Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2024 NFL leaders, updated Nov 12, 2026. Cincinnati Bengals led the league in pass rate over expected at +8.9, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2024 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2024 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2026 numbers that says something real about 2027 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | +8.9 | 66.2% | 65.6% | 538 | Read |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | +5.6 | 59.3% | 60.0% | 602 | Read |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | +4.7 | 59.8% | 58.0% | 480 | Read |
| 4 | New York Jets | +2.9 | 58.5% | 64.4% | 537 | Read |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | +2.1 | 59.1% | 63.7% | 477 | Read |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | +1.2 | 55.8% | 57.2% | 514 | Read |
| 7 | Houston Texans | +1.0 | 58.7% | 59.6% | 496 | Read |
| 8 | Cleveland Browns | +0.9 | 58.0% | 65.5% | 490 | Read |
| 9 | Washington Commanders | +0.4 | 53.5% | 52.8% | 473 | Read |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +0.2 | 55.8% | 56.5% | 527 | Read |
| 11 | Las Vegas Raiders | -0.4 | 53.8% | 64.8% | 545 | Read |
| 12 | Los Angeles Chargers | -1.0 | 55.9% | 55.5% | 512 | Read |
| 13 | Carolina Panthers | -1.4 | 52.1% | 59.3% | 463 | Read |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | -1.6 | 53.8% | 60.4% | 459 | Read |
| 15 | Buffalo Bills | -1.7 | 53.7% | 53.1% | 467 | Read |
| 16 | Dallas Cowboys | -1.7 | 57.5% | 61.6% | 558 | Read |
| 17 | Arizona Cardinals | -1.8 | 55.1% | 55.5% | 463 | Read |
| 18 | San Francisco 49ers | -2.1 | 51.6% | 55.6% | 467 | Read |
| 19 | New England Patriots | -2.3 | 52.2% | 57.1% | 467 | Read |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | -2.4 | 53.2% | 59.0% | 526 | Read |
| 21 | New York Giants | -2.5 | 51.1% | 60.9% | 497 | Read |
| 22 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -3.0 | 50.5% | 58.9% | 465 | Read |
| 23 | Los Angeles Rams | -3.2 | 52.2% | 57.6% | 548 | Read |
| 24 | Detroit Lions | -3.3 | 53.6% | 53.0% | 470 | Read |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | -4.7 | 51.4% | 57.6% | 461 | Read |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.9 | 51.2% | 51.3% | 582 | Read |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | -6.8 | 48.4% | 47.9% | 455 | Read |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans | -6.8 | 50.1% | 56.5% | 485 | Read |
| 29 | Atlanta Falcons | -7.5 | 53.1% | 54.9% | 591 | Read |
| 30 | Indianapolis Colts | -7.5 | 48.1% | 52.7% | 549 | Read |
| 31 | Green Bay Packers | -7.6 | 46.3% | 49.4% | 469 | Read |
| 32 | Philadelphia Eagles | -7.8 | 47.8% | 45.1% | 506 | Read |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- QB Composite Rating
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
- Screen Pass Rate
- No-Huddle Rate
- RPO Rate
- Light Box Rate
- Quarterbacks vs the Blitz
- Throwaway Rate
- Catchable Throw Rate
- Out-of-Pocket Rate
- Time to Throw
- Aggressiveness
Follow the football you care about. Players, teams, stat boards — press Follow on any of them, and that is what your weekly email is made of. Nothing you didn't ask for.
Use Muffed in your AI
Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.