Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2017 NFL leaders, updated Oct 10, 2026. Seattle Seahawks led the league in pass rate over expected at +4.0, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2017 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2017 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | +4.0 | 58.2% | 60.3% | 588 | Read |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | +3.0 | 53.4% | 61.9% | 474 | Read |
| 3 | New England Patriots | +3.0 | 60.6% | 59.0% | 528 | Read |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | +1.9 | 57.8% | 59.4% | 488 | Read |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | +1.8 | 59.4% | 63.6% | 498 | Read |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +1.7 | 56.8% | 62.6% | 518 | Read |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +1.0 | 59.3% | 59.6% | 482 | Read |
| 8 | Los Angeles Chargers | +0.3 | 58.4% | 59.8% | 498 | Read |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | +0.3 | 57.9% | 56.8% | 537 | Read |
| 10 | Washington Commanders | +0.1 | 55.9% | 59.7% | 478 | Read |
| 11 | New York Giants | 0.0 | 56.7% | 62.5% | 545 | Read |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | -0.4 | 57.3% | 60.5% | 482 | Read |
| 13 | Miami Dolphins | -0.4 | 57.0% | 64.3% | 430 | Read |
| 14 | Cleveland Browns | -0.5 | 48.8% | 62.0% | 494 | Read |
| 15 | Los Angeles Rams | -0.5 | 62.3% | 55.6% | 461 | Read |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | -0.6 | 58.4% | 62.2% | 510 | Read |
| 17 | New Orleans Saints | -1.1 | 57.1% | 56.5% | 457 | Read |
| 18 | San Francisco 49ers | -1.1 | 56.6% | 62.0% | 541 | Read |
| 19 | Atlanta Falcons | -2.0 | 55.8% | 56.7% | 529 | Read |
| 20 | Las Vegas Raiders | -2.0 | 54.9% | 61.9% | 443 | Read |
| 21 | Minnesota Vikings | -2.2 | 55.0% | 53.7% | 471 | Read |
| 22 | Houston Texans | -2.9 | 54.7% | 56.4% | 506 | Read |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | -3.2 | 58.5% | 57.1% | 424 | Read |
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | -3.6 | 51.7% | 53.1% | 551 | Read |
| 25 | Tennessee Titans | -3.8 | 51.2% | 55.2% | 562 | Read |
| 26 | Denver Broncos | -4.0 | 50.9% | 58.1% | 434 | Read |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | -4.5 | 49.8% | 52.7% | 540 | Read |
| 28 | Indianapolis Colts | -4.7 | 50.0% | 55.1% | 470 | Read |
| 29 | New York Jets | -4.8 | 51.7% | 57.3% | 524 | Read |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -5.8 | 50.3% | 52.0% | 511 | Read |
| 31 | Buffalo Bills | -6.2 | 49.9% | 52.5% | 531 | Read |
| 32 | Chicago Bears | -7.9 | 45.6% | 55.1% | 388 | Read |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
- Screen Pass Rate
- No-Huddle Rate
- RPO Rate
- Light Box Rate
- Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- Throwaway Rate
- Catchable Throw Rate
- Out-of-Pocket Rate
- Time to Throw
- Aggressiveness
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