Matthew Stafford — Week 7: 23 of 29, Three Touchdowns

Matthew Stafford kept the ball moving on short throws against the Raiders: 23 of 29 for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception, sacked once, in a 35-21 win at Las Vegas. Over 30 dropbacks he was worth +5.2 expected points added (EPA), what a play was worth given down, distance and field position. Completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which compares completions with what each throw's difficulty predicts, was +7.4.

The throw that started it came with 10 seconds left in the first quarter, up 7-3: third and 5 at his own 25, he hit Puka Nacua over the middle for 11 yards, +1.84 EPA and 5.2 points of win probability, the estimate of each side's chance to win. That drive ended on his 5-yard touchdown to Davis Allen, after a 3-yarder to Allen in the first quarter. Up 14-3, second and 8 at the Las Vegas 11, he found Nacua short left for his third touchdown pass. On third and 3 at the Las Vegas 34 with 1:35 left in the half, his 14-yard throw to Kyren Williams set up the score that made it 28-3.

The miss came on the first Rams snap of the fourth, up 28-12: a short throw for Colby Parkinson at his own 31, intercepted by Nakobe Dean, -5.44 EPA. He answered on the next drive with a 15-yard throw to Tyler Higbee on third and 2, part of the 70-yard drive that made it 35-18.

It beat his season rate. Through Week 6 he had thrown for 1,794 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, at +0.09 EPA per dropback over 260 dropbacks; here it was +0.17. His CPOE through Week 6 was +0.8.

Follow Matthew Stafford on Muffed, and every episode lands in your weekly email.

_Data via nflverse._