Matthew Stafford (QB, Los Angeles Rams) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Sep 11, 2026.

In 2025, Matthew Stafford finished QB3 at 20.6 Half-PPR points per game (350.4 total) across 17 games.

Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.

Week 1 — The Take

Stafford completed fifteen of twenty-five for a hundred fifty-five yards, no touchdowns and one interception, and the drive that could have made it a game ended on his keeper: fourth and one at the San Francisco one, down 17–7 with three forty-six left in the third, he kept it behind the right guard and was stopped short, a ruling the replay official upheld. Stetson Bennett took the final possession of a 27–7 loss in Melbourne.

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2026 — through Week 1
Scored Half-PPR
Pos. rank
Half-PPR / game
20.6
Last game
2025
QB3
20.6/g

Where he ranks2025

13 leaderboards

What these mean: expected points added per dropback · intended air yards · adjusted net yards per attempt · pressure rate · deep-ball expected points added per attempt · man and zone coverage splits · completion percentage over expected · QB composite rating · interception-worthy throw rate · quarterback-fault sack rate · availability rate

Rams backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.

More episodes

  • Camp · Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026

    Matthew Stafford Camp Update — August 31: Rested All the Way to Melbourne

    Stafford sat out the preseason finale with all the regular starters and finishes the exhibition season with zero game snaps, by design. He is one of three quarterbacks on the initial fifty-three, and as of August twenty-seventh the team had not determined whether Stetson Bennett or rookie Ty Simpson backs him up.

  • Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

    Matthew Stafford Camp Update — August 23: Forty-Five Live Snaps Against the Saints

    Stafford took forty-five competitive snaps in the joint practice against the Saints — his biggest live workload of camp — and spent the morning connecting with Davante Adams, deep ball included. One preseason game and one cutdown separate him from Melbourne.

  • Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

    Matthew Stafford Camp Update — August 16: The Encore Is Actually Practicing This Time

    Stafford sits atop the Rams' first depth chart and, unlike last August, is fully participating in camp. The June bet on the reigning MVP's floor looks intact, with the rookie succession story humming quietly behind him.

  • 2026 PreviewJun 15, 2026

    Matthew Stafford 2026 Season Preview — the reigning MVP at QB12

    Stafford's QB3 finish was built on 20.6 half-PPR points per game across all 17 games, a workload-driven total that reflects sustained availability rather than a spike in efficiency or touchdowns. His 87.1% availability rate from 2021–25 is the kind of repeatable input that tends to carry between seasons, making durability the real foundation of what he produced in 2025.

    0:002:49

    Your episode · 2:49

    Show notes & transcript

    Matthew Stafford threw 46 touchdown passes, won the MVP, and finished as the number-three fantasy quarterback last season. He's the twelfth quarterback off the board, because he turns 38 and nobody trusts it to repeat. The Muffed 2026 preview.

    The 2025 season was a career year and an award: 4700 passing yards, 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, 26 a... 20.6 a game, QB3 per game and in total. The signature was a 457-yard, three-touchdown clinic against Seattle in Week 16. And the efficiency was elite, not lucky — his adjusted net yards per attempt ranked second in the entire league. This was a genuinely great quarterback season.

    The arc is a long, jagged veteran line that just spiked to its peak: years in the teens and low twenties, and then, at 37, the best fantasy season of his career in the Rams' offense.

    Now the honest accounting. Two real cautions: he's a pure pocket passer — essentially zero rushing — so he sits in the profile our research says repeats top-six only about a quarter of the time, with no rushing floor; and 46 touchdowns is a career-outlier number that almost certainly regresses. So we're not projecting another MVP. The point is narrower: even with real touchdown regression, a QB3 finish with the league's second-best efficiency, priced QB12, is too cheap.

    The situation, per the reports, supports a strong encore — now with a contract and a succession plan attached: Stafford announced his return during his MVP acceptance speech in February, then signed a one-year extension in May worth 55 million, fully guaranteed. He's had a normal, healthy spring — throwing at OTAs in May, against last year's back saga when he didn't practice until mid-August. Nacua and Adams are both back, and the Rams did quietly draft his successor — first-rounder Ty Simpson threw side-by-side with him all spring — but that's 2027's story. Elite weapons, a proven scheme, and a quarterback coming off the best year of his life.

    The price: pick 90, the twelfth quarterback. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. The reigning MVP, a QB3 finish, 46 touchdowns, priced QB12 because of his age. The counter is real: at 38, a pocket passer with no rushing floor carries genuine cliff risk, and 46 touchdowns won't repeat. But the discount bakes in a collapse, and the floor of even a regressed Stafford in that offense beats QB12.

    September watch: the touchdown rate — 46 regresses, the question is how far; and any sign of age catching the arm, the one thing that ends it. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.

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