Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2019 NFL leaders, updated Aug 13, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +8.8, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2019 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2019 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +8.8 | 66.7% | 62.6% | 480 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | +5.8 | 60.9% | 66.5% | 440 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | +4.3 | 59.6% | 60.9% | 502 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | +3.3 | 60.0% | 61.1% | 425 |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | +2.9 | 59.6% | 67.8% | 451 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | +2.9 | 61.3% | 62.6% | 522 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2.9 | 58.0% | 63.2% | 495 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | +1.7 | 59.7% | 64.4% | 422 |
| 9 | New York Giants | +1.7 | 59.2% | 64.7% | 475 |
| 10 | Houston Texans | +1.5 | 56.2% | 57.9% | 537 |
| 11 | New England Patriots | +0.6 | 59.6% | 60.1% | 492 |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | +0.5 | 60.9% | 61.0% | 514 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | +0.5 | 59.8% | 61.6% | 483 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +0.4 | 54.4% | 62.8% | 421 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 0.0 | 59.1% | 60.0% | 443 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.0 | 57.2% | 59.3% | 537 |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.3 | 57.9% | 63.7% | 473 |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.9 | 57.5% | 63.5% | 461 |
| 19 | New York Jets | -1.0 | 54.7% | 60.8% | 395 |
| 20 | Buffalo Bills | -1.3 | 55.1% | 54.9% | 526 |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 | 55.5% | 58.8% | 494 |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | -1.6 | 52.1% | 54.7% | 499 |
| 23 | Dallas Cowboys | -2.0 | 55.8% | 58.5% | 500 |
| 24 | Denver Broncos | -2.0 | 54.6% | 57.7% | 399 |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | -2.0 | 52.4% | 60.5% | 531 |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | -3.7 | 54.3% | 56.2% | 460 |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | -4.0 | 52.5% | 60.1% | 394 |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | -5.0 | 47.9% | 54.3% | 528 |
| 29 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.1 | 53.9% | 51.9% | 464 |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -5.6 | 52.8% | 53.9% | 451 |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens | -7.5 | 43.4% | 44.8% | 449 |
| 32 | Minnesota Vikings | -7.9 | 54.4% | 51.8% | 417 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
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