Glossary

Deep ball rate

A deep ball is a pass aimed 20 or more air yards past the line of scrimmage, caught or not. Deep ball rate is the share of a quarterback's attempts that went that far. The 2025 league average was 11.6 percent; Marcus Mariota threw deep most often at 17.4 percent and Jared Goff least at 6.7 percent.

Air yards are the distance from the line of scrimmage to where a pass was aimed. A throw of 20 or more is a deep ball, and it stays one whether it is caught, dropped, overthrown or intercepted — the definition is about where the ball was sent, not what came back. Deep ball rate divides those attempts by all of a passer's attempts. Sacks are left out of both halves, because a sack has no air yards and was never an attempt.

Updated Sep 15, 2026

Quarterback Deep Ball — 2026 leaders

Quarterback Deep Ball, 2026
#PlayerDeep AttDeep Cmp%EPA/AttDeep YdsDeep RateListen
1Joe BurrowCIN771.4%2.511326.8%
2Geno SmithNYJ1163.6%1.9920510.6%
3Drew LockSEA560.0%1.9712710.4%
4Carson WentzMIN366.7%1.71697.5%
5Jared GoffDET666.7%1.66905.5%
6Josh AllenBUF1540.0%1.1723517.2%
7Trevor LawrenceJAX944.4%1.1512211.1%
8Jalen HurtsPHI1154.5%1.1219412.6%
9Deshaun WatsonCLE540.0%1.10716.0%
10Sam DarnoldSEA366.7%1.07466.4%

Sacks are excluded, because a sack has no air yards and is not an attempt. The deep rate divides by the passer's own attempts rather than by his dropbacks for the same reason.

See the full quarterback deep ball board — Joe Burrow leads.

Why it matters

It separates two things a passing line runs together. Completion percentage collapses when a quarterback throws deep — the 2025 league average on 20-plus air yards was 36.2 percent against 64.6 percent on all throws — so a passer who goes deep often looks less accurate for reasons that have nothing to do with accuracy. Reading the rate next to the result is what makes the comparison fair, and expected points added per deep attempt is the honest scoreboard, because a deep incompletion costs an offense almost nothing while a deep completion is frequently the whole drive. Drake Maye led 2025 at 1.01 expected points added per deep attempt on 70 attempts, completing half of them for 1,093 yards.

Updated Sep 15, 2026

The counter

How often a quarterback throws deep is mostly his coordinator's decision and his receivers' speed, not a skill he owns. A high rate is a description of an offense, not a compliment to a passer, which is why the rate belongs beside the outcome columns rather than inside them.

Updated Sep 15, 2026

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