Jaylen Warren

Steelers · RB

Where he ranks — 2026

6 leaderboards

What these mean: light box rate · rushing yards over expected · receiving efficiency · stacked box rate · target share · air yards share

2026 — through Week 7
Scored Half-PPR
Pos. rank
—
Half-PPR / game
12.3
Last game
—
2025
RB16
12.3/g

Jaylen Warren by situation

2026 season, through Week 7

Jaylen Warren averages -0.02 expected points added per carry against a light box of six or fewer, T-18th of 48 qualified running backs.

Light box (6 or fewer)

49 carries · 58.3% of his carries
Yards per carryIn situation5.0Overall5.5Rank13th of 48
EPA per carryIn situation-0.02Overall+0.06RankT-18th of 48
Success rateIn situation44.9%Overall44.0%Rank18th of 48

Board: Light Box Rate

Stacked box (8 or more)

1 carry

Not enough stacked-box carries yet.

Board: Stacked Box Rate

vs the blitz

4 targets · 13.3% of his targets

Not enough blitzed targets yet.

Board: Quarterbacks vs the Blitz · Defensive Blitz Rate

On play-action

7 targets · 23.3% of his targets

Not enough play-action targets yet.

Board: Play-Action Rate

With motion

12 targets · 40.0% of his targets
Yards per targetIn situation10.6Otherwise7.3Rank—
Air yards per targetIn situation-0.2Otherwise-1.8Rank—
Catch rateIn situation75.0%Otherwise66.7%Rank—
EPA per targetIn situation-0.01Otherwise+0.09Rank—

Board: Pre-Snap Motion Rate

QB out of pocket

1 target · 3.3% of his targets

Not enough out-of-pocket targets yet.

Board: Out-of-Pocket Rate

Catchable targets

23 targets · 76.7% of his targets
Yards per targetIn situation11.2Otherwise0.0Rank—
Air yards per targetIn situation-2.0Otherwise1.6Rank—
Catch rateIn situation91.3%Otherwise0.0%Rank—
EPA per targetIn situation+0.36Otherwise-0.98Rank—

Board: Catchable Throw Rate · Drop Rate

Contested targets

Not enough contested targets yet.

Board: Contested Catch Rate

Rates show at 10 or more carries and targets in a situation. Ranks are among running backs with 20 or more targets in the situation and 40 overall (backs on the ground: 15 or more carries in the box), and T- marks a shared rank. Blitzed means five or more pass rushers.

Data via nflverse / FTN Data via nflverse (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Steelers backfield and handcuffs — the depth chart behind him, refreshed daily.

Week 7Oct 26, 2026

Jaylen Warren — Week 7: 101 Yards, 5 of 6 on Third Down

Warren ran 18 times for 101 yards against the Saints, converting 5 of his 6 third-down carries, and caught 3 of 4 targets for 36 yards, in Pittsburgh's 16-10 win in Paris.

Read the full episode →

More episodes

  • Week 6Oct 21, 2026

    Jaylen Warren — Week 6: Two Catches That Moved Drives

    Warren ran 14 times for 50 yards, none into an eight-man box, and caught 2 of 4 targets for 28 yards against the Buccaneers, one of them on the winning overtime drive, in Pittsburgh's 26-19 overtime win on the road.

  • Week 5Oct 12, 2026

    Jaylen Warren — Week 5: 80-Yard Catch, 50-Yard Run

    Warren ran 15 times for 101 yards and caught all 6 of his targets for 87 yards against the Colts, scoring on an 80-yard catch and a 50-yard run in a 34-22 win in Pittsburgh.

  • Week 4Oct 6, 2026

    Jaylen Warren — Week 4: Seventeen Carries, Ninety-Three Yards

    Warren carried 17 of Pittsburgh's 19 rushes for 93 yards, with a 24-yarder and seven rushing first downs, and caught 3 of 6 targets for 33 yards, including a 13-yarder on second and fourteen on the fourth-quarter touchdown drive, in a 27–24 loss to the Browns.

