Completion Percentage Over Expected Leaders
Completion Percentage Over Expected — 2026 NFL leaders, updated Oct 13, 2026. Lamar Jackson (BAL) led the league in completion percentage over expected at +7.1, ahead of 31 other qualifying players. Based on verified 2026 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through Week 5 of the 2026 season.
Raw completion percentage rewards a quarterback for throwing short. Completion percentage over expected does not: it models how likely each individual throw was to be completed given depth, pressure and receiver separation, then measures the passer against that. A plus number means he is completing throws other quarterbacks would miss.
| # | Player | Δ WK | G | Att | Comp% | xComp% | CPOE | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | Up 2 places, from 3 | 5 | 96 | 70.8% | 63.7% | +7.1 | Read |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | Up 5 places, from 7 | 5 | 185 | 64.3% | 57.6% | +6.7 | Read |
| 3 | Geno Smith | Down 2 places, from 1 | 5 | 147 | 69.4% | 63.1% | +6.3 | Read |
| 4 | Jacoby Brissett | Up 4 places, from 8 | 5 | 199 | 66.3% | 60.8% | +5.5 | Read |
| 5 | Brock Purdy | Up 6 places, from 11 | 5 | 142 | 69.0% | 63.5% | +5.5 | Read |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence | Down 2 places, from 4 | 5 | 143 | 67.1% | 62.0% | +5.2 | Read |
| 7 | Bryce Young | Up 2 places, from 9; did not play this week | 4 | 162 | 62.4% | 57.2% | +5.1 | Read |
| 8 | Joe Burrow | Up 2 places, from 10 | 5 | 189 | 71.4% | 66.7% | +4.7 | Read |
| 9 | Drake Maye | Up 10 places, from 19 | 5 | 151 | 65.6% | 60.9% | +4.6 | Read |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | Up 5 places, from 15 | 5 | 101 | 68.3% | 64.5% | +3.8 | Read |
| 11 | Sam Darnold | Down 6 places, from 5 | 5 | 98 | 64.3% | 60.5% | +3.8 | Read |
| 12 | Kirk Cousins | Up 2 places, from 14 | 5 | 172 | 65.1% | 62.0% | +3.1 | Read |
| 13 | Tyson Bagent | First appearance on this board | 5 | 64 | 65.6% | 62.6% | +3.0 | |
| 14 | Dak Prescott | Down 8 places, from 6 | 5 | 192 | 67.2% | 64.2% | +3.0 | Read |
| 15 | Tyler Shough | Down 2 places, from 13 | 5 | 205 | 66.8% | 64.4% | +2.5 | Read |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford | Up 2 places, from 18 | 5 | 216 | 64.3% | 62.6% | +1.8 | Read |
| 17 | Josh Allen | Down 1 place, from 16 | 5 | 138 | 65.9% | 64.4% | +1.6 | Read |
| 18 | Jared Goff | Up 2 places, from 20 | 5 | 191 | 67.0% | 66.1% | +0.9 | Read |
| 19 | Baker Mayfield | Up 2 places, from 21 | 5 | 96 | 63.5% | 63.4% | +0.1 | Read |
| 20 | Jayden Daniels | Up 7 places, from 27 | 5 | 76 | 60.5% | 60.7% | -0.2 | Read |
| 21 | Michael Penix Jr. | First appearance on this board | 5 | 77 | 67.5% | 68.0% | -0.5 | Read |
| 22 | Cam Ward | Up 2 places, from 24 | 5 | 155 | 63.2% | 64.3% | -1.1 | Read |
| 23 | Patrick Mahomes | No change; did not play this week | 4 | 128 | 64.1% | 65.6% | -1.5 | Read |
| 24 | Daniel Jones | Down 2 places, from 22 | 5 | 176 | 61.4% | 63.0% | -1.7 | Read |
| 25 | Malik Willis | Up 5 places, from 30 | 5 | 130 | 56.1% | 58.0% | -1.8 | Read |
| 26 | Aaron Rodgers | Up 2 places, from 28 | 5 | 184 | 59.8% | 61.7% | -2.0 | Read |
| 27 | Jalen Hurts | Down 1 place, from 26 | 5 | 154 | 57.8% | 60.2% | -2.4 | Read |
| 28 | Justin Herbert | Up 1 place, from 29 | 5 | 143 | 59.4% | 62.2% | -2.8 | Read |
| 29 | Jordan Love | Up 4 places, from 33 | 5 | 185 | 60.5% | 64.3% | -3.8 | Read |
| 30 | Jameis Winston | Up 2 places, from 32 | 5 | 132 | 57.6% | 61.4% | -3.9 | |
| 31 | Bo Nix | No change | 5 | 162 | 59.9% | 64.0% | -4.1 | Read |
| 32 | Deshaun Watson | Down 7 places, from 25 | 5 | 148 | 64.2% | 69.9% | -5.7 | Read |
Choosing between two of these players?
Both men's 2025 production side by side, and which of them rests on inputs that historically repeat.
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Pass Rate Over Expected
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
- Screen Pass Rate
- No-Huddle Rate
- RPO Rate
- Light Box Rate
- Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- Throwaway Rate
- Catchable Throw Rate
- Out-of-Pocket Rate
- Time to Throw
- Aggressiveness
Follow Completion Percentage Over Expected. When this board moves, you'll know — what changed, week over week.
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