Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2024 NFL leaders, updated Aug 13, 2026. Cincinnati Bengals led the league in pass rate over expected at +8.9, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2024 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2024 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | +8.9 | 66.2% | 65.6% | 538 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | +5.6 | 59.3% | 60.0% | 602 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | +4.7 | 59.8% | 58.0% | 480 |
| 4 | New York Jets | +2.9 | 58.5% | 64.4% | 537 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | +2.1 | 59.1% | 63.7% | 477 |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | +1.2 | 55.8% | 57.2% | 514 |
| 7 | Houston Texans | +1.0 | 58.6% | 59.6% | 497 |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | +0.9 | 58.0% | 65.5% | 490 |
| 9 | Washington Commanders | +0.4 | 53.5% | 52.8% | 473 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +0.2 | 55.8% | 56.5% | 527 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Raiders | -0.4 | 53.8% | 64.8% | 545 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | -1.0 | 55.9% | 55.5% | 512 |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | -1.4 | 52.1% | 59.3% | 463 |
| 14 | Buffalo Bills | -1.6 | 53.7% | 53.1% | 467 |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | -1.6 | 53.8% | 60.4% | 459 |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | -1.7 | 57.5% | 61.6% | 558 |
| 17 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.8 | 55.1% | 55.5% | 463 |
| 18 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.1 | 51.6% | 55.6% | 467 |
| 19 | New England Patriots | -2.3 | 52.2% | 57.1% | 467 |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | -2.4 | 53.2% | 59.0% | 526 |
| 21 | New York Giants | -2.5 | 51.1% | 60.9% | 497 |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.0 | 50.5% | 58.9% | 465 |
| 23 | Los Angeles Rams | -3.2 | 52.2% | 57.6% | 548 |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -3.3 | 53.6% | 53.0% | 470 |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | -4.7 | 51.4% | 57.6% | 461 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.9 | 51.2% | 51.3% | 582 |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | -6.8 | 50.1% | 56.5% | 485 |
| 28 | Baltimore Ravens | -7.0 | 48.4% | 47.9% | 455 |
| 29 | Atlanta Falcons | -7.5 | 53.1% | 54.9% | 591 |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | -7.5 | 48.1% | 52.7% | 549 |
| 31 | Green Bay Packers | -7.6 | 46.3% | 49.4% | 469 |
| 32 | Philadelphia Eagles | -7.8 | 47.8% | 45.1% | 506 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
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