Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2025 NFL leaders, updated Jul 26, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +4.6, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume.
| # | Team | PROE | Pass EPA | Rush EPA | Off EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +4.6 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 0.04 |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | +4.2 | 0.02 | -0.14 | -0.01 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | +3.5 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| 4 | New England Patriots | +2.9 | 0.30 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | +2.1 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | +2.1 | 0.11 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +2.0 | 0.08 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | +0.7 | 0.00 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.2 | 0.16 | -0.01 | 0.11 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.2 | 0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 |
| 11 | Houston Texans | -0.4 | 0.06 | -0.15 | -0.01 |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | -0.5 | 0.17 | -0.03 | 0.09 |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.6 | -0.15 | -0.06 | -0.09 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.7 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| 15 | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.7 | -0.17 | -0.31 | -0.19 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | -2.0 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.03 |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | -2.3 | -0.05 | -0.15 | -0.08 |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.8 | 0.04 | -0.09 | 0.00 |
| 19 | Washington Commanders | -3.1 | 0.04 | -0.04 | 0.03 |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | -3.2 | -0.25 | -0.11 | -0.18 |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | -3.2 | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.15 |
| 22 | Buffalo Bills | -3.3 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| 23 | Chicago Bears | -3.3 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| 24 | Green Bay Packers | -3.5 | 0.26 | -0.08 | 0.12 |
| 25 | New York Giants | -4.1 | 0.04 | -0.04 | 0.04 |
| 26 | Detroit Lions | -4.3 | 0.17 | -0.07 | 0.07 |
| 27 | Miami Dolphins | -5.2 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.02 |
| 28 | Carolina Panthers | -5.3 | -0.03 | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| 29 | Atlanta Falcons | -5.6 | 0.01 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| 30 | Seattle Seahawks | -6.1 | 0.12 | -0.08 | 0.04 |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens | -8.2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| 32 | New York Jets | -8.2 | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.12 |
New to this stat? What pass rate over expected means.
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Market vs Reality
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
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