WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
WOPR combines target share and air yards share into one opportunity number: 1.5 times target share plus 0.7 times air yards share. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led 2025 at 0.888, on a 35.8% target share and a 50.1% air yards share.
The two weights come from how much each input predicts receiving production, with target share carrying roughly twice the weight of air yards share. The result is a single figure for how much of an offense's passing opportunity a receiver controls. Higher is more.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Player | WOPR | Tgt Share | AY Share | Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA | 0.89 | 35.8% | 50.1% | 163 |
| 2 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET | 0.73 | 31.3% | 37.8% | 172 |
| 3 | Justin JeffersonWR · MIN | 0.72 | 30.1% | 38.6% | 141 |
| 4 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN | 0.70 | 30.4% | 34.4% | 185 |
| 5 | Chris OlaveWR · NO | 0.69 | 27.6% | 39.4% | 156 |
| 6 | Zay FlowersWR · BAL | 0.69 | 29.0% | 35.7% | 118 |
| 7 | Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR | 0.68 | 25.4% | 43.3% | 122 |
| 8 | Puka NacuaWR · LAR | 0.64 | 28.6% | 29.6% | 166 |
| 9 | A.J. BrownWR · PHI | 0.63 | 26.1% | 33.8% | 121 |
| 10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · NYG | 0.61 | 27.8% | 27.5% | 140 |
See the full weighted opportunity rating leaderboard — Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads.
Why it matters
Target share and air yards share each miss something on their own — one ignores depth, the other ignores volume — and WOPR is the attempt to price both at once. It held at 0.66 year over year across 745 qualifying pairs, between target share at 0.55 and air yards share at 0.79. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led at 0.888 and Amon-Ra St. Brown was second at 0.734. Blending two inputs makes it harder to see which one moved.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
A composite hides its parts; check the two shares separately before acting on the blend.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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