Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2023 NFL leaders, updated Aug 13, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +6.9, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2023 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2023 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +6.9 | 61.4% | 62.7% | 547 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | +6.2 | 64.6% | 64.4% | 531 |
| 3 | Washington Commanders | +6.1 | 63.5% | 66.3% | 468 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | +3.6 | 60.0% | 59.5% | 458 |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +3.0 | 55.7% | 60.3% | 517 |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | +2.7 | 57.3% | 63.6% | 536 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | +1.5 | 57.4% | 61.6% | 577 |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | +1.2 | 56.7% | 55.2% | 547 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | +1.1 | 58.5% | 62.2% | 545 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | +0.6 | 54.1% | 58.8% | 495 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | +0.3 | 53.0% | 50.3% | 508 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | -0.5 | 55.5% | 54.6% | 551 |
| 13 | New York Jets | -0.9 | 54.9% | 63.3% | 466 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | -1.2 | 61.2% | 57.6% | 464 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.3 | 57.2% | 59.4% | 545 |
| 16 | Houston Texans | -1.9 | 54.4% | 59.0% | 517 |
| 17 | New York Giants | -1.9 | 52.6% | 57.2% | 473 |
| 18 | Las Vegas Raiders | -2.0 | 55.9% | 59.9% | 481 |
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.0 | 53.7% | 52.3% | 462 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Rams | -2.1 | 57.6% | 56.7% | 526 |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints | -2.5 | 56.6% | 58.3% | 548 |
| 22 | Cleveland Browns | -2.9 | 56.8% | 56.5% | 528 |
| 23 | Denver Broncos | -3.2 | 50.7% | 56.3% | 436 |
| 24 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.4 | 55.3% | 57.0% | 564 |
| 25 | New England Patriots | -3.5 | 57.2% | 59.5% | 528 |
| 26 | Detroit Lions | -3.6 | 53.8% | 57.1% | 496 |
| 27 | Chicago Bears | -4.5 | 50.2% | 52.0% | 492 |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | -4.6 | 52.6% | 56.4% | 511 |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | -4.8 | 52.4% | 59.5% | 538 |
| 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.3 | 49.5% | 53.8% | 535 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -5.7 | 50.6% | 56.2% | 510 |
| 32 | Atlanta Falcons | -9.2 | 52.0% | 52.5% | 567 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
The weekly insights email. One story a week about what actually happened in the NFL — every number verified.
Get the story behind the numbers
The same AI that built these tables reads every play of every game and tells you what actually happened — as pages you can read and shows you can listen to, from this same verified data.
Drafting this month? Follow the guys you end up with, and your first weekly email lands Week 1 — the real plays and the real numbers behind everyone on your list.
Follow your guys — free →Ask this data a question
Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.