  • Week 3Sep 28, 2026

    Jaylen Warren — Week 3: Career-High Yards From Scrimmage

    Warren carried 17 times for 127 yards and caught 3 of 4 targets for 49, a career-high 176 yards from scrimmage, with a 35-yard run and a 26-yarder to the Cincinnati 6 on the drive to the winning field goal. An 87-yard run to the Cincinnati 5 counts as 6 yards after a DK Metcalf holding penalty. Rico Dowdle was out, per NBC Sports, in a 30–27 win over the Bengals.

  • Week 2Sep 21, 2026

    Jaylen Warren — Week 2: Twenty-Six Yards to the Four

    Warren carried 11 times for 43 yards and caught two of four targets for 34, including a 26-yard catch to the New England 4 with 6:24 left, Pittsburgh's longest play from scrimmage. The next two snaps were a 13-yard sack and an interception. He took 11 of the Steelers' 21 designed runs to Rico Dowdle's seven, in a 20–3 loss to the Patriots.

  • Week 1Sep 14, 2026

    Jaylen Warren — Week 1: Fumble at the Twenty-Five, Fifteen Touches

    Warren caught a short pass for no gain at the Pittsburgh twenty-seven with two forty-eight left in the first quarter, lost the ball, and Atlanta scored three plays later. He finished with ten carries for forty-six yards and five catches on six targets for twenty-seven, the most touches of any Steeler, with runs of eight and seventeen on the first drive after Pittsburgh went up 20–10, in a 20–13 win over the Falcons.

  • Camp · Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026

    Jaylen Warren Camp Update — August 31: The Room Shrinks to Three

    Cut-day weekend reduced the Pittsburgh backfield to Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle and seventh-round rookie Eli Heidenreich — Kaleb Johnson traded to Green Bay, Travis Homer released, Lew Nichols waived and unclaimed. Warren sat the finale with the rest of the core players, so the carry split enters the season on one even game of evidence.

  • Camp · Aug 23, 2026Aug 23, 2026

    Jaylen Warren Camp Update — August 23: The First Split Came Out Even

    Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle finally shared a game backfield, and the ledger was almost identical: five carries for seventeen yards for Warren, five for eighteen for Dowdle. After a beat projection had Dowdle taking two-thirds of the snaps, the first live evidence said coin flip.

  • Camp · Aug 16, 2026Aug 17, 2026

    Jaylen Warren Camp Update — August 16: The Beat Says Sixty-Five Percent, and Not for Him

    Mark Kaboly projects Rico Dowdle as the main guy in Pittsburgh's backfield, maybe sixty-five to seventy percent of snaps, while other beat coverage sees an alternating first-team rotation. The June bet on Jaylen Warren was the carry split. The loudest voice just picked against him.

  • 2026 PreviewJun 15, 2026

    Jaylen Warren 2026 Season Preview — a career year, then the Steelers signed a back

    Warren finished as RB16 across 16 games, averaging 12.3 half-PPR points per game in what was a career year. The production leaned on touchdown rate rather than a dominant volume role, which is the kind of efficiency that tends not to repeat at the same level. His 94.1% availability rate from 2021–25 is the sturdier foundation, but the opportunity picture heading into next season is genuinely contested.

    Read the full preview ▾

    Jaylen Warren just posted a career year as Pittsburgh's lead back — and the Steelers immediately went and signed another one. He finished RB16; he's the 20-ninth back off the board. The gap is the value; the new signing is the catch. The Muffed 2026 preview.

    The 2025 season was the best of his career: 211 carries for 958 yards, six touchdowns, +40 catches — 12-three a game, RB19 per game, RB16 in total, on a clean touchdown rate. The signature was a Week 16 against Detroit: a hundred 43 rushing yards, two scores, 29 points. After three years behind Najee Harris, he finally got the lead role and produced with it.

    The arc shows the breakout in context: five-oh, nine-eight, seven-oh, and now 12-three — a backup who took a step up every time his snaps did, and posted a career high the year he led the backfield.

