Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2025 NFL leaders, updated Sep 3, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +4.6, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2025 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Listen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +4.6 | 55.8% | 60.2% | 566 | |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | +4.2 | 62.2% | 66.1% | 452 | |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | +3.5 | 59.8% | 58.4% | 510 | |
| 4 | New England Patriots | +2.9 | 54.9% | 54.2% | 510 | |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | +2.1 | 61.3% | 64.5% | 511 | |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | +2.1 | 57.2% | 59.3% | 556 | |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +2.0 | 57.6% | 56.1% | 472 | |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | +0.7 | 57.6% | 57.9% | 495 | |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboys | -0.2 | 55.7% | 59.3% | 539 | |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.2 | 56.7% | 59.5% | 543 | |
| 11 | Houston Texans | -0.4 | 56.0% | 57.1% | 516 | |
| 12 | San Francisco 49ers | -0.5 | 53.2% | 56.6% | 517 | |
| 13 | Minnesota Vikings | -0.6 | 53.3% | 58.0% | 482 | |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | -0.7 | 57.8% | 57.4% | 519 | |
| 15 | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.7 | 56.7% | 61.4% | 480 | |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | -2.0 | 51.4% | 53.5% | 486 | |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | -2.3 | 52.7% | 59.7% | 526 | |
| 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.8 | 50.1% | 56.4% | 571 | |
| 19 | Washington Commanders | -3.1 | 49.3% | 51.5% | 458 | |
| 20 | Cleveland Browns | -3.2 | 50.9% | 59.2% | 495 | |
| 21 | Tennessee Titans | -3.2 | 53.3% | 62.6% | 437 | |
| 22 | Buffalo Bills | -3.3 | 50.6% | 51.0% | 482 | |
| 23 | Chicago Bears | -3.3 | 52.0% | 54.7% | 550 | |
| 24 | Green Bay Packers | -3.5 | 50.2% | 52.3% | 560 | |
| 25 | New York Giants | -4.1 | 49.9% | 53.4% | 511 | |
| 26 | Detroit Lions | -4.3 | 54.1% | 58.9% | 532 | |
| 27 | Miami Dolphins | -5.2 | 51.9% | 55.0% | 385 | |
| 28 | Carolina Panthers | -5.3 | 49.9% | 55.3% | 499 | |
| 29 | Atlanta Falcons | -5.6 | 54.1% | 55.1% | 543 | |
| 30 | Seattle Seahawks | -6.1 | 51.7% | 50.8% | 441 | |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens | -8.2 | 46.7% | 48.7% | 480 | |
| 32 | New York Jets | -8.2 | 44.2% | 55.1% | 391 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
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