Completion Percentage Over Expected Leaders
Completion Percentage Over Expected — 2025 NFL leaders, updated Sep 3, 2026. Drake Maye (NE) led the league in completion percentage over expected at +9.0, ahead of 35 other qualifying players. Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Raw completion percentage rewards a quarterback for throwing short. Completion percentage over expected does not: it models how likely each individual throw was to be completed given depth, pressure and receiver separation, then measures the passer against that. A plus number means he is completing throws other quarterbacks would miss.
| # | Player | Att | Comp% | xComp% | CPOE | Listen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Maye | 492 | 72.0% | 62.9% | +9.0 | |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | 284 | 69.4% | 64.5% | +4.9 | |
| 3 | Dak Prescott | 600 | 67.3% | 62.7% | +4.6 | |
| 4 | Sam Darnold | 477 | 67.7% | 63.6% | +4.1 | |
| 5 | Jordan Love | 439 | 66.3% | 62.4% | +3.9 | |
| 6 | Daniel Jones | 384 | 68.0% | 64.3% | +3.6 | |
| 7 | Jacoby Brissett | 485 | 65.0% | 61.4% | +3.5 | |
| 8 | Mac Jones | 289 | 69.5% | 66.0% | +3.5 | |
| 9 | Marcus Mariota | 227 | 61.2% | 57.8% | +3.5 | |
| 10 | Justin Herbert | 512 | 66.4% | 63.3% | +3.1 | |
| 11 | Jalen Hurts | 454 | 64.8% | 61.7% | +3.0 | |
| 12 | Spencer Rattler | 257 | 67.7% | 65.1% | +2.6 | |
| 13 | Matthew Stafford | 597 | 65.0% | 63.0% | +2.0 | |
| 14 | Joe Burrow | 259 | 66.8% | 64.8% | +2.0 | |
| 15 | Jared Goff | 578 | 68.0% | 66.3% | +1.7 | |
| 16 | Geno Smith | 448 | 67.4% | 65.8% | +1.6 | |
| 17 | Josh Allen | 460 | 69.3% | 67.8% | +1.5 | |
| 18 | Tyler Shough | 327 | 67.6% | 66.2% | +1.4 | |
| 19 | C.J. Stroud | 423 | 64.5% | 63.6% | +1.0 | |
| 20 | Bryce Young | 478 | 63.6% | 63.9% | -0.3 | |
| 21 | Tua Tagovailoa | 384 | 67.7% | 68.1% | -0.4 | |
| 22 | Joe Flacco | 416 | 60.3% | 61.0% | -0.7 | |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers | 498 | 65.7% | 66.6% | -0.9 | |
| 24 | Baker Mayfield | 543 | 63.2% | 64.8% | -1.7 | |
| 25 | Kirk Cousins | 269 | 61.7% | 63.4% | -1.7 | |
| 26 | Jaxson Dart | 339 | 63.7% | 65.7% | -2.0 | |
| 27 | Bo Nix | 612 | 63.4% | 65.4% | -2.0 | |
| 28 | Trevor Lawrence | 560 | 60.9% | 63.4% | -2.5 | |
| 29 | Michael Penix | 276 | 60.1% | 62.7% | -2.5 | |
| 30 | Lamar Jackson | 302 | 63.6% | 66.1% | -2.6 | |
| 31 | Patrick Mahomes | 502 | 62.8% | 65.4% | -2.7 | |
| 32 | Justin Fields | 204 | 62.8% | 65.7% | -2.9 | |
| 33 | Cameron Ward | 540 | 59.8% | 63.0% | -3.2 | |
| 34 | Shedeur Sanders | 212 | 56.6% | 60.1% | -3.5 | |
| 35 | J.J. McCarthy | 243 | 57.6% | 62.5% | -4.9 | |
| 36 | Caleb Williams | 568 | 58.1% | 64.8% | -6.7 |
Choosing between two of these players?
Both men's 2025 production side by side, and which of them rests on inputs that historically repeat.
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