WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
WOPR combines target share and air yards share into one opportunity number: 1.5 times target share plus 0.7 times air yards share. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led 2025 at 0.887, on a 35.8% target share and a 50.0% air yards share.
The two weights come from how much each input predicts receiving production, with target share carrying roughly twice the weight of air yards share. The result is a single figure for how much of an offense's passing opportunity a receiver controls. Higher is more.
Weighted Opportunity Rating — 2026 leaders
| # | Player | WOPR | Tgt Share | AY Share | Tgt | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0.86 | 35.1% | 48.4% | 66 | Read |
| 2 | Carnell Tate | 0.76 | 26.7% | 50.8% | 44 | Read |
| 3 | Drake London | 0.74 | 28.8% | 43.9% | 46 | Read |
| 4 | Chris Olave | 0.72 | 27.1% | 44.3% | 61 | Read |
| 5 | CeeDee Lamb | 0.70 | 28.8% | 38.6% | 69 | Read |
| 6 | Garrett Wilson | 0.70 | 28.6% | 38.7% | 48 | Read |
| 7 | Malik Nabers | 0.69 | 29.6% | 35.0% | 61 | Read |
| 8 | Parker Washington | 0.68 | 25.8% | 41.2% | 46 | Read |
| 9 | Matthew Golden | 0.67 | 25.8% | 40.9% | 57 | Read |
| 10 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0.67 | 30.3% | 31.0% | 57 | Read |
Why it matters
Target share and air yards share each miss something on their own — one ignores depth, the other ignores volume — and WOPR is the attempt to price both at once. It held at 0.66 year over year across 745 qualifying pairs, between target share at 0.55 and air yards share at 0.79. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led at 0.887 and Amon-Ra St. Brown was second at 0.734. Blending two inputs makes it harder to see which one moved.
The counter
A composite hides its parts; check the two shares separately before acting on the blend.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
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