Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2016 NFL leaders, updated Aug 13, 2026. Green Bay Packers led the league in pass rate over expected at +9.0, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2016 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2016 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | +9.0 | 63.8% | 64.7% | 527 |
| 2 | Indianapolis Colts | +4.6 | 57.0% | 61.6% | 465 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | +4.0 | 60.9% | 66.6% | 514 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | +3.8 | 59.3% | 64.8% | 504 |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | +3.1 | 59.6% | 58.5% | 448 |
| 6 | Seattle Seahawks | +2.8 | 57.1% | 61.1% | 448 |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | +2.3 | 61.2% | 63.1% | 523 |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | +2.2 | 58.9% | 63.8% | 526 |
| 9 | Minnesota Vikings | +1.5 | 61.1% | 63.1% | 440 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | +1.4 | 57.0% | 60.6% | 442 |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +1.4 | 54.1% | 63.1% | 501 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | +1.2 | 57.0% | 59.6% | 351 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +0.8 | 57.8% | 61.2% | 467 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Chargers | +0.7 | 60.4% | 61.1% | 503 |
| 15 | New England Patriots | +0.7 | 57.3% | 55.4% | 433 |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | +0.6 | 56.2% | 63.7% | 509 |
| 17 | New York Giants | +0.6 | 59.8% | 61.9% | 533 |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | +0.4 | 58.4% | 64.6% | 438 |
| 19 | Las Vegas Raiders | +0.2 | 61.4% | 59.8% | 516 |
| 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -0.1 | 53.0% | 58.6% | 545 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Rams | -1.1 | 58.1% | 61.5% | 470 |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | -1.4 | 55.4% | 59.9% | 500 |
| 23 | Cincinnati Bengals | -1.5 | 55.0% | 57.9% | 498 |
| 24 | Chicago Bears | -1.9 | 53.6% | 61.1% | 440 |
| 25 | New York Jets | -2.2 | 54.2% | 58.6% | 478 |
| 26 | Houston Texans | -2.5 | 51.8% | 58.0% | 527 |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | -2.6 | 50.4% | 51.4% | 530 |
| 28 | Carolina Panthers | -2.8 | 53.5% | 57.3% | 404 |
| 29 | Buffalo Bills | -3.8 | 49.6% | 51.6% | 470 |
| 30 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.2 | 44.9% | 54.3% | 437 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | -5.5 | 48.8% | 55.8% | 434 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | -5.9 | 45.8% | 53.4% | 365 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
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