2026 season · All 32 offenses

Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders

Name: Pass Rate Over Expected — 2026 NFL Leaders
Creator: Muffed
License: https://muffed.ai/methodology

Through Week 6 · Sunday, Sunday night and Monday night pending

Pass Rate Over Expected — 2026 NFL leaders, updated Oct 16, 2026. Cincinnati Bengals led the league in pass rate over expected at +5.6, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2026 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through Week 6 of the 2026 season, with Sunday, Sunday night and Monday night still to come.

Which team led in pass rate over expected in 2026?Which team led in neutral pass rate in 2026?Which team led in pass rate in 2026?

Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.

Pass Rate Over Expected, 2026 NFL season
#	Team	Δ WK	G	PROE	Neutral Pass%	Pass%	Neutral Plays	Read
1	Cincinnati Bengals	No change; did not play this week	5	+5.6	64.7%	64.3%	153	Read
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	No change	5	+4.4	65.2%	66.2%	161	Read
3	Carolina Panthers	No change	4	+4.2	63.0%	64.9%	146	Read
4	Dallas Cowboys	No change	5	+3.8	60.5%	65.1%	167	Read
5	Green Bay Packers	No change	5	+2.9	58.6%	67.6%	128	Read
6	San Francisco 49ers	No change	5	+2.9	52.3%	52.3%	132	Read
7	Kansas City Chiefs	No change	4	+2.8	52.9%	54.2%	153	Read
8	Los Angeles Rams	No change	5	+2.3	64.1%	64.6%	167	Read
9	Arizona Cardinals	No change	5	+1.4	55.3%	63.8%	161	Read
10	New England Patriots	No change	5	+1.3	52.1%	54.0%	144	Read
11	Cleveland Browns	No change	5	+1.1	56.8%	58.5%	132	Read
12	Detroit Lions	No change; did not play this week	5	+0.4	60.6%	61.2%	137	Read
13	New Orleans Saints	No change	5	+0.3	56.0%	65.3%	150	Read
14	Houston Texans	No change	5	+0.2	56.1%	63.0%	173	Read
15	Buffalo Bills	No change	5	-1.4	52.4%	51.5%	143	Read
16	Indianapolis Colts	No change	5	-2.1	59.4%	57.8%	180	Read
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	No change	5	-2.1	47.2%	55.8%	159	Read
18	Washington Commanders	No change	5	-2.1	51.0%	54.5%	157	Read
19	Chicago Bears	No change	5	-2.2	46.5%	50.6%	170	Read
20	Denver Broncos	Up 2 places, from 22	6	-2.5	56.5%	58.2%	177	Read
21	Las Vegas Raiders	Down 1 place, from 20	5	-2.5	59.6%	59.3%	161	Read
22	Minnesota Vikings	Down 1 place, from 21; did not play this week	5	-2.6	50.8%	52.0%	179	Read
23	New York Jets	No change	5	-2.9	54.1%	56.6%	172	Read
24	Jacksonville Jaguars	No change	5	-3.2	57.3%	53.1%	131	Read
25	Seattle Seahawks	Up 1 place, from 26	6	-4.2	52.8%	56.8%	180	Read
26	Philadelphia Eagles	Down 1 place, from 25	5	-4.3	56.2%	58.5%	176	Read
27	Baltimore Ravens	No change	5	-4.4	46.0%	48.4%	139	Read
28	Tennessee Titans	No change	5	-5.3	50.0%	60.6%	108	Read
29	New York Giants	No change	5	-6.1	50.0%	55.7%	140	Read
30	Atlanta Falcons	No change	5	-8.5	45.5%	47.6%	156	Read
31	Los Angeles Chargers	No change	5	-10.8	42.9%	52.1%	177	Read
32	Miami Dolphins	No change; did not play this week	5	-11.5	48.6%	52.6%	140	Read

New to this stat? What pass rate over expected means.

