Completion Percentage Over Expected Leaders
Completion Percentage Over Expected — 2026 NFL leaders, updated Oct 24, 2026. C.J. Stroud (HOU) led the league in completion percentage over expected at +7.7, ahead of 32 other qualifying players. Based on verified 2026 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through Week 7 of the 2026 season.
Raw completion percentage rewards a quarterback for throwing short. Completion percentage over expected does not: it models how likely each individual throw was to be completed given depth, pressure and receiver separation, then measures the passer against that. A plus number means he is completing throws other quarterbacks would miss.
| # | Player | Δ WK | G | Att | Comp% | xComp% | CPOE | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Stroud | No change | 6 | 219 | 65.3% | 57.6% | +7.7 | Read |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | No change | 6 | 96 | 70.8% | 63.7% | +7.1 | Read |
| 3 | Geno Smith | Up 1 place, from 4 | 6 | 177 | 68.9% | 62.9% | +6.1 | Read |
| 4 | Jacoby Brissett | Up 1 place, from 5 | 6 | 234 | 66.7% | 60.8% | +5.9 | Read |
| 5 | Caleb Williams | Down 2 places, from 3 | 7 | 124 | 71.0% | 65.2% | +5.8 | Read |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | No change | 6 | 171 | 69.6% | 64.5% | +5.1 | Read |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | No change | 5 | 189 | 71.4% | 66.7% | +4.7 | Read |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | No change | 5 | 101 | 68.3% | 64.5% | +3.8 | Read |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence | No change; did not play this week | 6 | 184 | 65.2% | 61.6% | +3.6 | Read |
| 10 | Drake Maye | Up 2 places, from 12 | 7 | 214 | 65.9% | 62.3% | +3.6 | Read |
| 11 | Jayden Daniels | Down 1 place, from 10; did not play this week | 6 | 116 | 64.7% | 61.2% | +3.5 | Read |
| 12 | Sam Darnold | Down 1 place, from 11 | 6 | 149 | 60.4% | 57.7% | +2.7 | Read |
| 13 | Kirk Cousins | No change | 6 | 213 | 63.4% | 60.9% | +2.5 | Read |
| 14 | Josh Allen | No change; did not play this week | 6 | 171 | 66.7% | 64.3% | +2.4 | Read |
| 15 | Bryce Young | No change | 5 | 201 | 60.2% | 58.1% | +2.1 | Read |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | No change | 6 | 249 | 65.9% | 63.9% | +1.9 | Read |
| 17 | Dak Prescott | No change | 6 | 246 | 66.3% | 65.0% | +1.2 | Read |
| 18 | Jared Goff | No change | 5 | 191 | 67.0% | 66.1% | +0.9 | Read |
| 19 | Tyler Shough | No change | 6 | 235 | 65.1% | 64.3% | +0.8 | Read |
| 20 | Patrick Mahomes | No change | 5 | 158 | 66.5% | 66.3% | +0.2 | Read |
| 21 | Baker Mayfield | No change | 6 | 96 | 63.5% | 63.4% | +0.1 | Read |
| 22 | Michael Penix Jr. | No change | 6 | 110 | 64.5% | 64.6% | -0.0 | Read |
| 23 | Malik Willis | No change | 5 | 130 | 56.1% | 58.0% | -1.8 | Read |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | Up 1 place, from 25 | 6 | 233 | 61.4% | 63.5% | -2.1 | Read |
| 25 | Jalen Hurts | Up 1 place, from 26 | 6 | 154 | 57.8% | 60.2% | -2.4 | Read |
| 26 | Daniel Jones | Up 1 place, from 27 | 6 | 218 | 59.6% | 62.3% | -2.6 | Read |
| 27 | Cam Ward | Up 1 place, from 28 | 6 | 177 | 61.6% | 64.7% | -3.1 | Read |
| 28 | Justin Herbert | Up 1 place, from 29; did not play this week | 6 | 180 | 59.4% | 62.9% | -3.5 | Read |
| 29 | Jordan Love | Up 1 place, from 30 | 6 | 226 | 59.7% | 63.5% | -3.8 | Read |
| 30 | Bo Nix | Up 1 place, from 31 | 6 | 189 | 60.3% | 64.3% | -4.0 | Read |
| 31 | Deshaun Watson | Up 1 place, from 32 | 6 | 174 | 63.8% | 69.2% | -5.4 | Read |
| 32 | Jalon Daniels | Up 1 place, from 33 | 6 | 98 | 61.2% | 67.0% | -5.7 | |
| 33 | Jameis Winston | Up 1 place, from 34 | 6 | 158 | 57.0% | 63.2% | -6.2 |
Choosing between two of these players?
Both men's 2025 production side by side, and which of them rests on inputs that historically repeat.
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- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Pass Rate Over Expected
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
- Screen Pass Rate
- No-Huddle Rate
- RPO Rate
- Light Box Rate
- Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- Throwaway Rate
- Catchable Throw Rate
- Out-of-Pocket Rate
- Time to Throw
- Aggressiveness
Follow Completion Percentage Over Expected. When this board moves, you'll know — what changed, week over week.
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