Justin Herbert (QB, Los Angeles Chargers) — 2026 fantasy outlook, updated Jun 15, 2026.
In 2025, Justin Herbert finished QB10 at 17.9 Half-PPR points per game (286.9 total) across 16 games.
Muffed's 2026 take on Justin Herbert: The Mike McDaniel scheme upside cancels the turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor risk.
Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
The Mike McDaniel scheme upside cancels the turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor risk.
When Justin Herbert's week moves the numbers, you'll know — every episode, in one weekly email.
Justin Herbert Camp Update — August 31: Sixty-Five Yards in Four Plays
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2025: 3,727 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 13 INTs; 498 rushing yards on 83 carries, 2 rushing TDs (16 games)
Where he ranks — 2025
- #6Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- #10Completion Percentage Over Expected
- #10Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- #10Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- #11QB Composite Rating
- #16Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- #18Quarterback Deep Ball
- #20Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- #21Clean-Core Rating
- #24Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- #30Availability
- #31Quarterback Pressure Rate
- #94Goal-Line Usage
- #123Usage vs Production
Compared with
Side-by-side verified 2025 production, and which side rests on inputs that repeat.
Chargers backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.
More episodes
- Camp · Aug 23, 2026
Justin Herbert Camp Update — August 23: Three Snaps Behind a Shuffled Line
Herbert's long-awaited preseason debut lasted one three-and-out — a run for a loss, a nine-yard completion, an incompletion — and the week around it rearranged the line in front of him: Tyler Biadasz out indefinitely, rookie Jake Slaughter named the starting center.
- Camp · Aug 16, 2026
Justin Herbert Camp Update — August 16: A Scratchy Saturday Before the Real Debut
Herbert sat the preseason opener by design, then had a rough Day Thirteen practice with a deflected pass and a stalled two-minute drive. His first live series in the new offense comes Thursday against San Francisco.
- 2026 Preview
Justin Herbert 2026 Season Preview — a new scheme balances a turnover year
NO CALL — accurate as ever (CPOE 8th) but 13 interceptions and a QB11 finish, priced QB10. The Mike McDaniel scheme upside cancels the turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor risk.
Show notes & transcript
Justin Herbert was accurate as ever last season — and threw 13 interceptions and finished QB11. Now he's got a brand-new offense and a wave of new weapons. The pluses and minuses cancel out almost exactly at his price. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was a tale of accuracy undone by mistakes: 16 games, 17-nine a game, QB11 per game, on 3700 passing yards and 26 touchdowns — but 13 interceptions, the number that capped him. His completion percentage over expected ranked eighth, genuinely good; his adjusted net yards per attempt only 20-fourth, dragged down by the picks and sacks. The signature was a 30 point, 300-yard, two-score game with a rushing touchdown against Dallas in Week 16. The talent's never been the question.
The arc is a slide from an elite start: 22 a game in each of his first two seasons, then four straight years in the 16-to-18 range. He's been a good-not-great fantasy quarterback for a while now, and the early ceiling hasn't returned.
What the data says: he's a pocket passer — about 20 percent rushing share — so he lacks the structural rushing floor that makes the position's safest bets safe, and his fantasy value rides on passing volume and turnovers, the more variable stuff. The accuracy says the talent is intact; the interceptions and the middling efficiency say the production has a leak.
The situation, per the reports, is the bull case that balances it: Mike McDaniel — the former Dolphins head coach — really is the new coordinator, and he's rebuilt Herbert from the feet up, literally: a footwork change for a quicker release, and a deliberately reduced spring throwing load the team says was workload management, never injury. The investment went to the infrastructure more than the weapons: tight end Charlie Kolar, fullback Alec Ingold, center Tyler Biadasz and a second-round center — protection and ground game, after a season Herbert took 54 sacks. Slater and Alt are both on track for Week One, which would flip the line from weakness to projected strength. The buzz is real — national analysts have floated him as an MVP candidate in this scheme.
The price: pick 82, QB10. Verdict: NO CALL — he finished QB10-to-11, he's priced QB10, and the price sitting right at his finish is the market fairly weighing the McDaniel-scheme upside against a turnover-prone, no-rushing-floor profile. The counter both ways: if McDaniel unlocks the efficiency behind a healthy line, QB10 is cheap; if the 13 interceptions persist, the price is a touch high. A fair number on a high-variance bet — and one you can wait on at quarterback.
September watch: the interception rate — the one thing that has to improve; and the protection, because 54 sacks is the number the whole rebuild answers. He's one of your guys? This show covers your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.
- 2025 Review
Justin Herbert 2025 Season in Review
Show notes & transcript
Justin Herbert finished 2025 as the number 10 quarterback in total PPR scoring and the number 11 quarterback per game. Solid mid-range starter territory — not elite, but firmly in the every-week conversation. The identity of the year? Herbert was a high-volume, high-pressure passer carrying an offense that couldn't get out of its own way, and he made up real fantasy ground with his legs. The Chargers went 11 and 6 and grabbed a wild card, but the offense as a whole graded as a bottom-10 unit by expected points added — Herbert was the reason they scored, not a passenger on a humming machine. He took 54 sacks in 16 games behind a bottom-third pass-protection unit and still pushed the ball downfield for top-10 touchdown volume.
Now let's dig into the numbers. Herbert threw for 3,727 yards on 512 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions — that touchdown total tied for eighth in the league. He completed 66.4 percent against an expected completion rate of 63.1, putting his completion percentage over expectation at plus 3.3 — eighth among qualified passers, which tells you the accuracy was genuinely above the bar for the difficulty of his throws. The rushing profile is what separates him from a replacement-level passer: 83 carries, 498 yards at 6.0 a pop, plus 2 scores on the ground. But the efficiency drag is real. His adjusted net yards per attempt was 5.9, 24th among qualified starters — that's the sack tax showing up. And the week-to-week was boom-or-bust underneath a 17.9 PPR average: four games of 25-plus, but also six games under 15, including a 3.3-point disaster against the Jaguars and back-to-back single-digit weeks midseason. The ceiling weeks tilted leagues. The floor weeks were unstartable.
The defining stat for Herbert's fantasy year isn't a single play — it's the gap between his individual numbers and his team's offensive context. The Chargers ranked 30th in red-zone touchdown rate at 52.2 percent, bottom 10 at turning trips inside the 20 into six. For a quarterback ranked eighth in passing touchdowns inside that environment, the takeaway is clear: Herbert was creating scores on volume and downfield connections, not easy red-zone layups. The 60-yard touchdown bomb to Quentin Johnston against the Raiders in Week 2 was the template — explosive plays were the engine. When they hit, Herbert smashed your weekly score. When they didn't, the offense bogged down and he got muffed.
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