Kyler Murray (QB, Minnesota Vikings) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Sep 28, 2026.
In 2025, Kyler Murray finished QB38 at 15.6 Half-PPR points per game (77.8 total) across 5 games.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Murray completed 15 of 29 throws for 168 yards, a touchdown and an interception, took three sacks and scrambled twice for 17 yards. He was 6 of 10 for 112 yards before halftime, including the 41-yard touchdown to Jordan Addison, and 9 of 19 for 56 after it. Minnesota's pass plays succeeded 19 percent of the time, lowest of the 28 teams to have played Week 3, in a 23–16 win over the Buccaneers.
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Where he ranks — 2026
Vikings backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Week 1
Kyler Murray — Week 1: Five Throws, One Picked, Then Out
Murray started, completed three of five throws for eighteen yards with an interception on his second snap, scrambled twice for nine yards, and did not play after a scramble with six sixteen left in the first quarter; he was ruled out with a concussion, per Lindsey Young at Vikings.com. Carson Wentz took the remaining twenty-two Vikings pass plays and threw three touchdowns, in a 39–22 win over the Packers.
- Camp · Aug 31, 2026
Kyler Murray Camp Update — August 31: One Exhibition Drive Into Week One
Minnesota rested its starters in the preseason finale and the quarterbacking went to Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer, so Kyler Murray goes to Week One on the one exhibition drive our last episode logged. The room behind him kept moving: four quarterbacks kept Sunday, then Brosmer waived Monday, with J.J. McCarthy hurt and taking third-string reps.
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Kyler Murray Camp Update — August 23: Two Ravens Practices, Zero Game Snaps
Kyler Murray's week was all joint practices: a Wednesday against Baltimore the two charters scored very differently, a clean two-minute drill Thursday, and a seat for Saturday's game with the rest of the starters. Plus a red-zone flurry to Hockenson and one loud height take on national TV.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Kyler Murray Camp Update — August 16: Named the Starter, a Week Early
Kevin O'Connell named Kyler Murray the Week One starter on Tuesday, ending the competition a week before the beat expected a decision. The June read hinged on exactly one thing, the job, and the job is now his.
- 2026 Preview
Kyler Murray 2026 Season Preview — what repeats, what doesn't
WATCHLIST — QB17 prices a starting job he doesn't have yet; a career 17.5 floor with Jefferson if he wins the competition.
Show notes & transcript
Kyler Murray is priced like a starter — seventeenth quarterback, pick one-13 — and as of the last minicamp report out of Minnesota, he does not have a starting job. That sentence is doing all the work in this price, so let's price the sentence.
The season that got him here: five games, 962 passing yards, six touchdowns and three picks, a hundred 73 rushing yards — 15.6 points a game on quarterback scoring in the games he played, and 30-eighth in total points because there were only five of them. A midfoot sprain in week five put him on injured reserve; Arizona shut him down in December — the coach said the foot was, quote, just not right, per the team site — and no surgery was ever reported, per SI's Cardinals coverage. Inside the five games: a 68 percent completion rate and nearly 35 rushing yards a game — the legs were still the legs.
The career baseline is the part the market remembers: before last season, he had never averaged under 17 and a half points a game — not once in six years — with a peak of 23-seven in 20-20. The rushing floor made that possible. Four of his six full seasons landed at 18 a game or better.
On patterns: our rushing-quarterback rule says top-six QB seasons built on 25-percent-plus rushing production repeat at 61 percent, against 24 for pocket passers. Murray's top-six years are four seasons old, so the rule doesn't fire — but the mechanism it measures, the legs, is the reason his floor has historically been so high. What no pattern can price: a two-man quarterback competition. The library conditions on jobs, and he doesn't have one yet.
How he got here, dated: Arizona told him March third he'd be released, released him March eleventh, and he signed with Minnesota on March twelfth — one year, league minimum, with Arizona still paying the balance of his old deal, per ESPN's Kevin Seifert. The deal even bars Minnesota from tagging him next spring, per ESPN. Kevin O'Connell declined to name a starter that day — quote, I don't believe we have to name one of those currently — and hasn't since: through June minicamp the competition with J.J. McCarthy — who started 10 games last season at a 35.6 QBR, per ESPN — was live, with Heavy and other beat coverage in late June describing Murray as the favorite who nonetheless threw some, quote, curious interceptions, while McCarthy closed the gap. The weapons are the draw: Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, plus Jauan Jennings, signed from San Francisco in May. It's also a front office in transition — an interim general manager signed off on the whole arrangement, per ESPN.
The price: QB17 buys a maybe. The slot assumes a bridge starter with upside — a fair description of the player, and a generous one of the job status. Our verdict: watchlist. We can't underwrite a depth chart, and we won't fade a career-long 17-five floor attached to Justin Jefferson either. The caveat, spoken in both directions: if he's named the starter in August, a healthy Murray in an O'Connell offense is the cheapest rushing floor on the board and this price was a gift. If McCarthy wins it, you drafted a backup at pick one-13.
Watch the first-team rep split when pads come on, and any date O'Connell sets for a decision. Rep splits with the ones are the only scoreboard a quarterback competition has until a depth chart drops. He's one of your guys? Every player on your roster gets this treatment — every week, all season.
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