Justin Herbert (QB, Los Angeles Chargers) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Oct 6, 2026.

In 2025, Justin Herbert finished QB10 at 17.9 Half-PPR points per game (286.9 total) across 16 games.

Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.

Week 4 — The Take

Herbert completed 19 of 31 for 189 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, ran six times for 40 yards and was sacked four times by the Seahawks, the last a strip-sack at his own 20 with 1:03 left, down seven, that ended the Chargers' final drive, in a 30–23 loss.

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2026 — through Week 4
Scored Half-PPR
Pos. rank
—
Half-PPR / game
17.9
Last game
—
2025
QB10
17.9/g

Where he ranks — 2026

20 leaderboards

What these mean: interception-worthy throw rate · out-of-pocket rate · quarterback-fault sack rate · average time to throw · intended air yards · aggressiveness · man and zone coverage splits · throwaway rate · catchable throw rate · expected points added per dropback · blitz rate faced · completion percentage over expected · deep-ball expected points added per attempt · adjusted net yards per attempt · availability rate · QB composite rating · pressure rate

Compared with

Side-by-side verified 2025 production, and which side rests on inputs that repeat.

Chargers backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.

More episodes

  • Week 3Sep 28, 2026

    Justin Herbert — Week 3: Intercepted at the One, Up Three

    Herbert completed 20 of 34 throws for 226 yards, a touchdown and an interception, and was sacked twice. Up 13–10 early in the fourth, third and 5 at the Buffalo 23, he was intercepted at the 1 and it was returned 41 yards, the largest loss on any Chargers play; Buffalo scored the go-ahead touchdown on the next drive, in a 24–16 loss to the Bills.

  • Week 2Sep 21, 2026

    Justin Herbert — Week 2: Two Interceptions, Both by Masses

    Herbert completed 15 of 27 throws for 192 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, both caught by Hezekiah Masses, and was sacked three times. His 53-yard completion to Tre Harris on third and five set up a 10-yard touchdown to Oronde Gadsden and the Chargers' only lead, and a holding call in his own end zone became a late safety, in a 26–14 loss to the Raiders.

  • Week 1Sep 14, 2026

    Justin Herbert — Week 1: Fourth and Three, Sacked at the Three

    Herbert completed 17 of 27 throws for 209 yards, one touchdown and one interception, was sacked three times, and scrambled five times for 29 yards. The sack on fourth and three at the Arizona three with 2:00 left in the half cost 12 points of win probability, and the Chargers converted two of eight third downs in a 26–14 loss to the Cardinals.

  • Camp · Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026

    Justin Herbert Camp Update — August 31: Sixty-Five Yards in Four Plays

    Herbert closed the preseason with a sixty-five-yard play-action touchdown to Quentin Johnston, going two of three for seventy-four yards on a four-play night. The cutdown answered the questions around him: Trey Lance is the backup, eleven offensive linemen made the roster, and the left guard and center jobs both have names.

  • Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

    Justin Herbert Camp Update — August 23: Three Snaps Behind a Shuffled Line

    Herbert's long-awaited preseason debut lasted one three-and-out — a run for a loss, a nine-yard completion, an incompletion — and the week around it rearranged the line in front of him: Tyler Biadasz out indefinitely, rookie Jake Slaughter named the starting center.

  • Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

    Justin Herbert Camp Update — August 16: A Scratchy Saturday Before the Real Debut

    Herbert sat the preseason opener by design, then had a rough Day Thirteen practice with a deflected pass and a stalled two-minute drive. His first live series in the new offense comes Thursday against San Francisco.

  • 2026 PreviewJun 15, 2026

    Justin Herbert 2026 Season Preview — a new scheme balances a turnover year

    NO CALL — accurate as ever (CPOE 8th) but 13 interceptions and a QB11 finish, priced QB10. The Mike McDaniel scheme upside cancels the turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor risk.

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    Show notes & transcript

    Justin Herbert was accurate as ever last season — and threw 13 interceptions and finished QB11. Now he's got a brand-new offense and a wave of new weapons. The pluses and minuses cancel out almost exactly at his price. The Muffed 2026 preview.

