Week 5
The Bengals are still first at +5.6 pass rate over expected (PROE), how much more often an offense throws than the down, distance and score predict, after +5.5 in a 31-24 win in Miami. The Steelers went from fourth to second at +4.4 after +5.7 in a 34-22 win over the Colts, and the Panthers are third at +4.2 after their bye. The Cardinals had the week's highest single-game mark, +7.1 in a 45-21 loss to the Lions, and went from 13th to ninth at +1.4; the Rams went from 10th to eighth on +6.9 against the Bills, and the Patriots from 12th to 10th on +6.2 against the Raiders. The Dolphins had the week's lowest, -19.8 against the Bengals, and went from 30th to last at -11.5; the Chargers went from 29th to 31st after -18.4 against the Broncos. The Saints went from eighth to 13th after -12.5 in a 23-13 loss to the Vikings, and the Giants from 31st to 29th at -6.1. Eight of last week's top ten are still in it, with the Saints and Browns out, and 14 teams are above zero, three more than after Week 4. Every team has 108 neutral-script snaps or more, and a single game still moved the Saints five places.
Week 4
The Bengals went from fourth to first at +5.6 pass rate over expected (PROE), how much more often an offense throws than the down, distance and score predict, after +8.4 in a 22-17 loss to the Jaguars. The Panthers had the week's highest single-game mark, +10.7 against the Lions, and went from eighth to second at +4.2. The Steelers, first a week ago, are tied with the Cowboys at +4.1 after +0.8 in Thursday night's loss in Cleveland. The Rams went from 14th to 10th on +4.2 in Philadelphia, and the Patriots from 20th to 12th on +4.2 in Buffalo. The 49ers went from third to fifth after -1.3 against the Broncos. The Chargers had the week's lowest, -13.9 against the Seahawks, and the Falcons are still last at -10.3 after -7.7 in a 45-24 win in New Orleans. Eight of last week's top ten are still in it; the Cardinals and Bills left. 11 teams are above zero, one more than after Week 3. Every team has 89 neutral-script snaps or more, and a single game still moved New England eight places.
Week 3
The Steelers are first again at plus 5.2 pass rate over expected after a plus 6.2 against the Bengals; they throw on 67 percent of their neutral-script snaps, also first in the league. The Cowboys went from first to second, plus 8.7 to plus 5.1, after a minus 0.4 against the Ravens. The Packers went from 18th to seventh on Thursday night: plus 11.6 against the Falcons took them from minus 2.7 to plus 2.2. The Bills went the other way, from second to 10th, after a minus 11.6 against the Chargers cut them from plus 6.6 to plus 0.4. The Seahawks went from 28th to 18th on a plus 10.4 against the Commanders, and the Ravens from 14th to 26th on a minus 14.2 against the Cowboys. Nine of last week's top ten are still in the top ten; the Texans left. Ten teams are above zero. Every team has at least 63 neutral-script snaps, yet a single game still moved three teams ten or more places; three games is a small sample of how a staff wants to call it.
Week 2
The Cowboys are first at plus 8.7 pass rate over expected, throwing on 61 percent of their neutral-script snaps; the Bills are second at plus 6.6 while throwing on 49 percent of theirs, 27th in the league by that measure, which is the point of the stat: the expectation prices in down, distance and score. The Steelers, who led after Week 1 at plus 11.2, are third at plus 4.8 and still pass on 67 percent of neutral snaps. The Titans, second a week ago at plus 5.8 on 20 neutral snaps, are minus 7.4 on 48 now, in a tie for 26th. The Rams went from 31st to 22nd Monday night against the Giants, minus 14.8 to minus 4.7. Seven of last week's top ten are still in the top ten. A week ago thirteen teams had fewer than 25 neutral-script snaps to be measured on, the Bengals third on nine of them; no team is under 36 now, so this board is only starting to describe a tendency rather than a game script.