PROE (pass rate over expected)
PROE is how much more often a team passed than the game situation called for. The Chiefs led 2025 at +4.6 percentage points over expected; the Ravens were last at -8.2.
A model estimates the league-average pass rate for each situation — down, distance, score, time — and PROE is the team's actual pass rate minus that expectation. Positive means pass-first beyond what the scoreboard demanded. It strips out the fact that losing teams throw more.
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2026 leaders
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | +5.6 | 64.7% | 64.3% | 153 | Read |
| 2 | Carolina Panthers | +4.9 | 63.5% | 63.3% | 189 | Read |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +4.9 | 63.9% | 67.2% | 180 | Read |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | +4.0 | 61.0% | 67.7% | 182 | Read |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | +3.8 | 59.9% | 67.0% | 147 | Read |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | +3.8 | 53.7% | 54.3% | 175 | Read |
| 7 | San Francisco 49ers | +2.8 | 54.2% | 52.2% | 155 | Read |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | +1.4 | 63.5% | 64.6% | 203 | Read |
| 9 | New England Patriots | +0.8 | 51.0% | 54.3% | 200 | Read |
| 10 | Houston Texans | +0.7 | 57.3% | 62.2% | 206 | Read |
Why it matters
PROE is the stickiest thing a team does. Across 288 team-season pairs from 2016 to 2025 it correlated 0.455 year over year — higher than offensive expected points per play at 0.389 and far higher than win percentage at 0.369. Coaches change personnel every year and keep their instincts, which makes last season's PROE one of the better predictors of how many pass-game opportunities an offense will create. It sets the size of the pie, not the slices.
The counter
A new coordinator resets it, and PROE says nothing about who catches the passes.
More football stats explained
- EPA (expected points added)
- EPA per dropback
- Success rate
- CPOE (completion percentage over expected)
- ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt)
- RYOE (rushing yards over expected)
- Target share
- Air yards share
- WOPR (weighted opportunity rating)
- aDOT (average depth of target)
- YAC over expected
- Separation
- Pressure rate
- Blitz rate
- Man and zone coverage splits
- Stacked box rate
- Half-PPR (and how it differs from full PPR)
- The usage gap (snaps versus production)
- Pythagorean wins
- Stickiness (what repeats and what does not)
- Snap share
- Pass-snap share
- YPRR (yards per route run)
- Availability (the “stayed” rate)
- Handcuff
- Play-action rate
- Pre-snap motion rate
- Drop rate
- Contested catch rate
- Interception-worthy throws
- Quarterback-fault sacks
- Intended air yards (IAY)
- Deep ball rate
- QB Composite Rating
- Screen pass rate
- No-huddle rate
- RPO rate
- Light box rate
- Throwaway rate
- Catchable throw rate
- Out-of-pocket rate
- Time to throw
- Aggressiveness
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