CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
CPOE is a quarterback's completion percentage minus the completion percentage expected on his throws, given depth, receiver separation and pressure. Drake Maye of the Patriots led 2025 at +9.1 percentage points over expected.
Next Gen Stats models every throw and estimates how often an average passer completes it, using the tracking data — how far the ball travelled, how open the receiver was, whether a rusher was closing. CPOE is the gap between what a quarterback actually completed and that expectation. Raw completion percentage rewards checking down; this does not.
Completion Percentage Over Expected — 2026 leaders
| # | Player | Att | Comp% | xComp% | CPOE | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Stroud | 219 | 65.3% | 57.6% | +7.7 | Read |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson | 96 | 70.8% | 63.7% | +7.1 | Read |
| 3 | Geno Smith | 177 | 68.9% | 62.9% | +6.1 | Read |
| 4 | Jacoby Brissett | 234 | 66.7% | 60.8% | +5.9 | Read |
| 5 | Caleb Williams | 124 | 71.0% | 65.2% | +5.8 | Read |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | 171 | 69.6% | 64.5% | +5.1 | Read |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | 189 | 71.4% | 66.7% | +4.7 | Read |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | 101 | 68.3% | 64.5% | +3.8 | Read |
| 9 | Trevor Lawrence | 184 | 65.2% | 61.6% | +3.6 | Read |
| 10 | Drake Maye | 214 | 65.9% | 62.3% | +3.6 | Read |
Why it matters
CPOE is the closest thing to a passing truth serum, and it is where a lot of quarterback pricing goes wrong. Drake Maye finished +9.1 and Brock Purdy was second at +5.1, while Caleb Williams finished last of 36 qualifiers at -6.9. Accuracy travels with the passer more than the scheme does, which makes it useful when a quarterback changes teams. It is one stat, and it does not measure arm strength, decisions or how often he was hit.
The counter
Accuracy is not the whole quarterback, and CPOE says nothing about volume or rushing production.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
Follow the football you care about. Players, teams, stat boards — press Follow on any of them, and that is what your weekly email is made of. Nothing you didn't ask for.
Ask this data a question
Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.