Market vs Reality
Market vs Reality — 2025 NFL rankings, updated Jul 26, 2026. Luther Burden III (CHI) carried the widest gap between draft cost and production, finishing 32.0 positional places below his average draft position across 70 qualifying players. Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
This is the gap between what a player cost and what he produced: 2026 average draft position on one side, 2025 positional finish on the other. A large positive gap means the market is drafting him well above last season's production, which is sometimes right and always worth a reason. A large negative gap means the field has not caught up yet.
| # | Player | ADP Pos | 2025 Finish | Gap | HPPR/G | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luther Burden IIIWR · CHI | 21 | 53 | +32.0 | 7.0 | 15 |
| 2 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 5 | 34 | +29.0 | 9.4 | 17 |
| 3 | Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX | 26 | 52 | +26.0 | 5.6 | 15 |
| 4 | DeVonta SmithWR · PHI | 12 | 30 | +18.0 | 9.6 | 17 |
| 5 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KC | 11 | 29 | +18.0 | 10.4 | 17 |
| 6 | DJ MooreWR · BUF | 22 | 38 | +16.0 | 8.7 | 17 |
| 7 | Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC | 20 | 35 | +15.0 | 9.2 | 16 |
| 8 | Emeka EgbukaWR · TB | 15 | 29 | +14.0 | 9.7 | 17 |
| 9 | Lamar JacksonQB · BAL | 2 | 16 | +14.0 | 16.5 | 13 |
| 10 | Mike EvansWR · SF | 23 | 37 | +14.0 | 8.7 | 8 |
| 11 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX | 30 | 43 | +13.0 | 8.2 | 14 |
| 12 | Colston LovelandTE · CHI | 3 | 15 | +12.0 | 8.5 | 16 |
| 13 | Joe BurrowQB · CIN | 3 | 15 | +12.0 | 16.8 | 8 |
| 14 | Ashton JeantyRB · LV | 6 | 17 | +11.0 | 12.8 | 17 |
| 15 | David MontgomeryRB · HOU | 21 | 32 | +11.0 | 9.1 | 17 |
| 16 | Terry McLaurinWR · WAS | 24 | 32 | +8.0 | 9.5 | 10 |
| 17 | Tyler WarrenTE · IND | 4 | 11 | +7.0 | 8.9 | 17 |
| 18 | Breece HallRB · NYJ | 14 | 20 | +6.0 | 11.9 | 16 |
| 19 | Omarion HamptonRB · LAC | 9 | 15 | +6.0 | 13.3 | 9 |
| 20 | Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI | 8 | 14 | +6.0 | 13.4 | 16 |
| 21 | A.J. BrownWR · NE | 8 | 13 | +5.0 | 12.1 | 15 |
| 22 | CeeDee LambWR · DAL | 6 | 11 | +5.0 | 12.6 | 13 |
| 23 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 18 | 23 | +5.0 | 10.5 | 17 |
| 24 | Brock BowersTE · LV | 1 | 4 | +3.0 | 12.0 | 12 |
| 25 | Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET | 1 | 4 | +3.0 | 19.3 | 17 |
| 26 | Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE | 20 | 23 | +3.0 | 11.2 | 14 |
| 27 | Caleb WilliamsQB · CHI | 6 | 8 | +2.0 | 18.6 | 17 |
| 28 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 1 | 3 | +2.0 | 15.7 | 16 |
| 29 | TreVeyon HendersonRB · NE | 22 | 24 | +2.0 | 11.1 | 17 |
| 30 | Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL | 2 | 3 | +1.0 | 19.5 | 17 |
| 31 | Dak PrescottQB · DAL | 8 | 9 | +1.0 | 18.5 | 17 |
| 32 | James Cook IIIRB · BUF | 5 | 6 | +1.0 | 16.8 | 17 |
| 33 | Nico CollinsWR · HOU | 9 | 10 | +1.0 | 12.7 | 15 |
| 34 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 15.6 | 17 |
| 35 | Drake LondonWR · ATL | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 12 |
| 36 | Jalen HurtsQB · PHI | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 18.8 | 16 |
| 37 | Josh AllenQB · BUF | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 22.8 | 16 |
| 38 | Chase BrownRB · CIN | 10 | 9 | -1.0 | 14.6 | 17 |
| 39 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 3 | 2 | -1.0 | 17.7 | 17 |
| 40 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 2 | 1 | -1.0 | 19.4 | 16 |
| 41 | Trey McBrideTE · ARI | 2 | 1 | -1.0 | 14.9 | 17 |
| 42 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 11 | 9 | -2.0 | 13.6 | 16 |
| 43 | Christian McCaffreyRB · SF | 3 | 1 | -2.0 | 21.5 | 17 |
| 44 | De'Von AchaneRB · MIA | 7 | 5 | -2.0 | 18.1 | 16 |
| 45 | Drake MayeQB · NE | 4 | 2 | -2.0 | 20.6 | 17 |
| 46 | Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN | 27 | 25 | -2.0 | 10.1 | 16 |
| 47 | Jonathan TaylorRB · IND | 4 | 2 | -2.0 | 20.0 | 17 |
| 48 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 16 | 14 | -2.0 | 11.8 | 17 |
| 49 | Tucker KraftTE · GB | 5 | 2 | -3.0 | 12.6 | 8 |
| 50 | George PickensWR · DAL | 10 | 6 | -4.0 | 14.4 | 17 |
| 51 | Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL | 16 | 12 | -4.0 | 14.1 | 16 |
| 52 | Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR | 15 | 11 | -4.0 | 14.4 | 17 |
| 53 | Rome OdunzeWR · CHI | 28 | 24 | -4.0 | 10.3 | 12 |
| 54 | Travis Etienne Jr.RB · NO | 17 | 13 | -4.0 | 13.9 | 17 |
| 55 | Bucky IrvingRB · TB | 23 | 18 | -5.0 | 12.3 | 10 |
| 56 | Derrick HenryRB · BAL | 12 | 7 | -5.0 | 16.0 | 17 |
| 57 | Tee HigginsWR · CIN | 17 | 12 | -5.0 | 12.1 | 15 |
| 58 | D'Andre SwiftRB · CHI | 24 | 16 | -8.0 | 13.2 | 16 |
| 59 | Rashee RiceWR · KC | 13 | 5 | -8.0 | 15.4 | 8 |
| 60 | Cam SkatteboRB · NYG | 19 | 10 | -9.0 | 14.5 | 8 |
| 61 | Jameson WilliamsWR · DET | 26 | 17 | -9.0 | 11.0 | 17 |
| 62 | Josh JacobsRB · GB | 18 | 8 | -10.0 | 14.6 | 15 |
| 63 | Christian WatsonWR · GB | 29 | 15 | -14.0 | 11.5 | 10 |
| 64 | Davante AdamsWR · LAR | 25 | 8 | -17.0 | 13.8 | 14 |
| 65 | Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARI | 13 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 66 | Malik NabersWR · NYG | 14 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 67 | Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ | 19 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 68 | Jadarian PriceRB · SEA | 25 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 69 | Jayden DanielsQB · WAS | 5 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 70 | Carnell TateWR · TEN | 31 | — | — | — | 0 |
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Pass Rate Over Expected
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
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