Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2023 NFL leaders, updated Sep 29, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +6.9, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2023 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2023 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Listen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +6.9 | 61.4% | 62.7% | 547 | |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | +6.2 | 64.6% | 64.4% | 531 | |
| 3 | Washington Commanders | +6.1 | 63.5% | 66.3% | 468 | |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | +3.6 | 60.0% | 59.5% | 458 | |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +3.0 | 55.7% | 60.3% | 517 | |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | +2.7 | 57.3% | 63.6% | 536 | |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | +1.5 | 57.4% | 61.6% | 577 | |
| 8 | Buffalo Bills | +1.2 | 56.7% | 55.2% | 547 | |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | +1.1 | 58.5% | 62.2% | 545 | |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | +0.6 | 54.1% | 58.8% | 495 | |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | +0.3 | 53.0% | 50.3% | 508 | |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | -0.5 | 55.5% | 54.6% | 551 | |
| 13 | New York Jets | -0.9 | 54.9% | 63.3% | 466 | |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | -1.2 | 61.2% | 57.6% | 464 | |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.3 | 57.2% | 59.4% | 545 | |
| 16 | Houston Texans | -1.9 | 54.4% | 59.0% | 517 | |
| 17 | New York Giants | -1.9 | 52.6% | 57.2% | 473 | |
| 18 | Las Vegas Raiders | -2.0 | 55.9% | 59.9% | 481 | |
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.0 | 53.7% | 52.3% | 462 | |
| 20 | Los Angeles Rams | -2.1 | 57.6% | 56.7% | 526 | |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints | -2.5 | 56.6% | 58.3% | 548 | |
| 22 | Cleveland Browns | -2.9 | 56.8% | 56.5% | 528 | |
| 23 | Denver Broncos | -3.2 | 50.7% | 56.3% | 436 | |
| 24 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.4 | 55.3% | 57.0% | 564 | |
| 25 | New England Patriots | -3.5 | 57.2% | 59.5% | 528 | |
| 26 | Detroit Lions | -3.6 | 53.8% | 57.1% | 496 | |
| 27 | Chicago Bears | -4.5 | 50.2% | 52.0% | 492 | |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | -4.6 | 52.6% | 56.4% | 511 | |
| 29 | Carolina Panthers | -4.8 | 52.4% | 59.5% | 538 | |
| 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.3 | 49.5% | 53.8% | 535 | |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -5.7 | 50.6% | 56.2% | 510 | |
| 32 | Atlanta Falcons | -9.2 | 52.0% | 52.5% | 567 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
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