITNo change684460113.01.401Read
4James CookBUFNo change; did not play this week6117627105.60.936Read
5Chuba HubbardCARNo change58942686.40.984Read
6Kyle MonangaiCHINo change76032466.41.173Read
7Bucky IrvingTBNo change69645260.80.652Read
8Braelon AllenNYJNo change67431454.40.742Read
9Jahmyr GibbsDETNo change510550453.00.527Read
10Kyren WilliamsLARUp 1 place, from 1168039338.80.504Read
11Ollie Gordon IIMIAUp 1 place, from 1254723633.40.713
12Christian McCaffreySFUp 2 places, from 1467735016.90.227Read
13Tony PollardTENUp 2 places, from 1568734914.80.171Read
14Rhamondre StevensonNEDown 1 place, from 1377728513.80.182Read
15Derrick HenryBALUp 1 place, from 16613053410.50.097Read
16Bhayshul TutenJAXUp 1 place, from 17; did not play this week6943887.60.082Read
17Blake CorumLARUp 2 places, from 196472230.60.011Read
18TreVeyon HendersonNENo change752203-0.00.001Read
19Brian RobinsonATLUp 1 place, from 20653211-3.5-0.074Read
20Breece HallNYJUp 2 places, from 22651163-7.7-0.151Read
21Javonte WilliamsDALUp 2 places, from 23685317-9.4-0.117Read
22Jonathan TaylorINDUp 2 places, from 246122492-19.4-0.167Read
23David MontgomeryHOUUp 2 places, from 25652138-22.1-0.432Read
24Woody MarksHOUUp 2 places, from 26658205-25.2-0.462Read
25Jeremiyah LoveARIUp 2 places, from 27667245-26.3-0.391Read
26Tyler AllgeierARIUp 2 places, from 28653157-28.0-0.531Read
27Jacory Croskey-MerrittWASUp 2 places, from 29; did not play this week667239-29.7-0.452Read
28Kaelon BlackSFUp 2 places, from 30645170-30.1-0.690
29Ashton JeantyLVUp 2 places, from 31698313-31.1-0.321Read
30Quinshon JudkinsCLEUp 2 places, from 32673221-34.6-0.481Read
31Aaron JonesMINUp 2 places, from 33597410-38.0-0.402Read
32Omarion HamptonLACUp 4 places, from 36; did not play this week680289-41.2-0.523Read
33Cam SkatteboNYGUp 4 places, from 37681294-43.9-0.541Read
34Kendre MillerNOUp 4 places, from 38649153-46.8-0.952
35D'Andre SwiftCHIDown 1 place, from 347116476-48.6-0.447Read
36Chase BrownCINUp 3 places, from 39571246-49.2-0.701Read
37Emanuel WilsonSEAUp 3 places, from 40687303-70.0-0.812Read
38J.K. DobbinsDENUp 3 places, from 41681270-71.6-0.902Read
39MarShawn LloydGBUp 3 places, from 42648122-74.6-1.552Read

New to this stat? What rushing yards over expected means.

The read — Week 6

Kenneth Walker III is still first at +277.4 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), the yards a back gains beyond what the play's setup predicted, on 106 carries through six weeks. He added +65.6 on 19 carries for 128 yards and two touchdowns in a 22-6 win over the Chargers, the week's biggest total among backs ranked both weeks, and Bijan Robinson, still second at +170.5, now trails him by 107.0. James Cook is still fourth after +17.2 on 22 carries for 95 yards against the Raiders, and Chuba Hubbard went from sixth to fifth on 28 carries for 120 yards against the Eagles. Braelon Allen went from 11th to eighth on +17.5 in 17 carries against the Patriots, and Kyren Williams from ninth to 11th after -2.1 on 10 carries against the Cardinals. D'Andre Swift had the week's worst total among those backs, -35.4 on 16 carries for 44 yards against the Falcons despite two touchdowns, and went from 22nd to 34th; Bucky Irving went from fifth to seventh on -24.4 in 19 carries against the Steelers, and Woody Marks from 20th to 26th on -24.3 against the Jaguars. The floor is 36 carries: 42 backs clear it, Kendre Miller appears for the first time, Rachaad White and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are back, and De'Von Achane, Travis Etienne and Keaton Mitchell no longer qualify. 23 of the 42 are below zero, and nine of last week's top ten are still in it. Walker's 107.0 lead is bigger than the 104.0 between Robinson and Kyle Monangai in sixth.

