Interception-worthy throws
An interception-worthy throw is one a charter judged should have been intercepted, whether or not it was. Quarterbacks threw them on 2.7% of dropbacks in 2025; Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins had the highest rate at 4.8%, 20 on 415 dropbacks.
FTN charts every pass for whether it deserved to be intercepted, independent of what became of it. Interception-worthy rate is those throws divided by dropbacks. An interception in a box score requires a defender to catch the ball; this figure does not, which is the whole reason for keeping it separately.
Interception-Worthy Throw Rate — 2026 rankings
| # | Player | IW% | IW | DB | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Herbert | 6.3% | 10 | 159 | Read |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | 5.0% | 11 | 220 | Read |
| 3 | Drake Maye | 4.9% | 8 | 162 | Read |
| 4 | Josh Allen | 4.7% | 7 | 148 | Read |
| 5 | Daniel Jones | 4.3% | 8 | 185 | Read |
| 6 | Bo Nix | 4.2% | 7 | 168 | Read |
| 7 | Sam Darnold | 3.7% | 4 | 107 | Read |
| 8 | Malik Willis | 3.5% | 5 | 143 | Read |
| 9 | Tyler Shough | 3.2% | 7 | 217 | Read |
| 10 | Jordan Love | 3.1% | 6 | 195 | Read |
Why it matters
Defenders drop a great many interceptions, so a quarterback's interception total is part decision-making and part luck, and the two separate slowly. Interception-worthy rate is the half he owns. Quarterbacks threw them on 2.7% of dropbacks in 2025. Over a full season the two figures converge; over a handful of games they do not, so a passer with few interceptions and a high interception-worthy rate has been getting away with something rather than avoiding it.
The counter
It is a judgment about a counterfactual — whether a defender who did not catch the ball could have — and charters differ on it. The rate also says nothing about the throws a quarterback declined to make: a passer who never threatens a tight window sits low here, and may be costing his offense in a way this number cannot see.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- PROE (pass rate over expected)
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
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