Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay Packers) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Jul 2, 2026.

In 2025, Jordan Love finished QB15 at 15.7 Half-PPR points per game (235.1 total) across 15 games.

Muffed's 2026 take on Jordan Love: QB18 prices two flat years to the tenth of a point; the ceiling case is all environment, not base rate.

Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.

The Muffed Take
2025: QB15 · 15.7/g

QB18 prices two flat years to the tenth of a point; the ceiling case is all environment, not base rate.

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2025 by the numbers
Scored Half-PPR
Finish
QB15
Half-PPR / game
15.7
Total Half-PPR
235.1
Games
15

2025: 3,381 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 6 INTs; 199 rushing yards on 47 carries, 0 rushing TDs (15 games)

Where he ranks2025

13 leaderboards

What these mean: man and zone coverage splits · expected points added per dropback · completion percentage over expected · adjusted net yards per attempt · deep-ball expected points added per attempt · intended air yards · pressure rate · QB composite rating · interception-worthy throw rate · quarterback-fault sack rate · availability rate

Packers backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.

More episodes

  • Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

    Jordan Love Camp Update — August 23: One Series, One Touchdown Drive

    Jordan Love played one series in Denver and finished it this time — five of seven for fifty-six yards and a touchdown to MarShawn Lloyd. The environment around him also moved: Kraft caught a team-drill touchdown from him, Golden converted a fourth down, and Jacobs returned to practice.

  • Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

    Jordan Love Camp Update — August 16: Five Throws Settle Nothing

    Jordan Love played one clean series in Pittsburgh behind a shorthanded line and handed it off to the backups. The environment bet around him is still assembling, so the June read sits exactly where it was.

  • 2026 PreviewJul 2, 2026

    Jordan Love 2026 Season Preview — what repeats, what doesn't

    NO CALL — QB18 prices two flat years to the tenth of a point; the ceiling case is all environment, not base rate.

    0:003:33

    Your episode · 3:33

    Show notes & transcript

    Green Bay spent the offseason arming Jordan Love — a nine-figure receiver extension, last year's first-rounder entering year two, a starting tight end on schedule to return — and the market still prices him as the eighteenth quarterback, pick one-17. It has a reason: 15-point-something, two years running.

    The season: 15 games — a concussion in week 16 against Chicago ended his year a game early, per PackersNews — with a 66 percent completion rate, 3381 yards, 23 touchdowns against six picks, and a hundred 99 rushing yards. 15.7 points a game on quarterback scoring, twentieth per game, fifteenth in total. Green Bay went nine, seven, and one and made the wild-card round. The volume was modest by design — 29 attempts a game — and the seventh seed was the reward.

    The career question is which season was the trend: 18.8 a game in 20-23, then 15-six, then 15-seven. Two flat years say the market's number; the spike says the ceiling exists. The gap between the spike and the flats is about three points a game — in quarterback-scoring terms, the distance between streaming and starting.

    Patterns: Love is a pocket passer by fantasy profile — barely a point a game of rushing value — and our rushing-floor rule mostly warns that pocket-passer top-six seasons don't repeat; he hasn't had one, so nothing fires. What the data does say: back-to-back seasons within a tenth of a point of each other is about as sticky as quarterback production gets. The library prices continuation, and continuation here is QB18. The bull case is entirely environmental — and environments aren't base rates.

    The environment, dated: Christian Watson was extended June fourth on a deal reported at up to a hundred 10 and a half million, per AP and the team site. Tucker Kraft tore an ACL November second and is targeting week one — quote, right on schedule, per LaFleur in January via PackersNews. Matthew Golden enters year two as a locked-in starter alongside Jayden Reed, per SI's post-minicamp depth chart, after Romeo Doubs left for New England and Dontayvion Wicks was traded to Philadelphia, per Heavy and Yahoo. Golden's own preview covers the leap question; from Love's seat what matters is that all three receivers return with defined jobs. Green Bay drafted no receiver in April — ESPN covered the decision to stand pat. LaFleur returns with Adam Stenavich coordinating; the position-coach churn (Mannion to Philadelphia, Getsy in as QB coach) doesn't touch the play-calling. Jayden Reed's own extension landed in April — three years, 50 and a quarter million, per the spring reporting — so all three receivers are now paid or drafted into place.

    The price: QB18 at pick one-17 for the QB20-by-rate, QB15-by-total profile — priced for continuation, with the 20-23 ceiling thrown in free. QB18 assumes a matchup streamer; his totals say low-end weekly starter; his rate stats say the market's right. Our verdict: no call. Two flat years at this exact level is the most honest projection a price has made in this batch. The caveat out loud: the front office is betting real money that the ceiling year is the true one — if Kraft is upright in September and Golden jumps, the environment case gets loud fast.

    Watch Kraft's camp designation, and Love's September completion rate — the flat years and the spike year split exactly there. The receivers' health report matters too, but the completion rate is the number that moves first. He's one of your guys? Every player on your roster gets this treatment — every week, all season.

  • 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

    Jordan Love 2025 Season in Review

    0:002:49

    Your episode · 2:49

    Show notes & transcript

    Jordan Love finished 2025 as the number 15 quarterback in total PPR scoring — but the number 21 quarterback in PPR per game among passers with at least six starts. That gap tells the story in one sentence: Love was a quietly efficient real-life quarterback, but for fantasy purposes he was a back-end starter who rarely tilted a week. He played 15 games, the Packers went 9-7-1 and snuck into the playoffs as the seven seed, and Love steered an offense that ranked fourth in the league in total offensive expected points added. The problem for fantasy managers? 'Steady hand' and 'fantasy difference-maker' are not the same job description.

    Now let's dig into the numbers, because this is where the disconnect lives. Love threw for 3,381 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions on 439 attempts — a 66.3 percent completion rate against an expected mark of 62.5, putting his completion percentage over expectation at plus 3.8, fifth-best among qualified passers. His adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.4 also ranked fifth. Top-five quarterback play by the real-football metrics. The volume just wasn't there: 23 passing scores ranked 14th, he added zero rushing touchdowns on 47 carries, and he averaged 15.7 PPR per game. The week-to-week chart is the kicker. Love cleared 25 PPR only three times all year, and posted single-digit outings in four different games — including a 3.8-point dud at Chicago in Week 16 and a 7.1 against Minnesota in a game the Packers won 23 to 6. He wasn't boom-or-bust so much as quietly capped — the floor was usable, the ceiling rarely showed up.

    The shape of Love's fantasy season lives in one Week 13 stat line: 234 yards, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions in a win over the Lions, good for 25.8 PPR. That was the version managers were chasing — surgical, efficient, multi-touchdown — and it showed up maybe three or four times across 15 games. The rest was 180-yard, one-touchdown afternoons on a run-leaning offense where Josh Jacobs vacuumed up the rushing scores with 13, fourth-most in the league. Love did his real-football job at a top-five level. The fantasy job just wasn't on the menu.

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