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Earlier weeks on this board — 2026(4 weeks)

Week 5

Kenneth Walker is still first at +211.8 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), the yards a back gains beyond what the play's setup predicted, on 87 carries through five weeks; the Chiefs were on bye. Bijan Robinson is still second at +161.2 after +42.2 on 17 carries against the Ravens, and Jaylen Warren went from fifth to third on +49.8 in 15 carries for 101 yards against the Colts. Bucky Irving had the week's biggest total, +88.0 on 21 carries for 165 yards against the Cowboys on Thursday night, which took him from 23rd to fifth. Jahmyr Gibbs went from 16th to eighth on +49.0 in 25 carries for 151 yards against the Cardinals, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt from 46th to 34th on +39.9 in 11 carries against the Giants. Omarion Hampton had the week's worst total, -31.4 on 14 carries against the Broncos, and went from 25th to 36th; Emanuel Wilson's -28.6 on 20 carries against the 49ers left him 39th. The floor is 30 carries now: 42 backs clear it, Jadarian Price, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Tank Bigsby and Alvin Kamara no longer qualify, and 23 of the 42 are below zero. Eight of last week's top ten are still in it. Walker leads Robinson by 50.6, and one game moved Irving 18 places.

Week 4

Kenneth Walker is still first at +211.8 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), the yards a back gains beyond what the play's setup predicted, on 87 carries through four weeks. His +70.6 on 22 carries for 177 yards against the Raiders was the week's biggest total among backs ranked both weeks. Bijan Robinson went from third to second on Monday night, +54.2 on 19 carries for 145 yards against the Saints, and Chuba Hubbard went from 11th to fourth on +55.5 in 20 carries against the Lions. Ollie Gordon II went from 41st to 12th on +36.2 in nine carries against the Vikings. Cam Skattebo had the week's worst total among backs ranked both weeks, -35.9 on 18 carries against the Cardinals, and went from 20th to 45th; Jahmyr Gibbs went from eighth to 17th after -26.8 on 15 carries against the Panthers. The floor is 24 carries now: Mike Washington Jr., Keaton Mitchell and Tank Bigsby appear for the first time, and Rachaad White no longer qualifies. 26 of the 47 backs are below zero, and seven of last week's top ten are still in it. Walker leads Robinson by 92.8; below them, one game moved Gordon 29 places and Skattebo 25.

Week 3

Kenneth Walker III is still first through three weeks at plus 141.2 rushing yards over expected, and his plus 101.3 from Week 1 is still the largest single game any back on this board has had through three weeks. Bijan Robinson went from 36th to third on Thursday night: 194 yards on 29 carries against the Packers, plus 77.5 over expected, the week's biggest total. Jaylen Warren went from 20th to fourth on plus 57.4 in 17 carries against the Bengals, and Kyren Williams is still fifth after plus 33.6 on 15 carries against the Broncos. Jonathan Taylor, 15th a week ago, is 43rd after the week's worst total among backs ranked both weeks, minus 39.3 on 23 carries against the Texans. The floor is 18 carries now: 45 backs clear it, four appear for the first time and two no longer qualify. 25 of the 45 are below zero, and seven of last week's top ten are still in it. Warren is fourth on 38 carries; Walker has 65, and a three-game order is still mostly who had one big game.

Week 2

Kenneth Walker III is still first through two weeks at plus 125.6 rushing yards over expected, and his plus 101.3 in Week 1 is still the largest single game any back on this board has had through two weeks. James Cook had the big one, 135 yards on 21 carries and plus 49.5 over expected, which took him from 13th to third. Monday night against the Giants put two Rams into the top five: Kyren Williams went from 28th to fifth on 12 carries for 85 yards, plus 34.1, and Blake Corum from 20th to fourth. D'Andre Swift, fourth a week ago, is 18th after the worst game of the week among the backs ranked both weeks, minus 19.2 on 16 carries. The board grew from 34 backs to 43 and nobody left; TreVeyon Henderson appears at seventh. 20 of the 43 sit below zero, and five of last week's top ten are still in it. A two-game order is a list of who had one good Sunday, and it will not survive October.

Week 7 — the single game

Rushing Yards Over Expected for Week 7 alone, not season to date.

Rushing Yards Over Expected, Week 7 single game
#PlayerAttYdsRYOERYOE/AttTD
1TreVeyon HendersonNE · RB39-2.5-0.830
2D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB2278-9.1-0.411
3Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB622-12.2-2.030

Choosing between two of these players?

Both men's 2025 production side by side, and which of them rests on inputs that historically repeat.

All comparisons →

More leaderboards

Follow Rushing Yards Over Expected. When this board moves, you'll know — what changed, with our read on it.

One email a week, in season. Free, unsubscribe anytime.

Use Muffed in your AI

Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.

Add to Claude · Set up in ChatGPT · How it works →