CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
CPOE is a quarterback's completion percentage minus the completion percentage expected on his throws, given depth, receiver separation and pressure. Drake Maye of the Patriots led 2025 at +9.1 percentage points over expected.
Next Gen Stats models every throw and estimates how often an average passer completes it, using the tracking data — how far the ball travelled, how open the receiver was, whether a rusher was closing. CPOE is the gap between what a quarterback actually completed and that expectation. Raw completion percentage rewards checking down; this does not.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Player | Att | Comp% | xComp% | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 492 | 72.0% | 62.8% | +9.1 |
| 2 | Brock PurdyQB · SF | 284 | 69.4% | 64.3% | +5.1 |
| 3 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 600 | 67.3% | 62.9% | +4.4 |
| 4 | Sam DarnoldQB · SEA | 477 | 67.7% | 63.4% | +4.3 |
| 5 | Jordan LoveQB · GB | 439 | 66.3% | 62.5% | +3.8 |
| 6 | Daniel JonesQB · IND | 384 | 68.0% | 64.6% | +3.4 |
| 7 | Jacoby BrissettQB · ARI | 485 | 65.0% | 61.6% | +3.4 |
| 8 | Justin HerbertQB · LAC | 512 | 66.4% | 63.1% | +3.3 |
| 9 | Marcus MariotaQB · WAS | 227 | 61.2% | 57.9% | +3.3 |
| 10 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 454 | 64.8% | 61.7% | +3.1 |
See the full completion percentage over expected leaderboard — Drake Maye leads.
Why it matters
CPOE is the closest thing to a passing truth serum, and it is where a lot of quarterback pricing goes wrong. Drake Maye finished +9.1 and Brock Purdy was second at +5.1, while Caleb Williams finished last of 36 qualifiers at -6.9. Accuracy travels with the passer more than the scheme does, which makes it useful when a quarterback changes teams. It is one stat, and it does not measure arm strength, decisions or how often he was hit.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
Accuracy is not the whole quarterback, and CPOE says nothing about volume or rushing production.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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