    The 2025 season was a tale of accuracy undone by mistakes: 16 games, 17-nine a game, QB11 per game, on 3700 passing yards and 26 touchdowns — but 13 interceptions, the number that capped him. His completion percentage over expected ranked eighth, genuinely good; his adjusted net yards per attempt only 20-fourth, dragged down by the picks and sacks. The signature was a 30 point, 300-yard, two-score game with a rushing touchdown against Dallas in Week 16. The talent's never been the question.

    The arc is a slide from an elite start: 22 a game in each of his first two seasons, then four straight years in the 16-to-18 range. He's been a good-not-great fantasy quarterback for a while now, and the early ceiling hasn't returned.

    What the data says: he's a pocket passer — about 20 percent rushing share — so he lacks the structural rushing floor that makes the position's safest bets safe, and his fantasy value rides on passing volume and turnovers, the more variable stuff. The accuracy says the talent is intact; the interceptions and the middling efficiency say the production has a leak.

    The situation, per the reports, is the bull case that balances it: Mike McDaniel — the former Dolphins head coach — really is the new coordinator, and he's rebuilt Herbert from the feet up, literally: a footwork change for a quicker release, and a deliberately reduced spring throwing load the team says was workload management, never injury. The investment went to the infrastructure more than the weapons: tight end Charlie Kolar, fullback Alec Ingold, center Tyler Biadasz and a second-round center — protection and ground game, after a season Herbert took 54 sacks. Slater and Alt are both on track for Week One, which would flip the line from weakness to projected strength. The buzz is real — national analysts have floated him as an MVP candidate in this scheme.

    The price: pick 82, QB10. Verdict: NO CALL — he finished QB10-to-11, he's priced QB10, and the price sitting right at his finish is the market fairly weighing the McDaniel-scheme upside against a turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor profile. The counter both ways: if McDaniel unlocks the efficiency behind a healthy line, QB10 is cheap; if the 13 interceptions persist, the price is a touch high. A fair number on a high-variance bet — and one you can wait on at quarterback.

    September watch: the interception rate — the one thing that has to improve; and the protection, because 54 sacks is the number the whole rebuild answers. He's one of your guys? This show covers your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.

  • 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

    Justin Herbert 2025 Season in Review

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    Show notes & transcript

    Justin Herbert finished 2025 as the number 10 quarterback in total PPR scoring and the number 11 quarterback per game. Solid mid-range starter territory — not elite, but firmly in the every-week conversation. The identity of the year? Herbert was a high-volume, high-pressure passer carrying an offense that couldn't get out of its own way, and he made up real fantasy ground with his legs. The Chargers went 11 and 6 and grabbed a wild card, but the offense as a whole graded as a bottom-10 unit by expected points added — Herbert was the reason they scored, not a passenger on a humming machine. He took 54 sacks in 16 games behind a bottom-third pass-protection unit and still pushed the ball downfield for top-10 touchdown volume.

    Now let's dig into the numbers. Herbert threw for 3,727 yards on 512 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions — that touchdown total tied for eighth in the league. He completed 66.4 percent against an expected completion rate of 63.1, putting his completion percentage over expectation at plus 3.3 — eighth among qualified passers, which tells you the accuracy was genuinely above the bar for the difficulty of his throws. The rushing profile is what separates him from a replacement-level passer: 83 carries, 498 yards at 6.0 a pop, plus 2 scores on the ground. But the efficiency drag is real. His adjusted net yards per attempt was 5.9, 24th among qualified starters — that's the sack tax showing up. And the week-to-week was boom-or-bust underneath a 17.9 PPR average: four games of 25-plus, but also six games under 15, including a 3.3-point disaster against the Jaguars and back-to-back single-digit weeks midseason. The ceiling weeks tilted leagues. The floor weeks were unstartable.

    The defining stat for Herbert's fantasy year isn't a single play — it's the gap between his individual numbers and his team's offensive context. The Chargers ranked 30th in red-zone touchdown rate at 52.2 percent, bottom 10 at turning trips inside the 20 into six. For a quarterback ranked eighth in passing touchdowns inside that environment, the takeaway is clear: Herbert was creating scores on volume and downfield connections, not easy red-zone layups. The 60-yard touchdown bomb to Quentin Johnston against the Raiders in Week 2 was the template — explosive plays were the engine. When they hit, Herbert smashed your weekly score. When they didn't, the offense bogged down and he got muffed.

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