PROE (pass rate over expected)
PROE is how much more often a team passed than the game situation called for. The Chiefs led 2025 at +4.6 percentage points over expected; the Ravens were last at -8.2.
A model estimates the league-average pass rate for each situation — down, distance, score, time — and PROE is the team's actual pass rate minus that expectation. Positive means pass-first beyond what the scoreboard demanded. It strips out the fact that losing teams throw more.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
Current leaders — 2025
| # | Team | PROE | Pass EPA | Rush EPA | Off EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +4.6 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 0.04 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | +4.2 | 0.02 | -0.14 | -0.01 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | +3.5 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | +2.9 | 0.30 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | +2.1 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | +2.1 | 0.11 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +2.0 | 0.08 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | +0.7 | 0.00 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.2 | 0.16 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.2 | 0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 |
See the full pass rate over expected leaderboard — Kansas City Chiefs leads.
Why it matters
PROE is the stickiest thing a team does. Across 288 team-season pairs from 2016 to 2025 it correlated 0.455 year over year — higher than offensive expected points per play at 0.389 and far higher than win percentage at 0.369. Coaches change personnel every year and keep their instincts, which makes last season's PROE one of the better predictors of how many pass-game opportunities an offense will create. It sets the size of the pie, not the slices.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
The counter
A new coordinator resets it, and PROE says nothing about who catches the passes.
Updated Jul 26, 2026
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