Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2019 NFL leaders, updated Sep 29, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +8.8, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2019 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2019 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Listen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +8.8 | 66.7% | 62.6% | 480 | |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | +5.8 | 60.9% | 66.5% | 440 | |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | +4.3 | 59.6% | 60.9% | 502 | |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | +3.3 | 60.0% | 61.1% | 425 | |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | +2.9 | 59.6% | 67.8% | 451 | |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | +2.9 | 61.3% | 62.6% | 522 | |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2.9 | 58.0% | 63.2% | 495 | |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | +1.7 | 59.7% | 64.4% | 422 | |
| 9 | New York Giants | +1.7 | 59.2% | 64.7% | 475 | |
| 10 | Houston Texans | +1.5 | 56.2% | 57.9% | 537 | |
| 11 | New England Patriots | +0.6 | 59.6% | 60.1% | 492 | |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | +0.5 | 60.9% | 61.0% | 514 | |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | +0.5 | 59.8% | 61.6% | 483 | |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +0.4 | 54.4% | 62.8% | 421 | |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 0.0 | 59.1% | 60.0% | 443 | |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles | 0.0 | 57.2% | 59.3% | 537 | |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.3 | 57.9% | 63.7% | 473 | |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.9 | 57.5% | 63.5% | 461 | |
| 19 | New York Jets | -1.0 | 54.7% | 60.8% | 395 | |
| 20 | Buffalo Bills | -1.3 | 55.1% | 54.9% | 526 | |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1.5 | 55.5% | 58.8% | 494 | |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | -1.6 | 52.1% | 54.7% | 499 | |
| 23 | Dallas Cowboys | -2.0 | 55.8% | 58.5% | 500 | |
| 24 | Denver Broncos | -2.0 | 54.6% | 57.7% | 399 | |
| 25 | Detroit Lions | -2.0 | 52.4% | 60.5% | 531 | |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | -3.7 | 54.3% | 56.2% | 460 | |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | -4.0 | 52.5% | 60.1% | 394 | |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | -5.0 | 47.9% | 54.3% | 528 | |
| 29 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.1 | 53.9% | 51.9% | 464 | |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -5.6 | 52.8% | 53.9% | 451 | |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens | -7.5 | 43.4% | 44.8% | 449 | |
| 32 | Minnesota Vikings | -7.9 | 54.4% | 51.8% | 417 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
Follow the football you care about. Players, teams, stat boards — press Follow on any of them, and that is what your weekly email is made of. Nothing you didn't ask for.
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.