Week 5
Tyler Allgeier is still first through five weeks: 40.0% of his 35 carries have come against eight or more defenders in the box, up from 37.5%, on a week of three carries against the Lions. Derrick Henry is still second at 32.7% on 113 carries, and he finished +6.5 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) on 24 carries against the Falcons. Braelon Allen went from 24th to ninth, 21.2% to 26.3%, and still finished +33.3 on 24 carries for 116 yards against the Browns. Omarion Hampton went from 31st to 13th, 16.9% to 24.7%, and it showed: -31.4 on 14 carries for 33 yards against the Broncos. J.K. Dobbins went from 42nd to 28th, 10.9% to 18.8%, after 18 carries against the Chargers. The other way, Christian McCaffrey went from sixth to 14th after 11 carries against the Seahawks, Rhamondre Stevenson from seventh to 20th after 13 against the Raiders, and Aaron Jones from 12th to 23rd after 25 against the Saints. The floor is 30 carries: 42 backs clear it, Jadarian Price, fourth a week ago, no longer does, and six of last week's top ten are still in it. Five of the top ten are above zero on yards over expected and five are below. At five games a box rate says more about a back's offense than about him; read it beside the yards-over-expected board.
Week 4
Tyler Allgeier is first through four weeks: 12 of his 32 carries have come against eight or more defenders in the box, 37.5%, after five of his eight against the Giants did. David Montgomery, first a week ago, is fifth, 40.5% to 31.9%: none of his 10 carries against the Cowboys came into a stacked box. Derrick Henry went from third to second at 33.7% of 89 carries, and he is still +14.9 in rushing yards over expected (RYOE). Chuba Hubbard is this week's counterexample: nine of his 20 carries against the Lions came into a stacked box and he still finished +55.5 over expected, which took him from 27th to 14th. Christian McCaffrey went from 22nd to sixth after eight of 15 against the Broncos, and Kyren Williams from fourth to 15th after none of 16 against the Eagles. Of the top ten backs here, four are above zero on yards over expected and six are below. The floor is 24 carries: 47 backs clear it, and eight of last week's top ten are still in it. At four games a box rate is still a few game plans' memory; read it beside the yards-over-expected board.
Week 3
David Montgomery is first through three weeks: 15 of his 37 carries have come against eight or more defenders, 40.5 percent, the highest rate on the board, for minus 14.4 rushing yards over expected. Chase Brown, first a week ago, is sixth, 44 percent to 33: none of his 13 carries against the Steelers came into a stacked box. Of the top ten backs here, three are above zero on yards over expected and seven are below. Derrick Henry is still the case for the stat: third at 38 percent of 66 carries and plus 30.8 over expected. Aaron Jones went from 11th to fifth after nine of his 17 carries against the Buccaneers came into a stacked box, minus 31.7 over expected that day, and Breece Hall went from 19th to eighth, 21 percent to 29. The floor is 18 carries now: 45 backs clear it, four appear and two no longer qualify. Seven of last week's top ten are still in it. At three games a box rate is still mostly one game plan's memory; read it beside the yards-over-expected board.
Week 2
Chase Brown is still first through two weeks: 44 percent of his 36 carries have come against eight or more defenders, the highest rate on the board through two weeks, for minus 12.2 rushing yards over expected. Of the ten backs at the top of this board, six are above zero on yards over expected and four are below. Derrick Henry is the case for the stat: 40 percent of 40 carries into a stacked box and still plus 25.8 over expected. Kyren Williams went from 17th to fourth after Monday night against the Giants, 18 percent to 39, and James Cook from 26th to fifth, 8 percent to 35, and Cook is third on yards over expected at plus 56.4. Ashton Jeanty went from fifth to second, 41 percent on 44 carries. The board grew from 34 backs to 43 with nobody leaving. Six of last week's top ten are still in it. At two games a box rate is mostly the memory of one game plan, so read it beside the yards-over-expected board.