    What the data says: the production is real and the touchdown rate is clean — at 22 percent there's no luck to give back, and the receiving role, 40 catches, is the sticky kind that travels. On his 2025 usage, RB29 is too cheap. The problem isn't the player; it's whether he keeps the workload.

    Because the situation, per the reports, is the whole catch: Pittsburgh signed Rico Dowdle — back-to-back thousand-yard seasons — to a two-year deal, and the June minicamp read is a near-even, interchangeable committee; new head coach Mike McCarthy coached Dowdle in Dallas, which tells you whose fingerprints are on the signing. Warren's answer was to cut seven pounds, to two-oh-eight, saying he feels quicker and more explosive. He's never been a true bell-cow, and the Steelers just paid for a reason he might not become one now.

    The price: pick 79, the 20-ninth back. Verdict: WATCHLIST — his 2025 production says he's underpriced at RB29, but the Dowdle signing turns a clear lead role into a genuine timeshare, and that's exactly why the market discounted him. The counter for him: he's the incumbent who just finished RB16 in total, with a secure passing-down role that floors his value even in a split. Against: teams don't pay a free-agent back to sit, and Warren's never won a workload outright.

    September watch: the carry split with Rico Dowdle — the entire bet; and the receiving usage, the part of his role that survives a committee. If he's one of your guys, this show exists for your whole roster — every player, every week, all season.

  • 2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

    Jaylen Warren 2025 Season in Review

    Read the full review ▾

    Jaylen Warren finished 2025 as the number 17 running back in total PPR scoring and the number 19 running back in PPR per game — solidly inside the back-end-of-RB2 conversation, but not the every-week anchor drafters paid for last summer. His year is the story of a committee that never tipped his way. Kenneth Gainwell ate 114 carries all season, and that ceiling cap is the single biggest reason Warren's per-game number landed where it did. 16 games, efficient on contact, a usable line almost every week — but Pittsburgh never handed him the bell-cow workload that would've pushed him into the top 12.

    Now let's dig into the numbers, because the efficiency case is genuinely strong. He ran 211 times for 958 yards, 4.5 a pop, with 6 rushing scores, and added 40 catches on 45 targets for 333 yards and 2 more touchdowns through the air — a 10 percent target share, real passing-down value for a back. The headline: plus 180.6 rushing yards over expected, eighth among qualified runners, and plus 0.9 yards over expected per carry. He was creating roughly a yard per attempt beyond what the blocking and box count predicted — against stacked fronts, with 32 percent of his carries coming against eight or more defenders in the box. And he was steady. He averaged 13.6 PPR a game and lived in a tight band, with 14 of 16 games landing between 6 and 20 points. Steady floor, not boom-or-bust, with exactly one true spike: 29.1 against Detroit in Week 16 on 143 rushing yards and two scores.

    That Detroit game crystallizes the season. Fourth quarter, Steelers up 15 to 10, second and five from the Lions' 45 — Warren took it left end, untouched, 45 yards to the house. Later in the same quarter, up 22 to 17, first and 10 from the same spot — 45 yards again, left tackle, touchdown. Two explosive runs from identical field position in one quarter, both finishing in the end zone. It was the only game all year Pittsburgh truly let Warren cook, and he answered with the kind of line that hints at what a full workload could look like. The rest of the season was the honest version: efficient touches inside a committee, capped by Gainwell's role and by an offense that ranked just 26th in yards per carry as a team.

Browse every player →

In a Sleeper league? One link sets up everyone in it →

Ask this data a question

Every figure on this page comes out of Muffed's verified panel — and you can query the whole thing in plain English. No account, no key. Ask the data →

Use Muffed in your AI

Ask Claude or ChatGPT football questions and get these verified figures back, with sources. Add https://muffed.ai/api/mcp — free, no account, no API key.

Add to Claude · Set up in ChatGPT · How it works →

Every figure on this page is recomputed from public play-by-play, not copied from a box score — how we verify every number.