The read — Week 5

The Bengals are still first at +5.6 pass rate over expected (PROE), how much more often an offense throws than the down, distance and score predict, after +5.5 in a 31-24 win in Miami. The Steelers went from fourth to second at +4.4 after +5.7 in a 34-22 win over the Colts, and the Panthers are third at +4.2 after their bye. The Cardinals had the week's highest single-game mark, +7.1 in a 45-21 loss to the Lions, and went from 13th to ninth at +1.4; the Rams went from 10th to eighth on +6.9 against the Bills, and the Patriots from 12th to 10th on +6.2 against the Raiders. The Dolphins had the week's lowest, -19.8 against the Bengals, and went from 30th to last at -11.5; the Chargers went from 29th to 31st after -18.4 against the Broncos. The Saints went from eighth to 13th after -12.5 in a 23-13 loss to the Vikings, and the Giants from 31st to 29th at -6.1. Eight of last week's top ten are still in it, with the Saints and Browns out, and 14 teams are above zero, three more than after Week 4. Every team has 108 neutral-script snaps or more, and a single game still moved the Saints five places.

Updated Oct 13, 2026

Earlier weeks on this board — 2026(3 weeks)

Week 4

The Bengals went from fourth to first at +5.6 pass rate over expected (PROE), how much more often an offense throws than the down, distance and score predict, after +8.4 in a 22-17 loss to the Jaguars. The Panthers had the week's highest single-game mark, +10.7 against the Lions, and went from eighth to second at +4.2. The Steelers, first a week ago, are tied with the Cowboys at +4.1 after +0.8 in Thursday night's loss in Cleveland. The Rams went from 14th to 10th on +4.2 in Philadelphia, and the Patriots from 20th to 12th on +4.2 in Buffalo. The 49ers went from third to fifth after -1.3 against the Broncos. The Chargers had the week's lowest, -13.9 against the Seahawks, and the Falcons are still last at -10.3 after -7.7 in a 45-24 win in New Orleans. Eight of last week's top ten are still in it; the Cardinals and Bills left. 11 teams are above zero, one more than after Week 3. Every team has 89 neutral-script snaps or more, and a single game still moved New England eight places.

Week 3

The Steelers are first again at plus 5.2 pass rate over expected after a plus 6.2 against the Bengals; they throw on 67 percent of their neutral-script snaps, also first in the league. The Cowboys went from first to second, plus 8.7 to plus 5.1, after a minus 0.4 against the Ravens. The Packers went from 18th to seventh on Thursday night: plus 11.6 against the Falcons took them from minus 2.7 to plus 2.2. The Bills went the other way, from second to 10th, after a minus 11.6 against the Chargers cut them from plus 6.6 to plus 0.4. The Seahawks went from 28th to 18th on a plus 10.4 against the Commanders, and the Ravens from 14th to 26th on a minus 14.2 against the Cowboys. Nine of last week's top ten are still in the top ten; the Texans left. Ten teams are above zero. Every team has at least 63 neutral-script snaps, yet a single game still moved three teams ten or more places; three games is a small sample of how a staff wants to call it.

Week 2

The Cowboys are first at plus 8.7 pass rate over expected, throwing on 61 percent of their neutral-script snaps; the Bills are second at plus 6.6 while throwing on 49 percent of theirs, 27th in the league by that measure, which is the point of the stat: the expectation prices in down, distance and score. The Steelers, who led after Week 1 at plus 11.2, are third at plus 4.8 and still pass on 67 percent of neutral snaps. The Titans, second a week ago at plus 5.8 on 20 neutral snaps, are minus 7.4 on 48 now, in a tie for 26th. The Rams went from 31st to 22nd Monday night against the Giants, minus 14.8 to minus 4.7. Seven of last week's top ten are still in the top ten. A week ago thirteen teams had fewer than 25 neutral-script snaps to be measured on, the Bengals third on nine of them; no team is under 36 now, so this board is only starting to describe a tendency rather than a game script.

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