Matthew Stafford (QB, Los Angeles Rams) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Oct 6, 2026.
In 2025, Matthew Stafford finished QB3 at 20.6 Half-PPR points per game (350.4 total) across 17 games.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Stafford completed 32 of 51 for 317 yards, no touchdowns and two first-half interceptions against the Eagles, then went 12 of 15 for 140 yards on the last two drives, of 98 and 79 yards, that turned a 20–10 deficit into a 24–20 win.
When Matthew Stafford's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
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Where he ranks — 2026
- #1Clean-Core Rating
- #1Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- #2Quarterback Pressure Rate
- #3Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- #7Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- #7Aggressiveness
- #10Time to Throw
- #15Completion Percentage Over Expected
- #16Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- #17Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- #18Throwaway Rate
- #18Catchable Throw Rate
- #19QB Composite Rating
- #21Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- #23Quarterback Deep Ball
- #24Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- #24Out-of-Pocket Rate
- #85Availability
- #101Usage vs Production
Rams backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Week 3
Matthew Stafford — Week 3: Three Ninety, Two Late Picks
Stafford completed 30 of 55 attempts, two of them spikes, for 390 yards, the most by any quarterback in Week 3 so far, with two touchdowns, two interceptions and four sacks. Talanoa Hufanga's 66-yard pick-six on third and 6 with 5:01 left turned a 19–16 lead into a deficit, and Hufanga's second interception ended the game in the end zone, in a 30–26 loss to the Broncos.
- Week 2
Matthew Stafford — Week 2: Four Touchdowns, Three Twenty-Seven
Stafford completed 22 of 31 throws for 327 yards and four touchdowns with one interception and one sack, and the Rams' passing game produced plus 18.6 expected points on 32 pass plays, second-best of the 32 teams in Week 2. Four touchdown passes tied Dak Prescott and Jared Goff for the most in the week, in a 28–6 win over the Giants.
- Week 1
Matthew Stafford — Week 1: Stopped at the One, and Fifteen of Twenty-Five
Stafford completed fifteen of twenty-five for a hundred fifty-five yards, no touchdowns and one interception, and the drive that could have made it a game ended on his keeper: fourth and one at the San Francisco one, down 17–7 with three forty-six left in the third, he kept it behind the right guard and was stopped short, a ruling the replay official upheld. Stetson Bennett took the final possession of a 27–7 loss in Melbourne.
- Camp · Aug 31, 2026
Matthew Stafford Camp Update — August 31: Rested All the Way to Melbourne
Stafford sat out the preseason finale with all the regular starters and finishes the exhibition season with zero game snaps, by design. He is one of three quarterbacks on the initial fifty-three, and as of August twenty-seventh the team had not determined whether Stetson Bennett or rookie Ty Simpson backs him up.
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Matthew Stafford Camp Update — August 23: Forty-Five Live Snaps Against the Saints
Stafford took forty-five competitive snaps in the joint practice against the Saints — his biggest live workload of camp — and spent the morning connecting with Davante Adams, deep ball included. One preseason game and one cutdown separate him from Melbourne.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Matthew Stafford Camp Update — August 16: The Encore Is Actually Practicing This Time
Stafford sits atop the Rams' first depth chart and, unlike last August, is fully participating in camp. The June bet on the reigning MVP's floor looks intact, with the rookie succession story humming quietly behind him.
- 2026 Preview
Matthew Stafford 2026 Season Preview — the reigning MVP at QB12
Stafford's QB3 finish was built on 20.6 half-PPR points per game across all 17 games, a workload-driven total that reflects sustained availability rather than a spike in efficiency or touchdowns. His 87.1% availability rate from 2021–25 is the kind of repeatable input that tends to carry between seasons, making durability the real foundation of what he produced in 2025.
Show notes & transcript
Matthew Stafford threw 46 touchdown passes, won the MVP, and finished as the number-three fantasy quarterback last season. He's the twelfth quarterback off the board, because he turns 38 and nobody trusts it to repeat. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was a career year and an award: 4700 passing yards, 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, 26 a... 20.6 a game, QB3 per game and in total. The signature was a 457-yard, three-touchdown clinic against Seattle in Week 16. And the efficiency was elite, not lucky — his adjusted net yards per attempt ranked second in the entire league. This was a genuinely great quarterback season.
The arc is a long, jagged veteran line that just spiked to its peak: years in the teens and low twenties, and then, at 37, the best fantasy season of his career in the Rams' offense.
Now the honest accounting. Two real cautions: he's a pure pocket passer — essentially zero rushing — so he sits in the profile our research says repeats top-six only about a quarter of the time, with no rushing floor; and 46 touchdowns is a career-outlier number that almost certainly regresses. So we're not projecting another MVP. The point is narrower: even with real touchdown regression, a QB3 finish with the league's second-best efficiency, priced QB12, is too cheap.
The situation, per the reports, supports a strong encore — now with a contract and a succession plan attached: Stafford announced his return during his MVP acceptance speech in February, then signed a one-year extension in May worth 55 million, fully guaranteed. He's had a normal, healthy spring — throwing at OTAs in May, against last year's back saga when he didn't practice until mid-August. Nacua and Adams are both back, and the Rams did quietly draft his successor — first-rounder Ty Simpson threw side-by-side with him all spring — but that's 2027's story. Elite weapons, a proven scheme, and a quarterback coming off the best year of his life.
The price: pick 90, the twelfth quarterback. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. The reigning MVP, a QB3 finish, 46 touchdowns, priced QB12 because of his age. The counter is real: at 38, a pocket passer with no rushing floor carries genuine cliff risk, and 46 touchdowns won't repeat. But the discount bakes in a collapse, and the floor of even a regressed Stafford in that offense beats QB12.
September watch: the touchdown rate — 46 regresses, the question is how far; and any sign of age catching the arm, the one thing that ends it. Your whole roster gets this treatment every week — that's the show.
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From The Muffed Read
- What repeated from Week 1 to Week 2? Chicago's 3, the Rams' 28, Carolina's defense and Jalen Coker's target share, run back through Issue 5's ruler.
Chicago scored 59, then 3. The Rams scored 7, then 28. Carolina allowed 59, then 3. The loud numbers flipped. The usage held — for Coker, for Walker, and for the ruler.
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