Pass Rate Over Expected Leaders
Pass Rate Over Expected — 2021 NFL leaders, updated Aug 13, 2026. Kansas City Chiefs led the league in pass rate over expected at +9.9, ahead of 31 other qualifying teams. Based on verified 2021 play-by-play data (nflverse); Half-PPR scoring. Through the 2021 season.
Every game state has an expected pass rate: down, distance, score and clock together say how often a league-average offense would throw. Pass rate over expected measures how far a team drifts from that. It is the stickiest team-level tendency measured — coordinators keep their identity year over year — which makes it one of the few 2025 numbers that says something real about 2026 volume. The neutral-script column beside it is the plain answer to the plain question: with the game close and the clock not yet an argument, how often did this offense throw? A team can lead the league in the first column and sit mid-pack in the second, and that combination describes an offense that throws in the spots nobody expects rather than one that throws constantly.
| # | Team | PROE | Neutral Pass% | Pass% | Neutral Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | +9.9 | 62.1% | 63.1% | 551 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +8.5 | 65.2% | 67.2% | 515 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | +5.0 | 63.6% | 61.0% | 470 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | +4.3 | 60.1% | 63.4% | 551 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | +4.2 | 58.2% | 59.4% | 576 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | +3.2 | 61.6% | 61.4% | 492 |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | +2.8 | 60.2% | 60.5% | 518 |
| 8 | Dallas Cowboys | +2.3 | 55.7% | 59.9% | 551 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Raiders | +1.9 | 58.6% | 62.3% | 543 |
| 10 | New York Jets | +0.7 | 57.5% | 63.7% | 471 |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals | +0.6 | 59.7% | 56.9% | 457 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | +0.3 | 58.0% | 58.8% | 479 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | -0.3 | 59.4% | 63.9% | 478 |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | -0.5 | 58.1% | 61.5% | 515 |
| 15 | New York Giants | -0.8 | 56.6% | 60.4% | 548 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | -0.9 | 51.2% | 59.4% | 523 |
| 17 | Baltimore Ravens | -1.2 | 53.1% | 56.8% | 540 |
| 18 | Seattle Seahawks | -1.5 | 52.1% | 57.2% | 489 |
| 19 | Chicago Bears | -1.6 | 46.9% | 56.3% | 437 |
| 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.8 | 53.4% | 62.3% | 427 |
| 21 | Minnesota Vikings | -2.2 | 55.9% | 58.7% | 540 |
| 22 | Washington Commanders | -2.5 | 52.6% | 55.7% | 548 |
| 23 | Houston Texans | -2.8 | 53.7% | 58.4% | 460 |
| 24 | Indianapolis Colts | -3.6 | 51.9% | 53.4% | 472 |
| 25 | Denver Broncos | -4.5 | 53.6% | 56.5% | 496 |
| 26 | New England Patriots | -4.9 | 50.1% | 54.4% | 463 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -5.1 | 50.3% | 59.7% | 459 |
| 28 | Cleveland Browns | -5.2 | 53.0% | 54.6% | 470 |
| 29 | Philadelphia Eagles | -5.6 | 51.0% | 49.4% | 506 |
| 30 | New Orleans Saints | -6.0 | 52.5% | 52.2% | 547 |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | -6.6 | 48.0% | 52.9% | 492 |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | -7.7 | 50.7% | 52.0% | 471 |
Other seasons
More leaderboards
- Rushing Yards Over Expected
- Target Share
- Running Back Receiving Efficiency
- Completion Percentage Over Expected
- Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt
- Quarterback Pressure Rate
- Defensive Blitz Rate
- Quarterbacks vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Clean-Core Rating
- Usage vs Production
- Team Expected Points Added
- Quarterback EPA per Dropback
- Air Yards Share
- Stacked Box Rate
- Regression Flags
- Weighted Opportunity Rating
- Snap Share
- Pass-Snap Share
- Receiving Yards per Pass Snap
- Availability
- Tight End Receiving Efficiency
- Tight End Average Depth of Target
- Stat Stickiness
- Play-Action Rate
- Pre-Snap Motion Rate
- Drop Rate
- Contested Catch Rate
- Interception-Worthy Throw Rate
- Quarterback-Fault Sack Rate
- Quarterback Intended Air Yards
- Team Air Yards and Passing Volume
- Receiver Separation and Cushion
- Wide Receiver Receiving Efficiency
- Team Success Rate and Explosive Play Rate
- Goal-Line Usage
- Quarterback Deep Ball
- Team Pace
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